Man City take on Southampton at the Etihad, and it looks like just another routine 3 points for the Champions, and this season’s Premier League favourites.
These matches are now just a matter of routine, and the betting options aren’t about City winning, but more about how many the Blues are going to win by.
City are just 1/9 to win another home match. The draw is 10/1, and a Southampton win is 30/1. There’s obviously no value in backing City, and no one living in the real world surely gives the Saints any chance?
So where is the value?
Again we have to turn to the handicap markets, and the match result with overs and unders included. In the handicap markets, City at -3 is 23/10 with Betfair, while they are 10/11 at -2.
In the match result and over/under 2.5 goals market, City to win and there to be over 2.5 goals is a best price of just 2/5, which is a bit short. Rather than backing that, I would probably look at City -2, as that is 10/11, and requires City to score 3 (or more) goals.
Backing City to win and over 2.5 goals does cover a 2-1 win to the Blues, but if there is to be 3 goals scored, the chances are that Pep’s team will score them all.
City to win and there be over 3.5 goals is more backable, at 10/11, but again, unless Southampton score, you would need City to score 4 goals to bring that bet in. Again, making City at -2 better value, as a 3-0 win would bring the bet in.
This is why I’m going to plump for the handicap bet. It’s served us well so far this season, and it’s coming in at just under even money, which is our preferred price.
At the moment we are well ahead with our tips so far this season, you can check out our free tips results here. It’s bound to go wrong today, now I’ve said all that!!
Moving forward, I will be posting all tips on Twitter, and screen shoting them for proof. The tweets have the date and time on, showing that all the tips are published pre match. This will act as proof that I’m not doctoring results after the match to make the results look better.
Back to today’s match, and kick off is at 3pm at City’s Etihad Stadium. Unfortunately, the match isn’t live on TV in the UK.
— footballgambler (@footballgambler) November 4, 2018