Implied probability is the percentage chance of an outcome happening based on the bookmaker’s odds.
It converts betting odds into a simple, clear percentage so you can understand:
- how likely the bookmaker thinks an event is
- whether a price offers value
- how to compare your own predictions to the market
- how bookmakers build their margin
If you want to bet smarter, implied probability is one of the most important concepts to learn.
✅ What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability shows you the real chance the bookmaker’s odds represent.
Example:
Odds of 2.00 → 50% chance
Odds of 4.00 → 25% chance
Odds of 1.25 → 80% chance
It turns odds into a percentage that’s easier to understand.
✅ How to Calculate Implied Probability
Decimal Odds Formula
The simplest method:
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
Example:
Decimal odds of 1.80 → 1 ÷ 1.80 = 55.56%
Fractional Odds Formula
Implied Probability = Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator)
Example:
Fractional odds 5/2 → 2 ÷ (5 + 2) = 28.57%
American Odds Formula
✅ For positive odds (+200)
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
Example:
+150 → 100 / (150 + 100) = 40%
✅ For negative odds (–200)
Implied Probability = Odds / (Odds + 100)
(Use absolute value)
Example:
–200 → 200 / (200 + 100) = 66.67%
✅ Implied Probability Chart (Quick Reference)
| Decimal Odds | Fractional | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | 1/5 | 83.3% |
| 1.50 | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | Evens | 50% |
| 2.50 | 6/4 | 40% |
| 3.00 | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| 4.00 | 3/1 | 25% |
| 6.00 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
This helps users quickly interpret odds at a glance.
✅ Why Implied Probability Matters in Football Betting
Understanding implied probability allows you to:
✅ 1. Spot Value
If your own calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker’s → value bet.
✅ 2. Avoid Bad Prices
Odds may look good but represent poor value when converted to probability.
✅ 3. Compare Markets Effectively
A team that looks “short” at 1.60 might not be if your data gives them a 70% chance.
✅ 4. Understand Market Moves
When odds shorten, implied probability increases.
✅ 5. See Bookmaker Margins Clearly
Your probability sums will exceed 100% because of the overround.
✅ Implied Probability & Value Betting
This is where the concept becomes powerful.
Example:
Bookmaker odds: 2.40
Implied probability → 1 ÷ 2.40 = 41.67%
If your analysis shows:
Chance = 50%
✅ Your probability is higher
✅ The bookmaker is underestimating the team
✅ This is a value bet
Implied probability bridges the gap between your judgment and the bookmaker’s line.
✅ Implied Probability & Market Bias
Public betting can distort implied probability.
Examples:
- Favourites often have inflated implied probabilities
- Underdogs often have suppressed implied probabilities
- Big clubs (Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal) attract public money
- TV matches bring skewed markets
- Derby matches often push odds too far
The true probability and the market probability are not always the same.
Value bettors exploit the difference.
✅ Using Implied Probability to Analyse Markets
✅ 1. Compare markets across bookmakers
Different implied probabilities indicate potential mispricing.
✅ 2. Track closing line probability
This shows where the market settled after receiving all information.
✅ 3. Check probability vs form
If implied probability doesn’t match performance metrics (xG, shots, defensive data), a value spot may exist.
✅ 4. Use probability ranges
Teams rarely move more than 3–5 percentage points without news — bigger shifts are meaningful.
✅ Overround: Why Implied Probability Totals Over 100%
When you convert all outcomes in a market (e.g., 1X2) to probabilities, they will exceed 100%.
Example:
- Home: 1.80 → 55.56%
- Draw: 3.60 → 27.78%
- Away: 4.50 → 22.22%
Total = 105.56%
The extra 5.56% is the bookmaker’s margin (overround).
Understanding this helps you evaluate which bookmakers offer fairer prices.
✅ Safer Gambling Advice
Probability helps you make more informed bets — but it doesn’t guarantee outcomes.
Always:
- bet with a fixed stake
- use clear limits
- avoid chasing losses
- treat probability as a guide, not a certainty
- take breaks when needed
- use GAMSTOP or self-exclusion tools if betting becomes problematic
Betting should be enjoyable, not financial pressure.