Any Next Manager Betting market on Betfair can be very erratic. And – in my view – should be treated with extreme caution.
The same rules of caution also apply if you are getting involved in any next manager to be sacked betting markets.
Next Manager Market On Betfair Betting Tips
Tips I can give from my experiences trading this market are to be very careful, as you are effectively betting on – or trading – a market against people who know a lot more than you do. I believe it is the equivalent of playing cards against someone who knows your hand.
After a manager is sacked and a new market goes live, a lot of the immediate bets are placed on pure speculation. This is when you can get some good price swings.
After a while the market settles down. Then suddenly a name emerges out of the pack and gets backed right in.
This price movement can happen without press speculation, and has most probably happened because someone (an agent, or the Chairman’s son, etc) knows this candidate is the clubs preferred choice.
Or it could be that the candidate has already verbally agreed to take the job. And this person has then told a few people, and they have all got on at good prices…. this is what I mean when I say it’s like playing cards with someone who already knows your hand.
Watch The Media – Especially Newspapers
If you are to trade these markets on Betfair, some tips I have picked up over the years is to keep an eye on the (online) newspapers.
If a newspaper is running a story in it’s morning print edition, it will be showing online the previous night. In these instances the price will almost certainly shorten. If you can be on at that price before the hoards are, you can trade out pretty quickly for a profit.
I would generally always trade out in these circumstances. This is because these kind of stories can happen when no one really knows who the next manager will be. So you can’t always trust the story to be too accurate.
Back First And Lay Second At Long Odds
Also, in a market that is dragging on a bit you will almost certainly get massive price gaps in some of the outsiders prices. You can nearly always find a situation where someone will be 20 to back and 30 to lay. Or 40 to back, and 60 to lay, etc.
In these situations you can put a few quid up to back at 30. After that bet is matched, put a few quid up to lay at 20. I have found you can place these bets at night, and they have been matched in the morning. Do this a few times and you can green up your book quite nicely. Even without having a clue who will get the job. The risk is also fairly minimal, as you are only putting a few quid on to back first.
In these instances I would always back first. The worst case scenario is the manager will drift in the betting, and you might lose your few quid you used to back at long odds. If you lay at long odds first, and that suddenly gets backed in, then you’re in big trouble. So always back first in theses scenarios!!!
Ultimately, just take extreme care when trading Next Manager markets.