Next Manager Betting markets on Betfair can be very erratic, and – in my view – should be treated with extreme caution (there speaks a man who has had his fingers burnt himself). The same rules of caution also apply if you are getting involved in any next manager to be sacked betting markets.
For those not familiar with this market, or where to find it on Betfair, you will first need to click ‘Football’ in the ‘All Sports’ menu down the left hand side of the betting exchange.
When in the Football section, you need to scroll down the Football menu – again on the left hand side – until you get to ‘Specials’ (it’s done in alphabetical order). Click on ‘Specials’ and you will see any available Next Manager Betting markets listed in this menu, alongside markets like PFA Player of the Year.
Tips I can give from my experiences trading this market are to be very careful, as you are effectively betting on – or trading – a market against people who know a lot more than you do. I believe it is the equivalent of playing cards against someone who knows your hand.
When a manager is sacked and a new market goes live, to start with a lot of bets are placed on speculation, and this is when you can get some good price swings. After a while the market settles down, then all of a sudden a name emerges out of the pack and gets backed right in.
This price movement can happen without press speculation, and has most probably happened because someone (an agent, or the Chief Exec’s son, etc) knows this candidate is the clubs preferred choice, or that the candidate has already verbally agreed to take the job, and this person has then told a few people and they have all got on at good prices…. this is what I mean when I say it’s like playing cards with someone who already knows your hand.
If you are to trade these markets on Betfair, some tips I have picked up over the years is to keep an eye on the (online) newspapers late at night. If a newspaper is running a story in it’s morning print edition about a candidate for the job, then the price will almost certainly shorten. If you can be on at that price before the hoards are, you can trade out pretty quickly for a profit.
I would generally always trade out in these circumstances because these kind of stories can happen when no one really has a clue who the next manager will be, so you can’t always trust the story to be too accurate.
Also, in a market that is dragging on a bit you will almost certainly get massive price gaps in some of the outsiders prices. You can nearly always find a situation where someone will be 20 to back and 30 to lay, or 40 to back and 60 to lay, etc.
In these situations you can put a few quid up to back at 30, and then when it gets matched, you can put a few quid up to lay at 20. I have found you can usually place these bets at night, and they have been matched in the morning. Do this a few times and you can green up your book quite nicely, even without having a clue who will get the job. The risk is also fairly minimal, as you are only putting a few quid on to back first.
In these instances I would always back first. The worst case scenario is then that the manager will drift in the betting, and you might lose your few quid you used to back him at long odds. If you lay the manager (at long odds) first, and he suddenly gets backed in, then you are going to be in big trouble. So always back first in theses scenarios!!!
Ultimately, just take extreme care when trading Next Manager markets, as you will get your fingers burnt if you go in recklessly. You can open a new Betfair account here and claim their new accounts free bet.