Correct score trading on the Betfair Betting Exchange is now a massively popular football trading method.
It’s increasing popularity has almost made it an industry in itself, with hundreds of thousands of pounds traded on the correct score market on live TV matches, and big matches in general.
The increase in correct score trading popularity, is as a result of football traders realising that there are far more methods to trading, than just the conventional 90 minutes match result market.
Best Football Betting Sites
Trading the correct score is a massive industry, both pre match, and in-play. Betting exchanges are needed to do this, and the most efficient exchange has to be Betfair. Below is their Sportsbook new customer offer, for the exchange offer, click here.
Betfair have the best liquidity, for both pre match and in-play. There are others, such as Betdaq and Smarkets, but at the moment, Betfair is the easiest to use.
Correct Score Trading Pre Match
Trading this market pre match can also be very profitable in the long term. To do this, focus on percentages of your betting bank, rather than the actual amount of money.
A one tick trade on a high correct score price (ie, back at 10.5, lay at 10), can see a profit of around 1 to 1.5% of your betting bank. A 1% profit (of betting bank) should be fairly easy to obtain quite regularly trading this market.
If you start off with £100.00 in your bank, and make 1% a day for a year, you would have over £3000.00 after 12 months. Times that by ten, and you can see how profitable trading small percentage can be.
Trading 1-1 Correct Score
Trading the 1-1 score line is a popular trading option. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of it. I believe there is too much that can go wrong with this trade, with the potential rewards, far too short.
Backing 1-1 For A Trade
If you are backing 1-1 for a trade, you can’t really have a goal within the first 5 to 10 minutes. That will mean that that the new lay odds are longer than they were when you backed them.
This gives you two options. You can trade out for a loss. Or, you wait for the odds to shift back in your favour, risking another goal and your bet losing.
If the first goal comes from 15 minutes onward’s into into the match, then you will have a marginal profit. The closer to half time, probably the greater the profit. While if it comes late into the second half, the chance to trade out is already gone.
On the flip side, if a goal doesn’t arrive until the early part of the second half, then you should have a reasonable profit.
Likewise if it is 1-1 at half time, then the odds would be around 4.4 to lay, giving you a decent profit. As you originally backed at around 7.2.
Match selection is key here. There is no chance using Liverpool V Burnley for this sort of trade. You would need something like Brighton V West Ham, a match with both sides likely to score, but not score many.
Laying 1-1 For A Trade
Conversely, Liverpool V Burnley would be ideal if you are laying 1-1 for a trade. A one sided affair is exactly what you are after. Obviously, you won’t get 7.2 to lay 1-1 at, unless you go in-play, and even then it is not assured.
1-1 in a match like this will be more around the 10/1 to 11/1 mark to lay. This means higher risk, but a greater chance of winning.
Picking teams like Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, etc, for this bet, are the better option. What you are looking for, is for your team to race into a two goal lead. Again, for the risk-to-reward factor, it is not for me.
Maybe this is where I go wrong with trading. Maybe, smaller risks could be what I need after all. And I am missing out on a potential winning trade.
It’s purely a case of what you are comfortable trading. If 1-1 suits you, then that’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with it, it works. As I’ve stated, it’s just not for me.
Assured Soccer Profits
The liquidity in the correct score market is good enough to turn over profits pre match, and it is also strong enough to implement in-play trading methods.
It is that popular on Betfair that whole football trading systems such as Assured Soccer Profits (ASP) have been built on it.
If you think about it, that is a massive investment of time and effort into trading just one market. Assured Soccer Profits shows you which matches to select, when to lay, and then back Correct Scores.
90 Minutes And Over/Under 2.5 Goals Markets
Trading these two markets can also be easily done to make around 1 to 3% profit of your betting bank. This means the correct score market reacts to moves in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market.
Moves in the 90 minutes market, and over/under 2.5 goals markets can also effect the correct score market. Using this knowledge gives us the chance to successfully trade the correct score market and makes profits before a match kicks off.
If you follow the Over/Under 2.5 goals market on Betfair and see that Under 2.5 goals is getting backed in, this means a score like 2-1 would start getting longer (as it is Over 2.5 goals). This means we can lay it, and then back it when it drifts for a profit.
The 2-1 score and Under 2.5 goals can’t both be getting backed in, if they did, there would be a free money arb there for the taking. Meaning a win either way.
Pre Match Trading
A Football Betting System that finds arbs or such anomalies is the Pre Match Trading betting system.
Pre Match Trading uses software that finds prices that are wrong, and allows you to lay or back pre kick off, to ensure a profit is made before a ball is even kicked.
So for example, to use the scenario I referred to above, if Under 2.5 goals was getting backed in, and 2-1 was staying the same, the Pre Match Trading software would pick this up.
By alerting you to this misaligned price, it is giving you the chance to lay 2-1, as you know it is going to drift to keep in line with the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. You would then back 2-1 after it has drifted, for easy risk free money.
I would advise trying out the pre match trading service for a couple of weeks to learn more about trading correct score price movements.
These price movements can be determined on the back of how the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is behaving, and as I referred to above, Pre Match Trading have a great tool that can virtually predict these price movements.
If nothing else, using the service for a couple of weeks will open your eyes to how the markets move….. and remember, you can never learn too much about trading!
Use The Correct Score Market To Bail Out A Losing Trade
The correct score market also gives us the opportunity to try and bail ourselves out of a losing position.
As you can lay the current correct score late on for small stakes, a late goal can save us. And how many times do you see a late goal in a match? Quite often, that is the answer.
For example, you may have backed Manchester United to win away from home at a mid table Premier League team. With 10 minutes to go Man Utd are losing 1-0 and your bet winning looks to be dead in the water.
By this time the current correct score will be trading at roughly 1.5 (1/2). With 5 minutes to go it will be probably be trading at roughly 1.33 (1/3).
So you now have the opportunity to lay it for the price of your original (now losing) bet, and if Manchester United get the late equaliser….. as they often do, you will break even.
Trade On Percentages Rather Money
We believe in football trading it is better to take the greed and emotion out of it, where possible. In other words try not to think of it in £s profit.
Why? Well, the reason is, working in pounds may lead to greed, and greed brings emotion into the equation.
The best way – in our our opinion – to take greed, and emotion out of the equation, is to work in percentages (%) instead.
If you make 1% a day, at the end of the year that will add to a substantial amount. 1% a day is upwards of 30% profit a month, which equates to an enormous return on investment (return on investment is also known as ROI, if you’ve seen it on other websites).
A more conservative trading plan might be 10% a month, or 15% a month. It’s simply up to the individual.
Using this method is also generally better for your bank management. Unless you are betting on a 1/100 shot (which we certainly don’t recommend), using a strategy like the 1% a day target, should mean you are not risking too much of your betting bank.
For example, if you are trying to trade an evens money market on Betfair to extract 1% profit, the chances are that the particular market you are trading won’t move too substantially as it is pre kick off.
So for example, if the market moves from 2 (even money) to 1.95, you are 5% down on one side of the trade. Which when you divide the loss across both sides of the trade will work out at a loss of 2.5%.
This isn’t going to bankrupt your betting bank, and that is the most important thing of all. As without a betting bank, you can’t trade anything.
30% A Month Profit Projections
Look at the figures below for a rough guide to what you could make if you profit by around 30% a month, for a whole year. This is based on starting in January, with a £1000.00 betting bank.
Profiting at 30% of betting bank a month is making far less profit than 1% a day does. You don’t need to start with £1000.00, you can start with as little as you want.
Working on the above theory, you would turn £100.00 into over £2,300 a year profit, with little risk. I can’t think of too many bank accounts paying that much interest.
Like with any trading strategy though, you need to be patient and disciplined. If you work losing days into the equation, your profits will be lower than the above figures.
But even if you are 10 or 20 down on the above figures, you will still be in a hugely profitable situation.
The key point is too not get carried away if you have a losing day. And don’t get greedy thinking about how much you can win. Remember, stick to percentages.
If you follow the plan, the percentages will work out the pounds sterling for you.
1% A Day Profit Results
Below is a chart showing you how much you can make in a month, using the 1% a day equation. Again, starting with £1000.00 at the start of the month.
1 – £1010.00
2 – £1020.10
3 – £1030.30
4 – £1040.60
5 – £1051.00
6 – £1061.51
7 – £1072.12
8 – £1082.84
9 – £1093.66
10 – £1104.59
11 – £1115.63
12 – £1126.78
13 – £1138.04
14 – £1149.42
15 – £1160.91
16 – £1172.51
17 – £1184.23
18 – £1196.07
19 – £1208.03
20 – £1220.11
21 – £1232.31
22 – £1244.63
23 – £1257.07
24 – £1269.64
25 – £1282.33
26 – £1295.15
27 – £1308.10
28 – £1321.18
29 – £1334.39
30 – £1347.73
So as you can see, using 1% a day works out better than 30% a month. Albeit, not by much – just £47.73. You can read more about how to make daily trading profits in our Betting Mastermind Review.
Essentially, they are both pretty much the same though. It’s probably more a case of finding out what works for you best.
1% a day is a very easy equation to work out, and you know exactly where you are on a daily basis. While using the 30% a month formula rounds things up, but you might find yourself half way through the month wondering if you are on target.