Trading Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market Pre Match
I use various football betting systems and trading techniques in my attempts to conquer Betfair, and one such system I like to use is trading the Over/Under 2.5 goals market pre kick off.
- Pre Match Trading Costs £20.00 To Try Out For 2 Weeks – using Pre Match Trading, you can profit from football matches pre kick off. The software spots misaligned prices on the Betfair Betting Exchange, allowing you to place your bets and make a profit before a ball is even kicked.
To trade this market, I generally use a couple of slightly differing systems….. systems I know as the quick in-and-out profit method, and the get in early method.
First, there is the quick in-and-out profit method. I use this method on liquid matches, ie a live Premier League, or Champions League match on Sky. For these games I would wait for the teams to be announced, and then would look for a quick in-and-out profit.
The reason why I would want the teams to be announced first, is because if you only have one half of your trades matched when the teams are announced, the price could swing massively against you depending on who may, or may not be playing.
If Over 2.5 goals was was available to back at 2.00, and to lay at 2.02, I would watch for a while and see which way the market was swinging. If money is piling up on 2.00, I would also lay it as well, and with the fast turnover of money, I would expect to get matched pretty quickly.
I would then put up a back of Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, and I would also put up a lay of Under 2.5 goals at 1.99. The chances are the lay of Under 2.5 goals would be the bet to get matched first. It would be a slightly smaller win, but a less risky trade.
I then have an option. As my other bet (my back of Over 2.5 goals, at 2.02) is probably approaching the front of the queue, I either have to cancel the bet, or I can leave it on, and put up another lay of Over 2.5 goals at 2.00…. and then start the process again.
It’s a matter of reading the market, and making an informed (or not, as my case may be) decision.
The second method I use for trading the Over/Under 2.5 goals market pre kick off is the get in early method.
Using this method, I would look for a smaller match to trade, something like a Championship match live on Sky, and then look to trade the gaps in the market.
I have noticed that if I can get in a few hours before kick off, there can be gaps in the market to trade, and there will be enough liquidity in the market to ensure I get matched.
What happens is the market is yet to fill up with money, leaving gaping holes between prices. I might look at Over 2.5 goals and see that I can lay at 2.10, and back at 2.06, with nothing in between.
In these instances the market doesn’t really know what is going to happen. Depending on the amount of money already available to back at 2.06, and lay at 2.10, will determine my bet.
If there is £25 available to back at 2.06, and £500 available to lay at 2.10, I would probably put a back bet in at 2.08, and a lay bet in at 2.04. If the back bet gets matched (at 2.08), I would then put a lay up at 2.06.
Again, once the 2.06 has been matched, I have a choice, I either cancel my lay at 2.04, or I leave it in there.
The chances are that as we are still a few hours from kick-off, there will still be massive gaps in the market, so I would just put another back bet in at 2.08….. and start the process over again.
It’s amazing how many times I get matched using this method, it’s just a matter of finding a match, watching the market to see how it is behaving, and then placing my backs and lays.
One tip if you are considering using this second method. I usually (I should always do it, but I can forget) check oddschecker to see if the price on Betfair is not out of sync with all the bookmakers.
It can be known that as the big money is yet to arrive, that the price is too far out of sync with the true price, and if you get caught with only one half of you bets matched when the big money arrives, the price could steam in the wrong direction for you, leaving you with a large loss to cover.
In general, I am long gone from these markets before the big money arrives, so it isn’t an issue.
To use these methods, I would recommend using a Betfair account. There are other betting exchanges, but the reason why I use Betfair is simply because of the liquidity.
I would imagine Betdaq would be okay on the big matches, but for the smaller matches used in the get in early method, I wouldn’t dream of using Betdaq or any other betting exchange at the moment, as there just isn’t the liquidity there.
There are subscription services that deal with making money from football trading pre kick off, my Pre Match Trading Review explains their service in detail.
Trading Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market In-Play
In a match with a team like Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, or either of the Manchester clubs at home against a mid to bottom of the table side – if the score is 0-0 at half-time, the odds on Under 2.5 Goals will probably be something in the region of 1.35 – 1.40 to lay.
More often than not a match like this isn’t going to end 0-0, so a lay of Under 2.5 Goals at these odds could represent good value.
Assuming you get a goal in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half, you should be able to trade out for a profit. You do have a choice though. You could just cover your loss, and leave all your profit on Over 2.5 Goals. You can just leave the lay and wait for a second goal, or you can even let the bet run to it’s conclusion.
I would recommend deciding on a strategy and sticking too it, rather than chopping and changing. You will also need a strategy in the event of no goal occurring.
Personally, I usually allow myself 5% of betting bank for the whole bet, but I break the bet down into two parts.
I will lay Under 2.5 Goals (at half time) for 2.5% of betting bank, and I will save the other 2.5% to lay the Correct Score in case I need a late goal.
If I get an early goal, I trade out. If a goal comes after the 65 minute mark and I can’t trade out for a profit, I stay in the bet and hope for a second goal. If the second goal doesn’t come, I lay the Correct Score with my 2.5% and hope for a late goal to cover my bet. If there is no late goal, I lose 5% of betting bank.
If I don’t get a goal at all in the first 25-30 minutes of the 2nd half, I will lay the Correct Score for 2.5% of my betting bank when it gets to Even money, to cover my original 2.5% lay of Under 2.5 Goals at half time. If I get a late goal, I break even, if the match finishes 0-0, I lose 5%.
It is not a risk free bet, but depending on match selection, it comes in more often than not.