Football Betting Systems

Next Tottenham Manager Betting

Southampton manager, Mauricio Pochettino, is still the favourite to be the next Spurs’ boss following Tim Sherwood’s sacking on Tuesday, and since Sherwood’s sacking, Pochettino has been steadily backed in to odds on favourite.

Pochettino is now as short as 2/5 with some bookies and is generally available at 1/2 with the majority. The best price available on him is the 8/13 you can currently get with Ladbrokes.

Previous favourite, Frank de Boer of Ajax, has now drifted out to second favourite and is now a best price of 7/2 with BetVictor.

Of the other candidates, Rafa Benitez is 6/1 with Betfred, and David Moyes is 14/1 with Skybet.

I’m not sure I’d be backing Pochettino at that price, according to Telegraph Sport, he has a clause in his contract saying that Pochettino himself has to pay it up if he leaves early, which could amount to £2M.

One way around this is for Pochettino to pay the contract up, with Spurs giving him a signing on fee to cover the payment. The only problem with that is, can anyone imagine Daniel Levy saying ‘of course we will cover the cost,’ I’d be very surprised.

I’m not saying that I think Pochettino won’t get the job – he may, or he may not – just that a lot of water still has to pass under a lot of bridges for it to happen. I’m not so sure that at heavy odds on favourite, this represents good value on all of this happening.

On the Betfair betting exchange, Pochettino is trading at around the 1.80 – 1.85 mark, but the market has been fairly quiet. With the Manchester United next manager market soon to be concluded, I expect it may liven up somewhat.

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Will A Players Revolt Get David Moyes The Sack?

There’s a story running in today’s Telegraph newspaper that a player’s revolt is threatening the future of David Moyes as manager of Manchester United, with tactics and training methods apparently behind the players unrest.

I’ve read the article a couple of times now and there is nothing substantial in it to make me think about rushing out and backing Moyes to be the next manager sacked.

With United now having endured eight defeats in 17 games in 2014, the patience shown by the majority of Moyes’s players with his tactics and approach to the job is now at breaking point, with Telegraph Sport aware of the concern of squad members over the inability of the manager to arrest the slump. Source: The Telegraph

How much I would be reading into the above paragraph, I don’t know. It’s probably a fact that certain players aren’t happy with Moyes – it’s all but certain that the same tensions exist at almost every club up and down the country – but does it represent a players revolt and Moyes’ possible sacking?

I don’t for a minute underestimate what would happen if/when Moyes does lose the players, as his sacking would be inevitable – I’m just not convinced that this article is providing us with the smoking gun that he has lost the dressing room.

The article even suggests that the route of some of the unrest comes from players who will be heading for the exit at the end of this season (they ran a story the other week about Federico Macheda criticising Moyes), and the other main criticisms come from Paul Scholes, a man who is apparently still waiting to be invited onto the coaching staff.

David Moyes may well be the next manager out, but I don’t think this article is signalling this.

As punters we can make money from stories in the media about managers, I have traded no end of next manager markets on Betfair and made money off the back of newspaper headlines, but sometimes we have to read the stories thoroughly to see what isn’t there, as I believe is the case here.

The odds on Moyes haven’t really shifted, if anything they have lengthened as Coral now have a ‘Next Manager To Leave His Post’ market live, and they have Moyes out as an 8/1 shot, improving yesterday’s best price of 13/2 with Skybet.

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Tim Sherwood Sack Race Odds

Tottenham’s season continued to implode last night with a poor 3-1 reversal at home to Benfica in the 1st leg of the Europa League, and unless there is something miraculous in the 2nd leg, their chances of progression in that cup now look long gone.

On top of the result and in particular the manor of the defeat, we also seen – despite some majorly stupid provocation from his opposite number, Jorge Jesus, in the Benfica dugout – Tim Sherwood not exactly cover himself in glory with his own performance on the touchline.

Last week we had Sherwood’s (truthful) outburst against his own players following the Chelsea defeat, closely followed by his quotes about the deafening silence from the board room, with regard to stories about him being replaced as Tottenham manager.

There is no disgrace in losing to teams like Chelsea and Benfica, but it’s the manner of the defeats that will be doing the damage to Sherwwod, as Spurs have looked totally shambolic for periods in both matches. All in all, I think it’s fair to say that it hasn’t been the best week of Sherwood’s managerial career.

This is now being reflected in the Next Manager To Leave His Post betting, as Sherwood’s odds have been gradually shortening over the last week to ten days.

Sherwood now finds himself at a variety of odds to be the next manager out, for example he is as short as 3/1 with BetVictor (2nd favourite behind Pepe Mel), and all the way out at 12/1 (4th favourite) with Stan James.

I got 20/1 on him last Monday with Paddy Power, who are currently 9/2 (this has also enabled me to lay him off on Betfair for profit).

As much as I think that Sherwood is heading towards the exit door at Spurs, will he get there before Pepe Mel at West Brom?

I have seen quotes from Mel this morning saying he is not sure what the fate of his job will be if West Brom fail to beat Swansea on Saturday. Although I think it was more Mel speculating on himself in response to a question, rather than his reacting to a direct threat about his job.

Mel is currently a best price of 4/7 with Paddy Power to be next manager out.

Tim Sherwood probably wouldn’t be sacked before the Europa League 2nd leg, and in all likelihood will probably keep the seat warm until the end of the season.

That is unless things get that bad for Spurs that his job becomes untenable. This isn’t out of the equation on current form, and they have got Arsenal on Sunday.

If Spurs put in another disastrous performance and get a good hiding from their arch enemies, then who knows what Sherwood’s fate could be on Monday?

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Chris Hughton – The New Favourite In The Sack Race

What a difference a week makes, one win for West Ham and Big Sam, followed by a couple of disappointing results for Norwich, and all of a sudden Chris Hughton is now the odds on favourite to be the next Premier League manager to be shown the door.

Hughton’s latest set back – a 3-0 defeat at Fulham in the FA Cup – has seen him backed in to 4/5 favourite with BetVictor (£25.00 Free Bet For New Customers) to be the Next Premier League Manager To Leave His Post.

Big Sam is now out to 2nd favourite, and is 5/2, a massive drift from the 1/5 that he was generally available at before Saturday’s victory over Cardiff.

Both teams have tricky home fixtures coming up this weekend, with Norwich welcoming Hull City (for time being) to Carrow Road, and West Ham hosting an in-form Newcastle side.

On the surface of things, Chris Hughton looks to have the most to lose, as surely most people connected with Norwich will have this down as a must win fixture. No disrespect to Hull, but if you want to stay in the Premier League these are the sort of matches you need to win.

West Ham on the other hand probably wouldn’t be expected to beat Newcastle on current form, although at the start of the season, I would imagine that the Hammers’ fans and owners alike would probably have been expecting to be competing with teams like Newcastle by now.

It is widely regarded that if you are in West Ham’s position, you would want Sam Allardyce to come in and sort it out. I know that most West Ham fans don’t see it like that, but as a neutral looking on at the highlights of the Cardiff match last Saturday, it looked fairly obvious to me that the players are still right behind Allardyce.

West Ham fans should probably also ask themselves, what would their rivals rather they do? And I bet the answer is that most of them would like to see Big Sam sacked.

By all means call for his head at the end of the season, but for now, just get behind him.

The 3rd manager in the betting is Paul Lambert at 7/1. I can’t see this happening personally. Lambert was brought in to bring the wage bill down, bring through some youth, and put the club back on a path to some sort of financial stability…. and that’s really what he seems to be doing.

He has just brought in Grant Holt on loan until the end of the season, another cheap signing, but one who will probably get enough goals to keep Villa up and continue with the clubs restructuring programme.

Famous last words here, but Lambert is a no goer for me.

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Next Manager Markets – Billy Davies Backed For West Ham Job

With the general consensus of opinion being that today’s match against Cardiff could be Sam Allardyce’s last in charge, football gambling punters have got stuck into backing Billy Davies to become the next West Ham manager.

Since last Thursday evening, punters have sent Davies’ odds tumbling from 33/1, down to 3/1 with BetVictor (Harry Redknapp remains the favourite, at 7/4).

I’m not certain this is based on any specific intelligence, or just a coincidental hunch with people putting two and two together after Forest’s 5-0 win over West Ham last weekend, and coming up with 5 – or 11 in the case of West Ham’s leaky defence over the last week.

While backing at 33/1 isn’t a major risk, I certainly wouldn’t be backing at the 3/1 currently available on Davies. It is surely a risky strategy to be betting on the outcome of the next manager of a football club at such short odds, when there is uncertainty as to when the current incumbent will be leaving.

This isn’t like the Chelsea situation last season, when everyone knew Rafa Benitez would be leaving, so it was possible to bet on the outcome of a new manager.

The West Ham situation is totally different, David Gold and David Sullivan could back Allardyce until the end of the season – and possibly beyond, if he keeps them up with plenty to spare. Where might Billy Davies be then?

The two David’s also don’t have a track record of been trigger happy either, so beware if entering this market.

Despite this, Big Sam is still pretty much unbackable to be to the next manager sacked. He is currently a best price of 2/5 with Coral.

Another manager feeling the heat right now is David Moyes. At the moment, his position at Manchester United looks relatively safe (he is 16/1 to be the next Premier League manager out the door), and I don’t believe another defeat to Swansea City today would see the club’s hierarchy reach for the panic button.

What I think will influence them though, is the share price on the New York Stock Exchange. This is what I believe will ultimately condemn Moyes.

If the share price continues to nose dive under Moyes, then that’s when I believe the Glazer’s will act – no matter what Alex Ferguson and Bobby Charlton, etc, say. After all, we all know what the Glazer’s are interested in.

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Manchester United – 1/2 To Win Nothing This Season

With David Moyes coming under more pressure after Tuesday night’s Capital One Cup defeat to Sunderland, BetVictor are running a book on what Manchester United might, or might not win this season – and winning nothing is 1/2 favourite.

United’s best (and only, some might say) chance of silverware is in the Capital One Cup, but even if they do overcome Sunderland in the 2nd leg, their chances are fairly slim as they will be facing Manchester City in the final, who last night all but assured their place at Wembley with victory over West Ham (to put it politely).

Imagine they do get to Wembley, and City cut them to shreds again!! Ironically, it might not be the worst outcome for Moyes, if they don’t overcome the 2-1 deficit to Sunderland in the 2nd leg.

If you are an optimistic United fan, BetVictor will give you 1000/1 on them winning the Premier League, the Champions League and the Capital One Cup. A Capital One Cup and Champions League double is 40/1, while the Capital One and Premier League pays out at 66/1.

A more realistic bet might be, To Win Any Cup, at 6/4. Or in the ‘Sack Race,’ BetVictor have Moyes as 4th favourite, at 16/1.

What will Manchester United win? Odds from BetVictor (£25.00 Free Bet available to new customers).

No Trophy – 1/2
To Win Any Trophy – 6/4
League Cup & Champions League – 40/1
League Cup & Premier League – 66/1
Premier League & Champions League – 300/1
League Cup, Premier League & Champions League – 1000/1

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Next Cardiff Manager Betting

After the inevitable sacking of Malky Mackay earlier today, the latest Next Manager Betting Market emerged with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer emerging as an immediate ‘odds on’ favourite to get the job in the Cardiff hot seat.

Just what justified Solskjaer’s short odds, I don’t know. He traded as low as 1.60 on Betfair shortly after the market went live. I got matched laying him at 1.70, but luckily I was by my computer when I heard of Mackay’s sacking, and was quick off the mark (for once in my life).

As I write, Solskjaer is trading at over 2/1 on Betfair, I still think that is short! While with certain online bookmakers, he is as short as 2/5 and 1/2 – with a best price of Even money.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may well get the job, but I certainly wouldn’t be backing him at low odds, especially at odds on. Solskjaer has turned down, and distanced himself, from far better jobs than the Cardiff City one, so I find it hard to understand how anybody can justify backing him at such short prices.

Thinking rationally, if it was me picking the manager, I would want someone who has experience of keeping teams in the Premier League, a street fighter who has been there and done it – not an inexperienced, or up and coming manager……. but this is Cardiff, where rational thinking seems to be an alien concept.

Which is all the more reason why extreme caution should surely be exercised when betting on this market. I personally don’t see Solskjaer taking this job, but I’ve still covered my lay on Betfair just in case he does.

After all, this is Cardiff, so anything can happen.

And yes, Vincent Tan is in the betting on Betfair, and he had over £100 wagered on him at odds in and around the 40/1 to 50/1 mark.

Meanwhile, Malky Mackay has been installed as favourite to be the next West Brom manager. He is currently a best price of 13/8 with Betvictor.

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Next Tottenham Manager Betting

Frank de Boer was the big mover on Thursday in the betting to become the next Spurs manager. De Boer is now in to Even money with some layers, 13/8 is available at Skybet, and 5/2 with Coral.

The rumour doing the rounds on social media (not sure how reliable the source was) on Wednesday evening was that de Boer was happy to come, and even Dennis Bergkamp was prepared to join him at White Hart Lane.

Of some of the other runners and riders, I know that Tim Sherwood’s chances of getting the job shouldn’t be influenced that much by the West Ham result, but the 2-1 defeat did see his odds drift, as he was favourite pre kick off. I suppose the only logic that can be taken from that, is that it’s not a result that demands the job for Sherwood.

If Sherwood had gone on a four or five match winning run, demolishing opponents along the way, then Daniel Levy would surely of had to let him have a proper go at the job.

Anyway, the league is where Spurs earn their bread and butter, so all Sherwood can do is try and win as many of the games as he can while he’s in charge. Assuming no one is appointed before, Spurs visit Southampton on Sunday, and any win at St Mary’s has to be regarded as a decent result.

The name of Glenn Hoddle is also there or thereabouts in the betting, with the former England manager third favourite at 8/1.

Hoddle seems to be the man that all the ex-players and pundits want to see get the job. Conversely, others seem to be pointing out that Hoddle hasn’t been involved in management for a few years now, and I even heard some Spurs fans on the radio complaining about the style of football Spurs were playing when Hoddle last left the Lane.

I’ve a theory of my own when it comes to Glenn Hoddle. I think he may be okay with this job, as I believe he is the sort of manager who works better, with better players. The quality of player currently at Spurs is far removed from what Hoddle had to work with the last time he was there.

At the moment the market looks a bit to unpredictable, for me it’s simply a case of trading the price movements on Betfair for as long as it lasts.

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Oh no, the return of next manager markets on Betfair

After a bad experience in ‘Next Manager’ markets on Betfair when ‘Arry’ Redknapp went back to Pompey, I decided to give up trading them as I just didn’t trust getting involved in markets that were obviously influenced by people who knew more than I did.

That was until I spotted what I believed to be a great chance to ‘lay’ Terry Connor in the next Wolves manager market a few weeks back. I played it safe with regard to laying Connor and ended up with something like £1.27 green on him, with the field at around £80 green and 5 or 6 of the other candidates with well over £100 green.

To be honest, I actually enjoyed it, I couldn’t believe it, but I did.

So last week when the West Brom, Aston Villa and Liverpool next manager markets opened up I was actually quite excited.

A week on and I have had enough of the bloody things, they require non stop attention, they are unpredictable and are damn right stressful. You just can’t take your eye of them for 5 minutes in case you miss a massive market swing – which I have done loads of times already.

Take the Liverpool market for example, Roberto Martinez was favourite to start with, but I spotted late on Thursday night that one or two newspapers had started to run a story about Liverpool asking Swansea for permission to speak to Brendan Rodgers.

So with this in mind I placed a bet on Rodgers and went to bed in the belief that his odds would come tumbling down in the morning when all the early risers got up and seen the reports.

Wrong! I got up and his odds hadn’t budged, barely a tick difference.

So I thought that he obviously won’t drift, so I’ll go to work and leave my bets matched and won’t bother laying out again for a scratch trade. What happens? Within an hour of me leaving I hear on the radio that Rodgers has declared he doesn’t even want to meet Liverpool to discuss the job, let alone take it if offered.

So after this I’m already chasing my tail in the Liverpool market.

I then backed Rafa Benitez on the back of reports Liverpool want to speak to him, and he drifts, so I lay him for a slight red. I then back AVB on the back of reports Liverpool want to speak to him, and for about 36 hours his odds barely move, so I lay some of my trade back.

Thankfully I left some green on AVB and he has now gone favourite, but if his odds had moved 24 hours earlier I would have been able to green the field. As it stands he would have to be trading at about 1.2 for me to be able to green the field now.

I have at times over the weekend thought about throwing my shovel away, but I just can’t leave the market alone, it’s like an addiction. At the moment I am green on most of the front runners with the exception of Roberto Martinez and Rafa Benitez.

I am not overly worried as it stands, but a flier coming out of the field from nowhere could land me in trouble as I haven’t been able to green up the field so far.

In the Villa market I am scratch the field with a large green on a couple of outsiders and small green on two of the favourites. While in the West Brom market I am red on Chris Hughton, green the field and I have a couple of quid on a couple of candidates I have a hunch for.

But please, hurry up and finish and put me out of my misery.

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