Alan Pardew Sack Odds

After another disappointing result for Newcastle away at Stoke tonight (they lost 1-0), and on the back of Mike Ashley’s comments over the weekend, it’s no surprise to see Alan Pardew is a heavy odds on favourite to be the next manager to leave his position.

Paddy Power (who are offering a £50.00 free bet for new customers) make Pardew 1/4 to be the next manager out in their Sack Race market, West Brom’s Alan Irvine is second favourite at 15/2.

Betfair‘s betting exchange also sees Alan Pardew trading at 1.25 to win the sack race.

Tim Sherwood Sack Race Odds

Tottenham’s season continued to implode last night with a poor 3-1 reversal at home to Benfica in the 1st leg of the Europa League, and unless there is something miraculous in the 2nd leg, their chances of progression in that cup now look long gone.

On top of the result and in particular the manor of the defeat, we also seen – despite some majorly stupid provocation from his opposite number, Jorge Jesus, in the Benfica dugout – Tim Sherwood not exactly cover himself in glory with his own performance on the touchline.

Last week we had Sherwood’s (truthful) outburst against his own players following the Chelsea defeat, closely followed by his quotes about the deafening silence from the board room, with regard to stories about him being replaced as Tottenham manager.

There is no disgrace in losing to teams like Chelsea and Benfica, but it’s the manner of the defeats that will be doing the damage to Sherwwod, as Spurs have looked totally shambolic for periods in both matches. All in all, I think it’s fair to say that it hasn’t been the best week of Sherwood’s managerial career.

This is now being reflected in the Next Manager To Leave His Post betting, as Sherwood’s odds have been gradually shortening over the last week to ten days.

Sherwood now finds himself at a variety of odds to be the next manager out, for example he is as short as 3/1 with BetVictor (2nd favourite behind Pepe Mel), and all the way out at 12/1 (4th favourite) with Stan James.

I got 20/1 on him last Monday with Paddy Power, who are currently 9/2 (this has also enabled me to lay him off on Betfair for profit).

As much as I think that Sherwood is heading towards the exit door at Spurs, will he get there before Pepe Mel at West Brom?

I have seen quotes from Mel this morning saying he is not sure what the fate of his job will be if West Brom fail to beat Swansea on Saturday. Although I think it was more Mel speculating on himself in response to a question, rather than his reacting to a direct threat about his job.

Mel is currently a best price of 4/7 with Paddy Power to be next manager out.

Tim Sherwood probably wouldn’t be sacked before the Europa League 2nd leg, and in all likelihood will probably keep the seat warm until the end of the season.

That is unless things get that bad for Spurs that his job becomes untenable. This isn’t out of the equation on current form, and they have got Arsenal on Sunday.

If Spurs put in another disastrous performance and get a good hiding from their arch enemies, then who knows what Sherwood’s fate could be on Monday?

Next Swansea Manager Betting

Last night I was gearing up to write a post about the next manager to lose his job, when l heard that Swansea had sacked Michael Laudrup.

At first I was very surprised, but after reading some of the comments from Swansea chairman Huw Jenkins, I get the feeling they weren’t all pulling in the same direction.

Anyway, onto the betting, and there is not much to report in this market at the moment. Swansea have said that Gary Monk will be put in charge for the foreseeable future, and as a result betting markets seem to be fairly thin on the ground for the next permanent Swansea manager.

Only William Hill (£25.00 Free Bet for new customers) are offering a market at the moment, and that is who will be in charge on the first day of next season. At the moment they have Gary Monk at 2/7 favourite, and Graeme Jones (the presumed first choice) at 7/1, which might not be the worst bet in the world.

Huw Jenkins is a long term fan of Jones and has tried to persuade him to take the job three times in the past.

Asking Gary Monk to take over for the foreseeable future buys Huw Jenkins some extra time to try and persuade Jones to take the job, and also allows him to wait until the end of the season (if necessary).

Swansea are a stable club who don’t go in for huge upheaval and change for the sake of change though. Both Gary Monk and Graeme Jones know the club philosophy, and how Huw Jenkins want the club to be run. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be looking too far beyond those two.

They have just tried the experiment of a big name, so I doubt they will be in any big rush to try it again. The only way I can see neither of them getting the job is if Monk has a disaster, and gets them relegated, and Jones turns them down again.

Next Tottenham Manager Betting

Frank de Boer was the big mover on Thursday in the betting to become the next Spurs manager. De Boer is now in to Even money with some layers, 13/8 is available at Skybet, and 5/2 with Coral.

The rumour doing the rounds on social media (not sure how reliable the source was) on Wednesday evening was that de Boer was happy to come, and even Dennis Bergkamp was prepared to join him at White Hart Lane.

Of some of the other runners and riders, I know that Tim Sherwood’s chances of getting the job shouldn’t be influenced that much by the West Ham result, but the 2-1 defeat did see his odds drift, as he was favourite pre kick off. I suppose the only logic that can be taken from that, is that it’s not a result that demands the job for Sherwood.

If Sherwood had gone on a four or five match winning run, demolishing opponents along the way, then Daniel Levy would surely of had to let him have a proper go at the job.

Anyway, the league is where Spurs earn their bread and butter, so all Sherwood can do is try and win as many of the games as he can while he’s in charge. Assuming no one is appointed before, Spurs visit Southampton on Sunday, and any win at St Mary’s has to be regarded as a decent result.

The name of Glenn Hoddle is also there or thereabouts in the betting, with the former England manager third favourite at 8/1.

Hoddle seems to be the man that all the ex-players and pundits want to see get the job. Conversely, others seem to be pointing out that Hoddle hasn’t been involved in management for a few years now, and I even heard some Spurs fans on the radio complaining about the style of football Spurs were playing when Hoddle last left the Lane.

I’ve a theory of my own when it comes to Glenn Hoddle. I think he may be okay with this job, as I believe he is the sort of manager who works better, with better players. The quality of player currently at Spurs is far removed from what Hoddle had to work with the last time he was there.

At the moment the market looks a bit to unpredictable, for me it’s simply a case of trading the price movements on Betfair for as long as it lasts.

Football Trading Update

My main focus from football trading these days is to try and make money from matched betting and my own variation of pre match trading, but along with these trading methods, I do allow myself to trade some other football markets.

One such market I am currently trading is the ‘Next Manchester United Manager’ market on Betfair, which I’ve allowed myself £100.00 to trade with.

It all started off in a bit of a shabby manner, but I am now finding it a good learning curve for trading long term markets, and for my football trading in general.

I could green it up at the moment, but I am going to leave it, as it could be years yet before this issue is settled as Alex Ferguson is showing no sign of letting up.

This gives me plenty of time to green up my positions more profitably as different candidates should come and go into favouritism over the course of time. This will allow me to bide my time and wait for the right prices to back runners I am red on, or I can continue to lay outsiders if their odds shorten, which will increase the decent sized green I currently have on the field.

At the moment Pep Guardiola, David Moyes and Jose Mourinho are the three main candidates. I’m £100.00 red on Pep and Eric Cantona, £80.00 red on Mourinho and £40.00 red on Moyes. I also have a medium red on Martin O’Neill and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, with the majority of the rest of the field showing £200.00 green.

I’m not worried about my position at the moment. It is possible that both Pep and Mourinho could get tempted by the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City or PSG. Pep’s representatives were spotted at the San Siro watching AC Milan three or four weeks back, so he could be in the running there also.

It is also conceivable that any candidates could take a job like Chelsea and be hired and fired before Ferguson quits United, meaning they could still get the gig at Old Trafford. The point is though, if they do take another job in the meantime, their odds will tumble.

Trading these markets isn’t always about what you think will happen, it’s how you think the market will react to a bit of speculation, or a newspaper article, etc.

There is also the prospect of being able to green up if a steamer comes in from nowhere, always a strong possibility in these markets. A manager’s stock can also rise and fall quite quickly these days, I remember looking at this market a couple of years back to see Martin O’Neill as favourite and trading below 2/1, he is now available at over 20/1, and is still worth a lay at that price in my view.

Candidates come and go as O’Neill did, that’s why I’m not worried about having a large red on Guardiola and Cantona at the moment.

One red I am trying to reduce though, is the one I have on David Moyes. I think if Ferguson chooses his replacement it could well be Moyes. I’ve also been of the view for a while now that Moyes with Phil Neville as part of his back room staff (or maybe even his assistant) could be a real runner in a couple of years time. And if Ferguson does fancy Moyes for the role, he may also decide to go if/when he thinks Moyes is primed for the job.

The other night I noticed Gary Neville got backed into 10/1, I put a lay of 11/1 up but didn’t get matched. He is already drifting, which just goes to show that if you’re in the right place at the right time, there is some money to be made. Another one who comes in every now and again before drifting is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, I’ve now just put lays up on both of them and left them, hopefully next time I check back they will be matched.

Checking back regularly can be a bit of a problem though as keeping focused on these sorts of markets can prove difficult, as it is just so easy to forget about them. For these reasons I will never leave a lay up that could cause me a serious problem if I forget about it.

All my other football trading is going well at the moment. Pre match trading hasn’t had a losing week yet, I’m stepping up my matched betting by finding more free bets, and I’m just starting a trading experiment using the Assured Soccer Profits system.

Here’s hoping for more successful football trading!

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The Dangers of ‘Next Manager’ Betting Markets

The saga that was Alex McLeish going to Aston Villa this summer only served to prove my theory that getting involved in ‘Next Manager’ betting markets is a very, very dangerous game that should be treated with extreme caution.

When you look at the facts, some of these markets are so dodgy that unless you are just investing a couple of silly quid at massive odds (like the 33/1 McLeish was to join Villa), you’re better off just completely giving them a wide berth.

Who would have predicted McLeish going to Villa? I certainly wouldn’t, I was actually stupidly laying him on Betfair (going against my own advice), but due to previous bitter experiences, only for a couple of quid – and remarkably, I actually came out with a small win (obviously after backing him on one of the occasions he drifted).

But why was McLeish available at a short enough price to lay on Betfair on the Friday afternoon, two days before he quit Birmingham? If someone told you then that McLeish was going from Birmingham to Villa you would have laughed wouldn’t you? Absolutely no chance, so why was he getting backed then?

When the bookies first put a ‘Next Manager’ market up, I would imagine the first book is just based on speculation. When the money starts to come in, is when we really start to see the market develope.

Alex McLeish didn’t just end up as one of the favourites on that Friday afternoon for no reason, money would have been the factor that forced his odds down. But why would any sane person be backing McLeish?

Well the answer is because someone, somewhere, knew something that we didn’t, and that’s where the money was coming from. In these markets we are playing with fire because other people involved know things that we don’t. In short, it’s like playing Poker with someone who knows your hand.

If you where playing Poker and you knew other people knew your hand, you wouldn’t play, would you? So why get involved in these ‘Next Manager’ markets?

I’ll give you another example, my bitter experience. Harry Redknapp’s return to Portsmouth from Southampton.

According to Sky Sports News and various other media outlets Neil Warnock was apparently the big favourite to get the Pompey job, he was to travel down to Portsmoth from Sheffield that night for talks and was set to be announced Portsmouth manager the next morning.

When I checked the odds on Betfair that night, Redknapp was odds on (about 1.70) and Warnock odds against (about 2.4), how the hell was this the case? Being a bit niaive (ok, extremely naive) at the time, I thought this is money for old rope and stupidly layed Redknapp.

What soon became blatently obvious was that old adage that ‘if something seems too good to be true, it’s because it generally is,’ and so it proved!

Looking back, the fact that Redknapp was favourite that night should have triggered some alarm bells in my head, but it didn’t.

Certain people somewhere either knew that Harry Redknapp was interested, or that Milan Mandaric was prepared to have him back in the job, or that Neil Warnock wouldn’t take or be offered the job – or all of the above.

Like with McLeish, someone knew something we didn’t – otherwise why else would Harry Redknapp be odds on favourite on Betfair for a job that was apparently about to be offered to Neil Warnock? I can’t remember for definate, but I’d say by this stage of proceedings most bookies had stopped taking bets due to the uncertainty in the market – and they’re not stupid, they had the common sense to stop taking bets.

Sure enough the next morning it was reported on Sky Sports News that Neil Warnock was to remain as manager of Sheffield United, and then the odds on Redknapp tumbled even more.

Someone knew in advance that Neil Warnock wouldn’t get the Portsmouth job and that Harry Redknapp would get it, just like someone clearly knew on the Friday that Randy Lerner was interested in McLeish and that he was preparing to quit Birmingham City.

When you bet on a football match, unless it is rigged, you know you are pitching your views against the views of another, basically it’s a fair bet based purely on your opinion. When you bet in a ‘Next Manager’ market, you can’t be sure it’s a fair playing field you’re betting on. The two examples I have given above go some way to showing that.

It’s hard to enough to win money gambling or trading as it is. This is the first of many articles I am going to be writing reviewing my betting strategies, and to start with, I’m placing these markets right at the top of my list of bets to avoid.

Latest Manager Betting

The BBC apparently now understands that Martin Jol is set to become the next Fulham manager.

There is currently no bookmaker offering odds on this outcome, with Betfair the only place still with an active market where Jol is currently available to back at 1.20. The liquidity is very low though, which is usually a good sign that the outcome is still not totally set in stone and should be treated with caution.

In the next manager to leave his job market, VC Bet have made Newcastle’s Chris Hughton their 2/1 favourite, followed by the Italian trio of Roberto Mancini @ 5/1, with Roberto Martinez and Roberto Di Matteo both at 6/1.

Sunderland’s Steve Bruce is next in line at 7/1, with Avram Grant, Alex McLeish, Sam Allardyce and Mick McCarthy all at 8/1. Interestingly Ian Holloway is as long as 12/1 with Chandler, as when Paddy Power had their book up earlier in the weekend the Blackpool boss was one of their favourites, along with Mancini.

Manchester City boss, Mancini looks fairly vulnerable, as does Chris Hughton. Think Hughton will be gone by November if Newcastle don’t make a great start, with the ‘we had to act now to get a new man settled in before the transfer window’ excuse rolled out.

As for Mancini, who knows what Man City will do, he could be gone after 5 or 6 games if they don’t get off to a good start.

Following Mark Hughes treatment last season, I would imagine the owner won’t tolerate a slack start from the Italian after all the money he has spent. Also he didn’t have a brilliant end to last season and if my memory serves me right, he had a worse record than Hughes did, I’m sure all this won’t be lost on the owners!