Weekly account update – Nearly a disaster

At close of play on Sunday night (01/01/12), my account was showing £141.49, a weeks loss of £41.57. Considering I lost over £50.00 on the Manchester City game alone on Boxing Day, I’ll take that as a positive result.

Week EndBankTarget Amount (7%)
01/01/12 – £141.49 – £195.87
25/12/11 – £175.42 – £183.06
18/12/11 – £178.00 – £171.09
11/12/11 – £199.96 – £159.90
04/12/11 – £160.57 – £149.44
27/11/11 – £153.18 – £139.67
20/11/11 – £143.56 – £130.54
13/11/11 – £122.00

Basically on Boxing Day, I was visited by an old friend, greed. I was on Twitter and all the punters/traders, whatever you want to call them, were tweeting about filling their boots on Manchester City at West Brom, easy money, etc.

So by half time – when it was 0-0 – I was sitting there thinking, “I’m having some of this as well.”

So I piled into a lay of Under 1.5 goals. It was a cert that Man City would score at least one, and then I trade out for an easy profit. If the goals doesn’t come, I’ll lay the 0-0 late on as City are a definite to score.

How wrong was I, with the combination of laying Under 1.5, continually topping that lay up and then laying the Correct Score, I lost over £50, getting on for nearly a third of my total betting bank. Absolutely bloody ridiculous!

Anyway, I wasn’t happy to leave it there. Liverpool were still playing and had about 10-15 minutes left and they were 1-1 at home to Blackburn at the time. Bingo, I can win it all back here, after all, Blackburn are crap and won’t get anything at Anfield.

First I layed Under 3.5 goals in the hope of a quick goals for a cheap(er) trade, when that didn’t come, I again piled into a lay of the Correct Score. I didn’t keep figures and I dare not check my account, but I know I did another £25-£30.

Not content with that, I then backed Overs in Stoke V Aston Villa as I thought it represented better value than Unders. Any trader with half a brain knew that Unders was the bet, but because it was short, and I was in chasing mode I went in on Overs and lost another £25 on one of the worst 0-0’s in recent history.

I’d basically done over a hundred notes on 3 games in a day. Thankfully I did manage some wins on other games that day and I ended that night with about £100 in my account, around £75 down.

Where I am pleased is that I did regroup after that and abandoned any gambling and resorted to just trying to rebuild my account using the Assured Soccer Profits system. In the past I would probably have tried to win the losses back the next day – and probably bottomed out the whole account. So that is the one good positive point to come from this debacle.

Where I need to further improve is when I have a calamity bet. I should have kept calm after the Man City bet and just concentrated on rebuilding there and then, as opposed to chasing. I did have a major rush of blood, and there is no getting away from it.

If I had adopted the approach I took the following day – straight after the City bet – I would have saved myself about £50, and as a result, would have already been back in profit.

As I eluded to above, I concentrated on the Assured Soccer Profits system after Boxing Day. It demands discipline from me, so it’s worth using it for that reason alone. Thankfully it came good for me and won me £41.76, as shown in my last blog post about my week’s ASP trading. It’s thanks to this system that my account recovered to show £141.49.

Further to that, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that it is the only trading that is making me a profit at the moment. So for that reason, discipline pending again, I’m going to try and focus on just using this system for the foreseeable future and see where it gets me.

Good luck and a happy new year to all readers, and here’s to (hopefully) a successful year ahead trading.

Normal Service Resumed

For my one or two avid readers wondering where Wednesday night’s betting round up is, fear not, I haven’t forgotten.

A day late and a familiar story, another loss. I think I’m going to lie low this weekend and try and rethink my stratergy, or even create a statergy – as I have to admit to never really having one.

Anyway onto what happened. I lost £9.10 on Rangers V Hearts. First I did my 70 min laying another 2 goals bet, when it was obvious it wasn’t going to win I layed the correct score for a failed bail out, resulting in a large loss.

I also lost £2.00 on correct score bets in the Blackburn V Tottenham game.

I managed to win £1.20 on Bolton V Wolves, I backed over 2.5 goals at half time and ended up laying the correct score late on to successfully cover it.

In the Blackpool V West Ham game I backed 3-2 both ways, so at half time there wasn’t many scores left to cover. I had a couple of quid on 3-3, covered 3-1 and had to put a few quid on Any Unqoted.

The upshot was that I would have covered my Rangers loss with 3-2 or 3-3, while 3-1 was a win of £1.65 and Any Unquoted would have broke me even. Frustrating really, but at half time it seemed realistic to expect more goals.

All in all another major disappointment, ended the night with a loss of £8.25.

Another New Start

After the disasters of January, it was nice to get February off with a profit, albeit a small one. £4.50 to be exact.

I’m a bit annoyed really as I had to go out and didn’t get back home until all the 7.45 kick offs were about 70 minutes in. As there was a lot of goals involved in most of the games – and as most of betting techniques are based on goals – I think I may have made a few quid had I been home all night.

When I did finally get home I was immeadiately alerted to the fact that Arsenal were losing 1-0 at home to Everton, but by the time I got into my Betfair it was 1-1.

I then did my ‘lay under 3.5 goals technique.’ I layed it at 1.2 for £5 liability and within a couple of minutes the price was around 1.85 after Arsenal took the lead, left the bet to run for a couple more minutes before getting out for an all round green of £7.50.

Ended the night with a loss though, noticed AC Milan were drawing 0-0 at home with Lazio, so layed the correct score for a couple of fivers and ended up losing £3.

All-in-all a nights profit of £4.50, taking my account upto £26.02 (Betfair investment currently stands at £210.00, so still have a long way to go to get back near parity).

Real Disaster

Bit of a disaster of a day again. My account received an unexpected boost with the return of a massive £2 with my lay of a previous bet on Javier Hernandez to be PFA young player of the year finally getting matched.

I then got off to a bad start losing £8.34 on Wolves V Stoke. Layed the draw at 2/1 and had to get out for a loss when it went to evens. I also had a couple of quid on 1-1 and backed over 1.5 goals with about 20 minutes left. Covered the stake on my over 1.5 goals bet when it went 1-0 to Stoke and left it to run.

There was a long suspended towards the end of the match which turned out to be for a Wolves penalty. It would have covered my loss on the Match Betting and also left me with a nice profit had they scored it.

I then won a massive £1.63 on Notts County V Manchester City, could have been a bit more had I rounded off an over 2.5 goals bet after City equalised. Decided just to cover my outlay and hope for a winner for another tenner.

Won £7.88 on Inter Milan V Palermo, had a couple of quid on 3-2 to Inter after I noticed them 2-1 down with about 20 minutes left.

I then won £3.69 on Pacos Ferreira v Guimaraes – Over/Under 3.5 Goals in the Portuguese League Cup. And no, I don’t know anything about the teams. Seen it was 1-1 with 20 minutes left so I layed under 3.5 goals for £2 at 1/10. After about 5 minutes it went 2-1 so I backed under 3.5 for a nice all round green.

It’s an interesting bet that I’ve tried quite a bit lately. With around 20 minutes left in a game, the correct score is generally about evens, while 2 more goals is usually around 1.15 to lay. A quick goal can then see you have the chance to back the same bet for a nice all round green or a free bet at worst.

I then won £5.03 on Rangers V Motherwell using the same technique. Layed under 3.5 goals when the score was 1-1 at 1.22 for £21.00 (exposure of £4.62). I then backed it at 1.84 for a nice all round green. Before laying it again late on in case of a goal at the death.

I then won £4.61 laying the half time correct score in the Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao match. I also won £3.31 on laying the draw in the same match. Got out when it was 1-0 to Bilbao to play safe, they were the underdogs, but also they were playing against 10 men at the time so I did toy with the idea of letting it run.

I lost £6.90 on the Eintracht Frankfurt V Borussia Monchengladbach game, layed the draw and then backed it for a loss. I did the 2 goals trade at the end and clawed some of the losses back, the draw trade had cost £10.

Then came the real damage. When will I ever learn? Made the fatal mistake of not trading out of Osasuna V Real Madrid as I expected Madrid to get an equaliser and what with chasing losses, I ended up losing a massive £44.16 on them.

Did over 2.5 goals to trade and I never had got a chance to trade out. I then backed over 1.5 goals and left the bet to run as I was certain Madrid would equalise. I also layed 1-0 late on hoping to recoup all my bets and watched on in horror as a clueless looking Madrid never looked like scoring.

Wiped out everything I had made in one mad 30 minutes. I had to put another £10.00 (total outlay now stands at £210.00) in the account just to lay the correct score. Went all in on them again and it went all wrong again. Why do I always do it?

Started a bit of a fightback backing 2-1 in the Juventus v Udinese match. Dutched 2-1 and 2-2 as well, traded out for a win of £11.54. Also put the – at the time – final £2 in my account on over 1.5 goals and won £2.20.

Going to leave it tomorrow and start again on Tuesday. January has been an absolutely awful month and I can’t wait for it to end. Will probably put another £40 in to give me a decent betting bank and hope for a more successful month in February.

Ended the day on £21.52 (having put another £10 in account), started it on £31.03 – a days loss of 19.51.

It had to End

After two winning nights I knew it was asking too much for a third one. I wasn’t sure whether to have a go on Celtic, Rangers or Liverpool. In the end I decided to ditch the Scottish games and go for Liverpool.

The reason? Rangers cost me dear on Saturday and they have been struggling for goals since Kenny Miller left. I couldn’t take a chance on them drawing another blank. Celtic are another side who haven’t scored many lately and after watching how tight Hearts kept things against Rangers last weekend I decided to also give this one the ‘wide berth.’

I’ve also decided to try not to get involved with too many games at the same time, so I just took the plunge on Liverpool.

The result. Yes, a loss of £8.18 on dutching the correct score. I didn’t expect a goal glut, but I don’t like backing 1-0. So to start with I did Liverpool 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1. I also done 2-2 and later in running I got on 1-1 and 2-1 to Fulham (as Liverpool have been a bit dodgy to say the least) when the odds started to drift.

I ended the night on £29.04 (outlay now stands at £200) and am nearly back to where I started the week. I am not around on Saturday, am at Cheltenham Races, so I obvioulsy won’t be Betfairing that day.

When I’m back I am considering a stint of laying the draw, surely I can’t do any worse than I have been lately!!! Will have a think about my stratergy over the next couple of days.

Two Winning Nights

Two of the old guard gave my Betfair account another much needed boost tonight with both Manchester United and Arsenal coming through for me.

About 35 minutes into the Arsenal V Ipswich game, I had £5 on over 2.5 goals at evens. Then just before the hour mark I layed under 2.5 goals for £4 at 1.25 with exposure of just £1 (overall exposure of £6). After 2 quick goals I layed off for an all round green at around the 70 minute mark and won £3.89. I stood to win more if I let the bet run, but with the current bad run I’ve been on I have to make sure I cash in.

I also won £7.14 on the Blackpool V Manchester United game. Like Chelsea on Monday night, I dutched a United win with scores of 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 and Any Unquoted, along with 2-2 in case of a high scoring draw.

At half-time with Blackpool 2-0, I backed them to win 3-2 and covered 3-3 just in case. Took a chance it wouldn’t go 3-1 or 3-0 to Blackpool, You’ve got to be prepared to take a hit if a shock result like that comes up.

Two successive winning nights, quite a good run by my awful standards of late. I ended the night on £37.22, a profit of £11.03.

A win for Me and Chelsea

I fancied a Chelsea win tonight but unfortunately I missed the kick off so I only managed to get my bets on after Drogba’s opener. In the correct score market I dutched Chelsea 3-2, 3-1, 3-0 and Any Unquoted, I also had a cover bet on 2-2 just in case Bolton made a fist of things.

For a small outlay I managed a profit of £5.70, not a fortune, but a start. My bank now stands at £26.19.

Think I might stick with the dutching route for a while now, I used it a lot around a year back and did ok with it. It’s almost like going back to basics – something I badly need to do at the moment.

You might ask, if I did ok with it in the past, then why did I change? Well the answer is partly to experiment with other techniques and also because when you are backing games like Man Utd, Chelsea (in the past), Barca and Real at home, the correct scores are usually crap odds so I found myself more and more going onto the total goals markets.

One other word of note. John Terry refused to concede the title afterwards, but I think that is just positive talk for the sake of it. There is no way they will catch Manchester United.

Saturday’s Betting

After my disasterous football bets on Tuesday I ended the night on £8.58, but thankfully I had already put a bet on the cricket earlier in the week. I won £11.32 after greening out my lay of the draw in the New Zealand V Pakistan test match, about the first call I’ve got right in ages allowing me to start Saturday with a betting bank of £19.90.

Anyway that winning feeling didn’t last long. In running in the first game I had to top my account up by another £25.00 as I lost £21.00 on over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals in Hearts V Rangers, how the hell Rangers didn’t score in this match I’ll never know, it was ridiculous. An equaliser would have won me about £15.00.

I then done a further £2.99 on correct score in Wolves V Liverpool, felt like packing up there and then and maybe I should have.

I then had a bit of success with a win of £5.64 on over 2.5 goals in Bayern Munich V Kaiserslautern, along with another win of £5.94 on correct score in the same game.

Then I had a mixed bag in the Newcastle V Spurs game, losing £1.80 laying the half time score and winning £6.65 on over 1.5 goals with Spurs late equaliser.

I also lost £4.87 on correct score in Celtic V Aberdeen, the last of my 3pm games.

Then things took a turn for the worse again in the Villa V Man City match. I fancied Bent for the first goal and a City win, had intended to have a couple of quid on 1st goalscorer/correct score bet with one of the mainstream bookmakers but forgot.

Would have lost anyway, so one I got away with. But I didn’t get away with it in my correct score bets on Betfair, losing £11.98 on correct score. I had about £7.00 worth of bets to start with and started laying 1-0 Villa late on hoping for a City equaliser.

To top my mood off I then had a bet of £15.00 on any unquoted in the Barcelona game, layed off my liability at 1.33 when Barca went 3-0 up and left the bet to run. Stood to win a tenner if Barca could score their 4th in the last 30 minutes and as my luck is going at the moment, it stayed 3-0.

Ended the day on £20.49, taking into account a further £25.00 deposit and that equals a days loss of £24.41.

Just can’t win at the moment!

Another horrible night tonight. This time I recorded a loss of £17.68 backing over 2.5 goals and laying the correct score in the Rangers V Inverness match. Don’t really know where to go from here, everything I touch at the moment is ending in disaster.

Started the night with £26.26 in account, it is now down to just £8.58.

On a brighter note I layed the draw in the New Zealand V Pakistan test match at the start of Day 4, currently have a position of £16.39 green on both a New Zealand and Pakistan win, with no liability on the draw.

Not sure whether to spread the green out or just let it run and hope for a positive result. At the moment, I’m sure I’ll manage to take the wrong road.

Another Shocker

Another shocking day at the office, when I started blogging all my bets I thought it might make me gamble more responsibly and take a more long term approach. Apparently not though, it is just getting worse.

The day started ok when I won £4.75 on over 1.5 goals in the Juventus V Bari match, got even money after about 35 minutes.

I followed that up by losing £10.35 on over 1.5 goals and laying the correct score in the Spurs V Man Utd game, a match I had no intention of getting involved in. I suppose 0-0 probably tucked up quite a few today.

From United’s point of view, they came to Spurs and did a job. Fergie probably would have taken a point at the start, he definately would have done after Rafael got sent off again. He looks a prospect, but he is a still a bit rough around the edges to say the least.

Then things got really bad, I lost £22.04 on Real Madrid, I backed them in unquoted and then in over 2.5 goals. I could have limited my overall loses with a trade on under 2.5 goals when it went 1-1, but I felt a Madrid winner might come so I let the bet run. Big mistake.

I finally finished the night off with a late-in-the-day desperate lay of the correct score in the Lecce V AC Milan match, lost £4.25 this time.

I started the day on £33.15 and have now had to put another £25.00 in my account, ended the night on £26.26. I make that a nice day’s loss of £31.89.

My overall investment in Betfair now stands at £175.00 and my account is down to £26.26. Great stuff!!!