Such is the dominance of Manchester City this season, there’s not much left to bet on when it comes to outright Premier League winner betting. With this in mind, we switch our attentions to other betting markets, and the spread betting on City’s total points looks an interesting market.
In Premier League Spread Betting, leading spread betting firm Sporting Index, are currently predicting that City’s points total will be something between 99 and 101, with City currently available to Sell at 99.5, and Buy at 101.
City currently have 58 points from 20 matches, and with 18 matches left to go, City could get a further 54 points. So this means if City are to win all 18 remaining Premier League Matches, a further 54 points, they would have a total of 112 Premier League points.
So if we were to Sell City at 99.5, we would need them to drop 13 points from their remaining 18 matches to be in profit. While if we were to Buy City’s points at 101, the most we could win is 11 points (so for example, at £10.00 a point, we could win £110.00).
With City currently on 58 points, we would need 43 points to start profiting it we were to Buy at 101. So that equates to 14 wins, and a draw from the remaining 18 matches, to get the 43 points.
It’s hard to not see City getting the 43 points, but how many past it? If you think they can go the rest of the season unbeaten, then you might wish to Buy, but bear in mind the most you can win is 11 points.
In fairness, even if City were to blow up, they would probably still manage to get around 36 points (2 points a match on average) from the rest of the season. That would give them 94 points, 5.5 below the Sell price of 99.5.
The spread looks fair to me, it should be evening matched whichever side it falls on. It’s impossible to win more than 11 points Buying, and highly unlikely we would make more than 11 by Selling. So whichever side of the equation you think will win, the good thing is that you shouldn’t lose too many points, should you pick the wrong side of the spread.