Lay The Draw Strategy

Sunderland in action

Lay the draw is perhaps the most frequently used strategy when it comes to football trading. Its simplicity, along with the rather high winning percentages, make it one of the most popular ways to lay a bet. It’s a rather straightforward strategy that can be used even by newcomers to bet exchanges, as long as they follow a clearly set plan.

Nobody is sure who invented this strategy. It appeared some years ago in betting exchange website (mainly as lay the draw betfair) and immediately became massively popular. But what exactly is laying the draw and how can it be used? Does this strategy remain profitable in 2017 or is it no longer relevant? Have the bookies found a way to counter it or can you still earn some money?

What does lay the draw mean?

The procedure of laying a bet is often used among punters in betting exchanges, as they technically offer odds on a certain sporting events, similar to a bookmaker. On the “lay the draw” strategy the target is quite simply avoiding a draw. It is used almost exclusively in football, but apart from the lay the draw football strategy it can be technically expanded to every sport that offers the draw as a match result. As the draw has a general confirmation percentage marginally surpassing 30% a punter starts with a near 70% percentage of winning. If you pick matches fulfilling certain criteria carefully, this percentage can increase even further. That’s why there are so many punters who lay the draw for a living.

Picking the right matches to lay the draw

How is this achieved? The basic rule is to pick matches with clear favorites, where there are less possibilities for a draw. A strong team playing at home against a minor opponent won’t settle for a draw and will give everything they’ve got up to the last second. The draw odds might be higher, making your exposure to risk higher as well, but the percentage of a draw in some leagues stands below 25%, thus giving a theoretical 75% winning possibility.

An alternate category is when the draw is an undesirable result for both teams. Matches during the closing stages of a league, when both teams need every point they can get to achieve their goals, are highly recommended.

What should you avoid? Matches were opponents have little to no difference in strength or when you know a draw suits them both. In addition, laying the draw in matches with an away favorite, are far from profitable as stats indicate.

Lay the Draw example

Suppose you’d like to lay a draw at 3.30 odds with a €100 stake. This means that expect your “initial” bet, to have an “exposure” of another €230. If the draw result is confirmed, you have to pay €330 to the punter (or punters) who backed it at these odds.

Lay the draw betting

You can intervene during the match, if you think you should protect your stake. In case one of the teams scores, the draw odds will go up, especially if the favorite finds the net. This means you can now back the new odds that are higher than the pre match laying odds and secure a profit.

As the match goes on and the one goal lead remains, the odds for the draw will increase. In case another is scored from the same side, they usually reach double digit odds further increasing your “back the draw” profits.

If the match ends with a winner, you get your €100 and win the €100 that other players staked on the draw.

5 basic lay the draw strategies

There are five basic lay the draw strategies

  1. Laying the draw pre match. You just pick a match before it starts, put your money on laying the draw and wait for a winner at the final whistle.
  2. Laying the draw at halftime. It might look similar to the above, only this time you don’t lay pre-match, but pick a match that stands as a draw at half time. It’s safer, as your exposure (the money you must pay backers) is roughly half to that of a pre-match bet.
  3. Laying the score at halftime. An alternative strategy, where you don’t lay the draw result, but a draw score (0-0, 1-1, 2-2 etc.). The exposure is much higher, as correct scores have much higher odds, but the possibilities of winning are much higher as well. In a match that stands as a goalless draw at HT the odds of 0-0 for a correct score could drop to even 4.50 from over 10.00 before the match. This can prove to be quite the bargain as both teams have a whole half time to score a single goal.
  4. Laying a halftime draw. Instead of waiting for the halftime to place your wager, you lay a pre-match bet on the half time draw. This has a much lower exposure, as the draw odds for the halftime usually stand around 2.00.
  5. Lay the 0-0 for halftime correct score. It’s worth trying this when you’re sure that at least a goal will be scored in the first half. Usually the odds of a 0-0 correct score at HT are much smaller than the FT ones (often more than half).

How you should proceed

Laying the draw pre match

  • Cash out when the favorite scores. If you follow this immediately after the first goal of the match, you wipe out your chances of losing (you’ll only lose when a match ends as a goalless draw). In most cases you get around 30%-40% of the total profit you’d claim with the initial odds.
  • Back the draw when odds reach 2.00. As minutes pass and no team manages to break the deadlock, the odds for a draw will naturally drop. To avoid losing all your stake you should have a cut loss edge, a point where you’ve agreed you must cash out and accept loss. This edge is usually set at 2.00 odds for the draw, at around 65-70 min. for an average match.

Laying the score & draw at halftime

Obviously, if the ball finds the net and you’ve layed the score you instantly win your bet. The same pretty much applies for a draw when the favorite scores, as you can either cash out your bet or wait for the final whistle, if you think they won’t concede. But what happens if no added goals are scored when you’ve layed the score and the match draws to its close? In this case it’s best to let your bet run, as the odds usually reflect this liability. Additionally, there is always the chance that one of the teams will manage to grab a late win.

Lay a half time draw or correct half time score 0-0

This laying strategy is once again best used when a strong favorite is pitted against an underdog. However, we don’t advise it, unless you’ve found really valuable odds as there is a far larger liability of a half time ending goalless. It’s practically similar to the above, with the only difference being that it’s easier to cash out when a goal is coming from the match underdog.

Lay the draw trading

A more advanced strategy contains both laying and backing. You just lay the draw, but you back the draw correct scores, starting from 0-0 and going to 1-1 or 2-2. If you’re sure that at least a goal will be scored you can omit backing the 0-0 and claim more profit. In this case you only lose if a 3-3 or 4-4 draw appears with the total profit you can claim being around 10-20% of your stake.

Make £500 A Month with Profit Maximiser

It’s only about a year old, but Profit Maximiser members are starting to report massive profits using Mike Cruickshank’s risk free money making service. Multiple members of the Profit Maximiser Facebook group are now showing that they are making over £1000 a month.

There are some exceptions to this, as some Facebook members are reporting excessive totals, like the guy who made £26,000 in 4 months, with another guy reporting profits of £16,000 in a year, while another guy is reporting more modest profits of £4K in 6 months, all on the groups Facebook page.

Having used this service for a while, and having looked at all the offers involved, I don’t see any reason why £500 a month can’t be made easily. While if you put in the extra graft, £1000 a month could well be possible.

With Profit Maximiser there are two specific types of offers for you to cash in, and depending on how much spare time you have, will depend on how you approach these offers.

First, there are pre loaded sign up offers you are advised to cash in as soon as you join. These will get you your subscription fee back in a couple of weeks, and then will make you a good few hundred quid profit (you should clear 4 figures) to start with. There are simply loads of sign up offers, well over a hundred.

It should be fairly easy to make at least £10 an offer on these – you should make a lot more – so with over 100 offers available it explains itself how much money can be made here.

Second, you have the daily offers added to the Profit Maximiser calender, which is updated a couple of times a day. The offers on the Profit Maximiser calender are day specific, by that I mean they may be only available that day.

These could be offers on a football match that night, or they could be free spins from a casino available that day (just for 24 hours).

This is where there are different ways of approaching Profit Maximiser. You can either just concentrate on the sign up offers, or you can do the calender offers, or you can do both.

What you choose to do, should depend on how experienced you are with bookmakers. If you are new, just concentrate on the sign up offers, if you are more experienced and have some spare time, then maybe do the sign up offers and the daily calender offers.

Just by doing the sign up offers, you should be able to make £500 a month, and I believe you will make much more than £10 an offer (remember there are over 100 offers). It should also be possible to make about £100 a week doing the daily calender offers, and with some of them being things like free casino spins, you never know, you might get that really lucky big win.

This service isn’t gambling, it is using sign up offers and bookie cash back offers to make risk money. It is the only service I have ever used that 100% guarantees a profit, all the others I have seen suggest you should make money over a period of time, or gambling is involved, etc.

Using Profit Maximiser is different, you will make money – £500 a month should be fairly easily achievable, and it even comes with a 30 day money back guarantee, making it totally risk free and giving you absolutely no reason not to try it out.

Profits Using Pre Match Trading Tool

The Pre Match Trading tool has worked perfectly ahead of the England V Moldova match. I took a look at the Over/Under 3.5 goals market on Betfair last night, and immediately thought it looked too high. It was trading at around 2.08-2.10 on over 3.5 goals.

I then checked pre match trading, and the tool told me that the real price of over 3.5 goals should be 2.04, so I immediately put a back bet up at 2.10. The back bet got matched, and sure enough I managed to trade out this morning at 2.04. As I write, it is currently trading lower.

In the past I would have put a back bet up at 2.12, and a lay bet at 2.06. So I would have ended up out of pocket, as only my lay bet would have got matched, and the market is now trading well below the 2.06.

As I already stated, I thought the market looked high, but what I didn’t know was if I was correct in my judgement. And if I was correct, how high was it trading?

Having access to the pre match trading tool allowed me to know all these details, allowing me to put a larger gap in my back and lay bets (in the past I would have traded out for a one tick profit), and ensuring a nice profit well before kick-off.

More details about Prematchtrading can be found here…..

Last chance to get Pre Match Trading at Discount Rate

Today (Saturday 31st August) is the last chance to purchase Pre Match Trading at the season long price of £219.00. If you want to get this fantastic offer – until the end of May 2014 – you have to act fast, as it runs out tonight.

If you are comparing this one off price against paying for the service every two weeks, this offer amounts to a discount of over 33%.

This price will get you access to all the usual members privileges, including the email alerts, access to the chat room, Draw Inflation, and the Prematchtrading tool.

Every week I have used the service, ‘Ads’ (Adam Ersser) has been in the chat room on Saturday afternoon answering questions from members, and helping them better understand the system.

Every Saturday and Sunday of the Premier League season so far this season I have received the email alert advising me of the safe trades for that day.

A major plus point I have discovered about the emails, is that on the one occasion the original advice in the email changed (due to a significant price movement in a corresponding market), the guys emailed out an update immediately, advising of the change.

This email effectively summed up in a nutshell how the system works. A price movement in a (different) significant market alerted those in the know at prematchtrading that the advised bet needed to change, as movement in this particular market influences the way all the other markets behaves.

It is the fact that the guys have the decency to follow up their emails with changes in circumstances that I like, and shows that it isn’t just an ‘all-take’ service. The initial emails all point out the signs to watch out for when placing bets, so prematchtrading could argue their job is done.

The fact that they go that extra little distance says a lot too me.

For a last chance to get this discount price, please click here. After today this price will be gone, and it will be back to the standard charges.

A Must Watch Prematchtrading Video

If you are thinking of joining Prematchtrading, I would strongly recommend watching the below video first.

Chances are – if you are anything like me – you will get the system on Saturday, then go off and watch the videos, and then find you have missed the first days trading. And you will also have basically chucked the main day of a week’s subscription down the pan.

I found this video very helpful, although it doesn’t claim to be a start up video, it kind of seems like one.

It’s actually well worth watching as many of the available videos as you can before you purchase the system. Although the system isn’t hard to work, I found when looking at the some of the screens I didn’t totally understand exactly what some of the stats and figures were telling me. One watch of the above video (I actually learnt what I wasn’t sure about in the first 5 minutes) and I was off and running.

You may need to play around with the system a bit to learn it, but watching the videos will give you a bit of a head start. And if you still don’t totally get it after you have joined and watched the video, I have found that there is nearly always one of the systems operators in the chat room – at peak trading times – who can be asked.

Don’t forget the guys at Prematchtrading are offering a season long discount if you purchase before the end of August. If you wish to purchase the system for the whole of the football season (until the end of May), you can do so for £219.00. When you consider it costs £106.00 for 3 months, the season long offer looks a great deal.

Good Start Using Prematchtrading

Any regular readers of this website will know that I spent the whole of last season trading the Over/Under 2.5 goals market pre match, using my own method.

This season I have decided to give the subscription service, prematchtrading.com a go. I’ve joined it for a couple of reasons really. First, I’ve always been curious to see if it as good as it is supposed to be – and secondly, I wanted to see if there was anything I could learn to compliment my own trading.

As advised, I received my email on Saturday morning (there was another one on Sunday). It had advice about 4 premier league matches, all concerned certain scores in the correct score markets. One of the games the email advised was Liverpool V Stoke, it advised that 1-0 looks ok to back at 8.0, with the caveat, that if circumstances (certain markets) change, don’t trade. Circumstances didn’t change in the build up, and as the email said, 1-0 did get backed in allowing a trade.

All in all I followed the advised trades in three of the matches (there were 4 matches advised), and on all three occasions the market behaved in the way the email predicted.

The way the email system appears to work is that it advises you to trade a particular score, using fairly large stakes (I’d say you would need a minimum of £100.00) you trade a tick or two at a time, ie, you’d back 1-0 at 8.0, and lay at 7.6 or 7.8, and then maybe go back in again.

You would then have the option of spreading your green across all scores, or using it to trade in match, or just leaving it as a free bet. Personally, I would always green up across the board, picking out a correct score is never easy.

This is why I would need stakes of £100.00 and/or more. I would be greening up across the board, so to have any chance of making any money after subscription, I would need to be making at the very least £5.00 a match.

Using £100.00 stakes, a back at 8.0 and a lay at 7.8 would give me just over £2.40 green across all scores. So using stakes of around £250.00 would probably be the best option, as it would get the £5.00 done in one trade. And then if the option was there to go back in once more, I would be in the position of making a weeks subscription in one match.

The system costs £20.00 for 14 days (it is cheaper if you purchase a longer period of time), basically a maximum of £10.00 a week. As the example above shows, you could make that one week’s subscription money a match if you use stakes of £250.00, so it should pay for itself quite comfortably.

I would recommend getting if for a month (£39.00), and seeing how you get on with it. It may take a couple of weeks to feel comfortable using the methods, so a month would give you time to use it properly and see if it’s the system for you.

On Sunday I tried out the main reason I joined the service, the pre match trading (PMT) tool. I used it on the Barcelona V Levante match to trade the Over/Under 3.5 goals market. Under 3.5 goals was trading at around 2.50 – 2.52, the PMT tool was telling me it should be trading at 2.58. I matched a lay bet at 2.52, and sure enough about 5 minutes before kick off, Under 3.5 goals was trading at 2.56 – 2.58 (I got out at 2.56).

I also followed the chat room on Saturday afternoon, and that looks very informative. A chap called Ads, one of the systems owners, was in there giving out helpful advice most of Saturday afternoon. It’s good that you can actually chat to one of the owners and pick up first hand advice from him.

For me though, the PMT tool looks bloody good. It is especially helpful for my trading method as I do the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. The PMT tool (software) tells me where the price of the market should be, compared to where it is.

For example, if Over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.02 on Betfair, the tool tells me this, but the jewel in the crown is that it tells me what the price should be (based on all the collective markets on the match), so it may tell me that the current price is correct, or it may tell me that the price should be 2.06, so on that basis I would know to lay 2.02. It basically picks out any misalignments in the price, allowing me to take advantage of it.

So far for me, Prematchtrading.com looks value for money. The emails look good, they are easy to understand, and the advice seems accurate. There is a helpful chat room, and the PMT tool works out what the true odds should be on every big match across Europe. So far so good as far as I am concerned, I am very happy with my purchase.

For more information, or too purchase PMT, please click here…..

Discount Season Membership From Pre Match Trading

The guys over at Pre Match Trading have now finished making all their summer upgrades to their service, and along with this, they have now announced a special offer allowing you to purchase the system for a season at a special discount rate.

For a one off £219.00, you can now purchase Pre Match Trading (also known as Shirley) and all its tools (including Draw Inflation) and upgrades for the whole of the upcoming football season (access to the service would end on on 1st June 2014).

This special offer ends on 31st August, and is available now – so the sooner you join, the better the value for money you will get. This amounts to a massive reduction of over 40% in price (according to their website).

For the benefit of any previous subscribers, the chatroom is much more easy to navigate, and I’ve been told that the email service will recommence at the start of the Premier League season on 17th August.

For more information, or to open an account with Pre Match Trading, please follow this link…..

Below is a video highlighting the recent upgrades to the service…

Pre Match Trading – Week 43 Results

17 June Tahiti v Nigeria / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.80
17 June Tahiti v Nigeria / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £1.56
18 June Italy U21 v Spain U21 / Match Odds – Won £4.26
19 June Brazil v Mexico / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £1.04
20 June Nigeria v Uruguay / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.86
22 June Italy v Brazil / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.27
23 June Nigeria v Spain / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £2.62

A week’s online football trading profit of £12.33

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £288.07. My football betting bank now stands at £388.07, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

A slightly busier week that the previous one with plenty of Confederations Cup activity and the final of the Under 21 European Championships traded.

I slightly deviated from my usual Over/Under 2.5 goals trades to get involved in the U21 European Championships final as I could only see the Spain price in the 90 minute betting going one way.

It was trading at just under 1.8, and I couldn’t really see it drifting so I managed to trade it a couple of times, twice backing at 1.79, and twice laying at 1.77.

In fairness it didn’t come in as I expected it would, as I thought it might steam in 6 or 7 ticks, but it moved around enough to allow me to trade in and out a couple of times for a nice quick profit.

The rest of the trades were pretty much standard trades. I made a bit of a mess of both the Brazil trades, I should have picked up more than I did in their match against Italy, and I shouldn’t have lost in their match against Mexico.

In fact the Brazilians cost me throughout the whole bloody tournament.

Getting closer to that £400.00 barrier now….. something is bound to go wrong, arghhhhhh

Pre Match Trading – Week 42 Results

16 June Mexico v Italy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.42
16 June Spain v Uruguay / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.89

A week’s online football trading profit of £5.31

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £275.74. My football betting bank now stands at £375.74, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

I’m going to rattle through these results this week as I’m getting behind with them and there’s not much to report at this time of the year really.

Just a couple of Confederations Cup matches traded this week, and small profits on both trades.

I’m pushing up towards the £400 mark though, so it will be nice when I finally break that.

I’m not expecting to get near my weekly targets at this time of the year really, as there is little football to get involved in, and I’m also spending a lot of time trading Golf, Cricket, Rugby Union, etc.

Pre Match Trading – Week 41 Results

4 June Japan v Australia / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.00
5 June England U21 v Italy U21 / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.79
5 June Sao Paulo v Goias / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.49
7 June Croatia v Scotland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 43p
9 June Netherlands U21 v Russia U21 / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.06
9 June Brazil v France / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.84

A week’s online football trading profit of £9.61

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £270.43. My football betting bank now stands at £370.43, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

It was a slightly busier period this week with six matches traded, compared to the to matches traded last week.

I traded all the matches using my two ticks method, where I place my lay bet two ticks below trading price – and my back bet, two ticks above trading price.

This method of trading seems to be working well at the moment. Although I haven’t been hit by a price going downhill like a runaway train lately, which is always helpful.

I suppose without properly analysing a block of results it will be hard to know whether a good run of wins is down to an improvement in strategy, or down to no one off large losses (which I had a spate of, a few weeks back).

I expect a quiet week next week as I will probably be trading cricket, with the ICC Champions Trophy currently in progress, and some golf, with the US Open starting on Thursday.

The Confederations Cup also starts on Saturday, so that could hopefully lead to some good trading opportunities from the weekend and onwards.