Football Trading

Football trading or football betting? Is there a difference, and if yes, then what is the difference?

I believe there is a difference. I also believe that there are many different variations of football trading.

For example I trade using a pre match trading method of my own. I have previously, and am again going to be trading using the Assured Soccer Profits football trading system as well. I’ve also known of others (and have tried it at times myself) who have traded by laying the draw, or have traded the Over/Under 2.5 goals market in running, or Over/Under 1.5 or 3.5 goals.

The main difference between football trading and football betting in my view is with trading you have an exit point, a point that once you hit it, you cut your losses and walk away. Football traders may also take out insurance, or hedge their bets more. They won’t break their bank (or at least they shouldn’t).

While betting is just putting your money on a team or an outcome and hoping it wins. Speculative betting or backing an accumulator, etc.

Obviously you can still lose money trading, but it will be a pre determined amount that you won’t go beyond. Without wishing to contradict myself, I suppose you could have a disciplined trading strategy for betting on football online as well. Where you allow yourself a certain amount to bet on outcomes of certain criteria, ie, 5% of betting bank on Even money shots.

I suppose this could be classed as disciplined football betting, as opposed to mug punting (something else I unfortunately have qualifications in).

I used to trade football in a number of (indisciplined) different ways. Sometimes I would back Over 1.5 or 2.5 goals in a 0-0 game at a point where one goal would see a massive swing in the price. If the goal came along (which invariably it didn’t) I would trade out.

When the goal didn’t come I would take a hit, I’m not sure if there was any mileage in that method as I never really executed it in a disciplined manner, I never had the patience to wait for the right matches, and never kept any records.

I’ve also traded the AUQ score in games that involve sides like Manchester United, Barcelona or Real Madrid. In these instances I believe I probably picked the right matches to trade, but I probably didn’t wait until the right point of the match to get involved. Instead choosing to get involved way too early and with no pre designed entry point to the trade.

As I am writing this post about football trading it is becoming clear to me that you can bet or trade, but there are key components you must have. And those components are to have a plan, very good discipline and plenty of patience. Without these I think any would be trader is doomed to fail.

For my own part I am going to continue to trade online using my own methods. My own variation of pre match trading is showing good potential and I am making a small amount every week. I’ve never had a run of winning weeks that ran into double figures. This is a variation of football trading I am planning on sticking with.

Pre Match Trading – Week 10 Results

2nd November Brighton v Leeds / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost 48p
2nd November Porto v Maritimo / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 96p
3rd November Man Utd v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.75
3rd November Dortmund v Stuttgart / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.96
3rd November Swansea v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 35p
3rd November West Ham v Man City / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 66p
3rd November Real Madrid v Zaragoza / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.12
3rd November PSV v Heracles / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £2.42
3rd November Valencia v Atl Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 59p

A week’s football online trading profit of £6.49.

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £66.62. My betting bank now stands at £166.62, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use all my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

Week 10 was a fairly quiet week with a slightly less than acceptable percentage (less than 5%) profit. I do have a slight excuse for this. Obviously the main football trading days are Saturday and Sunday, and last week I wasn’t around all day Sunday so I had to do the majority of my pre match trading on Saturday.

The significant loss of the week was in the PSV V Heracles match. As Over 2.5 goals was so short to lay (around 1.29-1.31), I was able to lay £300.00 (with £90.00 liability) meaning a one tick move either way would result in a £3.00 swing, and of course it swung the wrong way.

It swung two or three ticks the wrong way and I was left looking at rather a large loss at one point. I didn’t attempt to trade my way of it the position, I chose the sit back and hope for the price to swing back in my favour, as a result of this I was only left with the Betfair ‘Cash Out’ option at kick off and that was giving me an equal (on both sides of the trade) red of £2.43. Never mind, I suppose these things will happen from time to time.

This is one problem that comes up again and again. When the prices swings a few ticks, do I trade out and begin the process again (trying to clear my red first), or do I sit back and hope for the price to swing back a couple of ticks?

I think that there is no definite answer to this. I believe that when I learn the markets better, experience will tell me when to stick or twist, and that will only come with time.

Of the other pre match trades, they were in the main fairly routine. Most of the wins were small as I decided in most cases to just play save and get in and out just the once and move onto the next game.

If anyone is interested in pre match trading and wants to try it out, you can open a betfair account here. Another money making method this websites uses is matched betting, this is where I open online bookmakers accounts and use the free bets in a way that guarantees me a profit.

Online Bookmakers

There are plenty of online bookmakers around these days and I believe it is worth opening accounts with as many of them as possible.

There are a number of reasons for this, one is for betting on football online. The bookies are falling over themselves to get our custom these days and as a result they are offering markets on a whole host of things.

These days with football betting you don’t need to be an expert in knowing who might beat who to win money. You can bet (and hopefully win money betting) on the amount of yellow cards or the amount of corners, etc.

There are loads of markets available, both pre match and also in-running (markets get added after a game kicks off depending on how the game is playing out). All of these different markets give us the opportunity to become experts (ok, more informed) in other markets.

This leads on to another reason for having lots of different online bookmaker accounts. If you do become an expert in one field of football betting (or betting in general for that matter) and keep winning with one particular bookmaker, the chances are you will get subtly asked to take your business elsewhere.

This could be done by restricting your account, the bookmaker would probably do this by limiting your bet sizes to something stupid that makes you not bother betting with them any more. So to prevent this from happening, it is worth spreading your online betting around as many different online bookmakers as possible.

Another reason is because some will simply offer better odds than others. Why not shop around for the best price online? We do it in other walks of life, so why not do it with our football betting or football trading?

Some – like Paddy Power – will offer cash backs incentives. Paddy Power regularly offer money back specials, such as certain losing bets get refunded if a game ends 0-0 or a player gets sent off, etc. There are quite a few who now do offers of this nature.

The free bets on offer are another reason for opening as many online bookmakers accounts as possible. I will go into the free bets in more detail in another post. In the meantime as you can see on the left hand side of this website there is a list of online bookmakers offering over £600.00 worth of free bets.

From these free bets, you should easily be able to make £275.00-£300.00, risk free money from matched betting or bonus bagging.

This is just a taster of why it’s worth having as many bookmakers accounts as possible – there is plenty more to come.

Pre Match Trading – Week 8 Results

Week 8 Results

17th October Poland v England / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.75
20th October Tottenham v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £1.39
20th October Liverpool v Reading / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.04
20th October Norwich v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 85p
20th October Palmeiras v Cruzeiro / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 15p
21th October QPR v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 80p
21st October Osasuna v Betis / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.92

Profit of £8.12.

Total Pre Match Trading Profits to date – £44.94. Betting bank now stands at £144.94, started off the experiment with £100.00 betting bank.

On the whole I would take that as a decent weeks pre match trading profits. But there was a couple of mitigating circumstances. First, the Poland V England. Trading this game was a fairly easy trade and in hindsight I could (and should) have made far more that I did. Second, I made a bit of a cock up on the Tottenham V Chelsea game.

In fact, the Tottenham game absolutely infuriated me. About 20 minutes from kick off, I was just over £2.50 green on both sides of the trade. I sat there and looked at the market in the knowledge that it was a bit spooked by the (just announced) absence of Gareth Bale.

This had resulted in Over 2.5 goals drifting out two or three ticks, so I thought that was probably as far as it would go and backed it – in the belief that the market had maybe over reacted to Bale’s absence, and would subsequently correct itself.

No, the market continued to drift, I sat there continuing to watch it in the belief it would soon turn back, and guess what? It didn’t. The match was about to kick off, so I traded out for a loss of £1.39.

I was at least happy with my discipline in trading out for a loss pre kick off. I said in last week’s round up that I needed to start to close my position pre match. This enables me to have true pre match trading records.

Back to the Spurs game, and at that moment I made my mind up there and then that from now on I am going to move on to the next match as soon as I manage to green up a trade. I’ve have since had a slight rethink about this though.

It did infuriate me though, hence my reaction to start to believe that once I was green I move on. I followed this procedure for the next few games I traded.

That was until my last trade of the weekend in the match between Osasuna and Betis on Sunday evening. I greened up and then watched the market for a while. It suddenly dawned on me that 1.99 on Unders and 2.02 on Overs was just continually getting matched.

All in all I went in 4 times over trading £100.00. There was less than a grand at a time on both markets and the money just kept turning over.

So looking back I believe it is just a judgement call about when to pull out of trade and finish with it.

In hindsight, maybe I should have left the Spurs game alone when the news came out about Gareth Bale not playing. But I imagine there will come a game some time soon in which I make a couple of extra quid on the back of a spooked market from some team news. It really is a hard one to call.

Football Online

Learning where and how to follow football online is almost paramount if you want to be a successful at football betting or football trading.

There is no end of useful football online resources at your disposal. For a start you can check stats from previous matches, you can get team news from all over the world, you can get opinions and views from people watching games you haven’t access to, you can even get live updates from people actually at games you might be betting on.

Certain online bookmakers these days streams matches live, I’d say it is probably worth having accounts with some online bookmakers or betting exchanges just to be able to watch live football.

Twitter is another useful online resource. Similar to forums, you can discuss bets with other football traders. You can pick up helpful snippets of information from seasoned football watchers as too how a team has been performing lately.

You can also pick up team news fairly quickly on Twitter. This can be especially useful if like me, you like to bet using the pre match trading method. With using pre match trading, getting the team news fast and early can enable you to make a nice profit from the massive price swings you can get depending on the make up of a team, or the system that a team is playing, or if a top scorer is out.

Checking match statistics on the numerous football stats websites out there is also helpful and strongly recommended. For example, you can find out which teams score more goals in what period of a match, first 20 minutes, 2nd half etc.

If you fancy having a bet in running on a match, online football resources can be handy if the match you are planning on betting on has no live TV pictures. Again using Twitter you can communicate with people who may be at the game, or someone who has a live stream to the match.

You can also pull up live stats to see how a game is developing. If a game is 0-0 and you are considering laying the draw, you could pull up some live stats to see if there has been a lot of attempts on goal, or corners, etc. Or if one side is dominating possession, or a team has a lot of players on yellow cards – meaning a potential red card is a strong possibility, so you wouldn’t back them to win.

Ok, so it isn’t an exact science, but what is in football betting, or betting of any sort for that matter? What I do believe though, is that using online football websites is a helpful tool that could save or earn you money in the long run. So therefore it is something worth learning about.

Pre Match Trading – Week 7 Results

Pre Match Trading Results

12th October Wales v Scotland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 61p

Overall Pre Match Trading Profits – £36.82

A very quiet week with the pre match trading due to the fact it was an international week. I did look at, and toy with the idea of trading some obscure matches during the week, but due to low liquidity and me not knowing a thing about them, I decided not to bother.

I suppose when I’m more confident at reading markets I may well dabble into the unknown games, but for the time being I think I’m going to stick with what I (think I) know.

The one game I did trade – Wales V Scotland – I made a bit of a mess of in the end, despite a moderate profit.

It all started off ok, I managed to get matched and greened up with my first bet for 61p on both sides of the trade almost immediately. I then went back into the market, but after I got my back of Under 2.5 goals matched the price started to drift out.

I thought it was a temporary drift and that the price would come in again meaning I could trade out, but it didn’t. And I ended up having to let the game run for about 90 seconds before I could scratch the second trade, leaving me with just my original green (61p) from my first pre match trade.

I was very annoyed with myself to be honest. I know that I’ve written this before, but letting matches kick off before I trade out is distorting my records really. My records are correct with regard to trading football, but not with regard to pre match trading (if I’m going to be pedantic).

Also, I can’t be doing this if I’m trading with five hundred pounds or a thousand pounds, etc. I’m really going to have to start to close my position out before kick off from now on, whether green or red.

Basically the problem was with the second trade, and along with this match, it’s been an issue I’ve had for some time now.

When the price drifted out on the second trade, I waited thinking it would come back in again. I’ve noticed in the past in these situations that sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn’t.

This is where the problem lies.

I believe I had two options when this happened. The first was to sit tight, wait and hope (expect) the price will come back in, that the market will realign itself (in other words, it’s a temporary blip).

Or the second option is to trade out there and then for a small loss and start the process again. In this situation I would be expecting the price to stay hovering around the mark I traded out at, and then start the process again from there, trying to lose my red.

The conundrum is, if I take the second option and trade out straight away, and then the price goes back to where I was originally trading it (option 1), I will be very annoyed, as I will have traded out for a loss when if I had waited I would be green.

I’m not sure which is the best way to go here, I suppose experience will tell in the long run. The only other option I can think off is – after securing the original green – to just move onto the next match as soon as I have greened up. Decisions!

Pre Match Trading – The way forward?

This time last year I put £100 in my Betfair account and the plan was to gradually build it up by around 10% a week with a very ambitious aim to trade/gamble my way up to around £5k. A year on and I’m back at square one having just stuck another £100 in my Betfair account.

It started so well 12 months ago, by the end of September I had doubled the account to over £200. Then it started to go wrong as by mid October I was down to around £50, and by the end of the month I had bottomed out.

I spent the rest of the football season topping the account up, I haven’t checked how much I deposited yet, but I’m sure it was a few hundred quid and I haven’t got that sort of money to throw away.

Knowing that I couldn’t continue like that, I laid off betting towards the end of the football season and started to have a think about where I was going wrong, and subsequently why I was going wrong?

It didn’t take me too long to work out that my random betting on any old game just for the sake of having a bet might be a good place to start to look for the problem – I know of it in my head as Roulette betting, as I may as well just put my money on Roulette as I know just as little about that, than I did most of these games I was betting on.

If a game was 0-0 after 45 mins and the SP for Over 2.5 goals was below Even money, I would have a bet on Over 1.5 goals as in my own deluded mind there was bound to be a goal. Another method was in a match that was drawing after about an hour, I would just the lay the draw without any reason other than there was bound to be a goal, the law of averages dictates that, doesn’t it? It did to me back then at considerable cost. There were numerous different stupid bets I would do just for the sake of it.

After working out part of the reason I had been going wrong, I spent the summer months thinking about a method I could employ that suited my style of gambling to move forward with. Do I start just laying the draw, or back outright wins, lay a team every weekend, or just use a staking method based on maths rather than football knowledge – therefore taking the emotion out of betting?

I went through numerous variations in my head before I came to a decision, and the method I have decided to go with is Pre Match Trading, with a long term plan to make a low percentage of betting bank profit every week and see how I get on.

I did some trials on Euro 2012 games over the summer and it went well. Moving forward I am planning to trade high liquidity matches, mainly TV games, and mainly concentrating on the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. I want to concentrate on 2.5 goals as there is obviously only two outcomes, and the Correct Score market can also give an indication as too which way this market might move.

With this in mind, the Correct Score market could also be traded, and I will also look at the outright win market, trading this market will be done more with a view to finding prices which look wrong and need correcting a couple of days before kick off.

With the Over/Under market I will just try and trade one tick at a time, ie, lay £100 at 1.84 and then after that gets matched, back at 1.85 for £100, and so on. Going in as many times as possible repeating the same process. That’s why high liquidity matches is needed, for this method static markets would be quite handy where the money just keeps turning over at the same price.

I plan to stick at this market and try to master it, learning a new trade if you like. It’s my aim to get to know this market like the back of my hand.

I will be prepared to achieve as little as 0.5% of betting bank profit a match with as minimal risk as possible. If I can do 1%-1.5% a match then all the better, if this can be achieved in 5 or 6 games a week then I will be more than happy as I should be able to make around 28%-33% profit on betting bank a month.

On top of this I also plan to do some matched betting, using free bets from online bookmakers. This will be a particular good method of helping me build up my betting bank over the first few weeks and is as risk free a trading method as there is. In short, I want to limit my risks as much as possible, after that I am hopeful that the profits will come.

I am already about 3 weeks into my Pre Match Trading and I have made a decent start with some smallish profits, I will blog the results over the next few days.

Best of luck to all for the new season.

Burley on the brink

If the reports doing the rounds today (and judging by the online bookmakers response) are to believed then it looks like George Burley will finally be put out of his misery later this week and sacked as manager of Scotland.

It would appear that the meeting isn’t about making a decision as to whether or not to sack him but as to what package to offer him to quit, apparently conversations between members of the SFA board took place on Sunday morning when it looks like the decision to get rid of Burley was made.

Either way the fact that Burley’s position is on the agenda for the second time in a matter of just over two months must make his job virtually untenable anyway.

There is an arguement – and I’ve heard it said by plenty of ex players on television today – that there is no one out there to replace Burley so whats the point in getting rid of him, a position I thought to be the right one at the end of the World Cup qualification campaign when his job last came up for discussion.

The problem is now that he appears to have little (or no) support from the board or the players and at least a new manager may come in and wipe the slate clean opening the door for some of Scotland’s discarded or retired players to come back into the fold, players a country like Scotland can’t afford to be without such is the small pool of players they have to choose from.

Much as I would be loathed to see the likes of Kris Boyd, Lee McCulloch, Barry Ferguson and Allan McGregor come back after the way they behaved towards Burley and Scotland the fact is they can’t afford to have players like that not in the squad.

I know Gordon Smith said that McGregor and Ferguson would never play for Scotland again but it would surley be up to the incoming manager to make that decision, although in Ferguson’s case surely too much damage has been done with his attack on the SFA on the eve of the Holland match.

For the sake of all – and I include George Burley in this who has been a good manger over the years and comes across as a decent bloke – maybe a parting of the ways is best all round.

Looney toon caper continues

The news Mike Ashley was going to sell the naming rights to St James’ Park made me shake my head and laugh when I first heard it, I could already hear all those Geordie fans shouting at their TV’s and radio’s at this latest apparent act of betrayal.

I then heard a disgruntled Newcastle fan on a radio station claiming that all the Geordie’s don’t shop at Sportsdirect.com as it is a down market shop not good enough for them, personally I found this remark small minded and stupid considering since Newcastle were relegated this shop has helped bankroll the club.

Here was a loyal Newcastle fan refusing to shop in the place that funds his club, the kind of loyal supporter that got Newcastle relegated by forcing the owner to stupidly sack Sam Allardyce and then last season employ a TV pundit with a rather large ego and – as Joey Barton pointed out – not a clue how to manage a football team, to try and keep them up. Who needs loyal fans like that?

When later in the day I heard that the Mecca of football – in the eyes of those small minded people too good to part with money in the shop currently bankrolling their club – was to be renamed sportsdirect@St James’ Park Stadium I couldn’t help but wonder was Mike Ashley deliberately trying to annoy the fans or was this just a practical business decision.

Not only has he pissed them off by daring to rename their beloved ground, he has then rubbed their noses in it by using his sportsdirect brand as the naming sponsor for the rest of the season.

Surely Newcastle fans should be happy to be incorperating a successful multi-million pound business into the name of their ground? The players wages have to be paid somehow, or would you rather the club to go into administration instead?

By the way, where is the money coming from to pay your hero Kevin Keegan off?

It’s time to wake up and live in the real World, you have a large wagebill, you have a large cash hole to fill since getting relegated, the money from Sky is no longer there, if selling the naming rights keeps the squad together and gets you promoted would it really be that bad?

This is a typical case of football fans wanting it both ways, they expect success but don’t want to know about the difficult decisions needing to be taken to fund it.

Slagging off Mike Ashley is not going to get you promoted or pay the wage bill, the man is funding the deficit created by your well planned relegation last season. Surely it’s time to get off the blokes back and work with him rather than against him in trying to get back in the Premier League?

After all if he pulls the plug where will you be? Remember all those loyal Geordie business men were not interested in buying their beloved club when it was up for sale.

Arsenal V Tottenham – Match Betting

Arsenal take on North London rivals Spurs today at Emirates Stadium live on Sky Sports 1 in the dinner time kick off (12.45).

The corresponding fixture ended 4-4 last season and came a matter of days after Redknapp took the job, it is the perfect opportunity to see just how far Spurs have come under Redknapp’s leadership as in all honesty Arsenal were by far the better side last year and should have beat Spurs convincingly.

In the above mentioned game Spurs were helped by an early wonder goal (although I would call it a goalkeeping error) by David Bentley who has hardly been seen since and hung in there and at the end took advantage of a calamitous final 10 minutes to claim an unlikely draw.

This year should be different, the squad is now mainly a Harry Redknapp one and is there to be judged on its performance. Robbie Keane certainly rates it as he has already stated that the Spurs bench is stronger than the Arsenal bench, a remark I would imagine has been taken out of context and remixed by journalists, never the less not a wise one and it would already have done a large amount of Wenger’s team talk for him.

It could be said though that the Spurs squad isn’t as strong as the Arsenal one is, Luka Modric is still out with a long term injury and Harry Redknapp hasn’t been able to replace him. In Arsenal’s case if their main ball player – Cesc Fabregas – was out they have youngsters Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshere waiting in the wings to step in.

The loss of Modric has and will continue to be felt by Tottenham and last weeks match with Stoke is a perfect example were they dominated proceedings but couldn’t find that bit of craft or guile to open Stoke and surely the floodgates up.

In today’s game David Bentley looks set to come back into replace the injured Aaron Lennon after Harry Redknapp stated he has impressed in training lately and looks to have got his head down. Jermain Defoe is still suspended so Peter Crouch will continue up front in his absence.

For Arsenal goalkeeper Vito Mannone is set to be replaced by Manuel Almunia who has now fully recovered from a chest infection, Theo Walcott, Denilson and Tomas Rosicky are still out injured but Samir Nasri is available again but more than likely will only figure on the bench.

Onto the football betting and online bookmakers have Arsenal at a best price of 4/7 with Totesport, Stan James and Ladbrokes.

Tottenham are 11/2 with Bet365 and the draw is 3/1 with Paddy Power (a £50 Paddy Power Free Bet is available to customers opening new accounts).

A bet I like is both teams to score at 3/5 with Betfair. There are free bets available that can be used on this match, matched betting or for betting on football online. All that you need to do is open new accounts with online bookmakers.