Football Betting Systems

Premier League Title Betting – Are Arsenal Value At 14/1

Chelsea’s stay at the top of the betting was fairly short lived as Manchester City reclaimed the tag as favourites after Saturday’s results.

By all accounts, Manchester City did well to win with 10 men at Hull, and it’s those sort of hard fought victories that are generally the difference come the end of the season. City are now favourites again at a best price of 6/4 with Paddy Power (who have a £50.00 Free Bet for new customers.

Chelsea on the other hand seemed to press the self destruct button at Villa Park. They needed a similar performance to that of City, and they came up short. Maybe Jose Morinho was right about his team not being good enough (this year) after all? Chelsea are now out to a best price of 2/1 with Coral.

Liverpool are third favourites, and by some distance. They are 10/3 with Bet365 to win the title, after what must have been one of the most satisfying victories of Brendan Rodgers’ managerial career. Although the opponents weren’t up too much in all honesty.

And finally onto Arsenal, and despite being on the same amount of points, and games played as Liverpool, the Gunners find themselves a massive 14/1 with a number of bookies to win the title this season.

Of all the bookies offering 14/1, SkyBet and Boylesports are both offering each-way (top 2 finish) at a quarter of the odds. So that’s effectively a second bet of 7/2 on Arsenal finishing in the top 2.

If all games in hand are won, Arsenal will be in 4th place on goal difference behind Liverpool. They would be 1 point behind Chelsea, and 4 behind City (who have still to visit the Emirates). Arsenal do go to Stamford Bridge on Saturday though, but is a result there totally out of the question on current form?

Arsenal’s fixture list is without doubt one of the main reason for their big price, but all I’m suggesting is that sillier things have happened, and who would have thought that Arsenal would still be in with a shout in the middle of March?

I for one will be investing a silly few quid on Arsenal at that price. This has been such a topsy turvy league season, that who knows who will win it, and how things might pan out in the end? Sitting 4 points off the top, with a game in hand, how can 14/1 be dismissed?

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Are Liverpool Now In The Title Race?

For so long it seems to have been a 3 horse race, maybe even 1 horse race, with quite a few people (including me) believing that it is Manchester City’s title to throw away. But now, surely we all have to start taking Liverpool’s chances of winning the title a lot more seriously.

Brendan Rodgers’ team are 6 points behind Chelsea, and at this stage of the season – with just 13 games and 39 points to play for – that is a big gap to close on a team as good as Chelsea.

There is also Arsenal and Manchester City to take into consideration, and even though Arsenal got smashed on Saturday, they are still second in the league, only 1 point behind Chelsea, and 5 ahead of Liverpool.

The best odds currently for Liverpool to win the Premier League is 14/1, and that is still available with Paddy Power (£50.00 Free Bet), Ladbrokes (£50.00 Free Bet) and Totepool (£10.00 Free Bet).

Some bookies have Liverpool as short as 11/1, with most coming in at 12/1. I get the impression that the 14/1 on Liverpool could soon vanish if they give Fulham a good hiding in their next match on Wednesday night (away at Craven Cottage).

Liverpool’s home form of late has been scintillating, they have destroyed Everton and Arsenal in recent weeks, and they are two of the best defensive sides in the Premier League. With form like this, they have to be taken as a serious threat.

They also have no distractions of Europe, unlike the 3 teams above them, meaning they can solely concentrate on the Premier League – they do have the FA Cup, but as we have seen all to often in the past, that can be sacrificed if required.

The draw away at West Brom a couple of weeks back is the sort of result they cannot afford though. Those are the sort of matches we have seen Manchester United win ugly in the past, when they were winning league titles (in what seems like light years ago at the moment).

Slip ups like that can’t happen if Liverpool are too close the 6 point gap, starting with their visit to Craven Cottage on Wednesday. These are the bread and butter matches, the ones where you just have to get a result, regardless of the performance.

With regard to a top 4 finish, the best price currently available for Liverpool is 4/11 with Bet365 (£200.00 in Free Bets available).

There is still a belief that City and Chelsea are out of site, as both are 1/100 for a top 4 finish, one bookmaker even has them both at 1/500. Arsenal are a best price of 1/7 with Skybet for a top 4 finish.

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Can Manchester United be trusted at 1/3 tonight?

I don’t like betting on short priced favourites, and it would be a massive leap of faith to back a short priced favourite in the form of Manchester United at the moment.

United’s form has just been so patchy lately, no one was surprised by Chelsea’s dismantling off them at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, and their home form has arguably been more worrying than their away form.

So priced up at 1/3 with Betfred at home to Sunderland tonight in the Capital One Cup looks a bit of a risky bet. In reality though this is probably United’s only realistic chance of any silverware this season, as I don’t think anybody really gives them much chance of any success in the Champions League.

Surely with a deficit from the 1st leg (they are 2-1 down for anybody just come back from Mars), they are going to beat Sunderland tonight? They just have too.

Will David Moyes risk either of, or maybe both of, Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie, who both returned to training this week? Surely in the case of van Persie in the long run, he can’t take the chance, while with Rooney, he may just have to go for it?

Even if they get through tonight, the chances are they could well get embarrassed by Manchester City at Wembley, given City’s current form. In a perverse sort of way, it might be better for Moyes’ to fail tonight, than get hammered by City at Wembley. Imagine what that could do his tenure as manager?

Anyway, with or without Rooney and van Persie, most of the bookmakers have United at 1/3 for tonight. Sunderland have done well in this competition so far, and can’t be taken lightly, so for me there is probably just too much doubt – and therefore lack of value – to take United at 1/3.

A bit more value could be had if you think a win for United will be enough to send them through on aggregate (ie, they win 2-0 or 3-2), you can get 2/5 on United to qualify for the final with Bet365.

Don’t forget that Bet365 offer £200.00 in free bets to new sign ups, and if you are having a 90 minute bet on the match tonight, you can take advantage of the 0-0 bore draw refund, or maybe the 100% Euro Soccer Bonus if you are having an accumulator (more details off these offers can be found in the side bar to the right).

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Chelsea in to 5/2 after United drubbing

It’s a case of ‘as you were’ at the top of the Premier League following the latest round of fixtures last weekend.

Despite Chelsea facing Manchester United, they were all pretty much routine victories as expected from the current big three, which gives us an indication of just how far David Moyes’ team have fallen behind this season.

Chelsea’s comprehensive victory did actually see their odds cut from 7/2 to 5/2 with Betfred, but they only really drifted because Manchester City and Arsenal already had their respective 3 points in the bank.

It’s that stage of the season where the big players start to turn the screw and knuckle down to the job in hand, and you get the feeling that Manchester City and Chelsea seem to be upping their games now and really mean business.

Although they are still clinging to that top spot, the punters and bookmakers still don’t make Arsenal favourites, it’s as if everybody is waiting for them to crack, and so far they haven’t.

As I stated above though, you do feel that City and Chelsea have cranked up the pressure somewhat lately, and Arsenal have had a couple of less than convincing home wins this month, with last Saturday’s 2-0 victory over Fulham, and the win over Cardiff by the same scoreline – with two very late goals – on New Year’s Day.

The punters seem to think either this team will crack under the pressure currently being exerted by City and Chelsea, or they aren’t convinced by the apparent lack of depth in the Gunners’ squad, with Wenger seemingly reluctant to buy some back up for Olivier Giroud – preferring to instead rely on Lukas Podolski and Nicklas Bendtner.

Or it could be that the punters simply don’t believe in Arsenal for a combination of both.

Either way, Arsene Wenger’s team are still only 3rd favourites with the bookmakers, Betfred currently make Manchester City favourites at 11/10, Chelsea are 5/2 and Arsenal are 7/2.

Don’t forget that as well as getting a £25.00 Free Bet from Betfred (when you open a new account), you also get Double Delight and Hat-trick Heaven on all Premier League matches covered live on Sky Sports.

This is an especially good offer if you like doing first goal scorer bets.

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Next Manager Markets – Billy Davies Backed For West Ham Job

With the general consensus of opinion being that today’s match against Cardiff could be Sam Allardyce’s last in charge, football gambling punters have got stuck into backing Billy Davies to become the next West Ham manager.

Since last Thursday evening, punters have sent Davies’ odds tumbling from 33/1, down to 3/1 with BetVictor (Harry Redknapp remains the favourite, at 7/4).

I’m not certain this is based on any specific intelligence, or just a coincidental hunch with people putting two and two together after Forest’s 5-0 win over West Ham last weekend, and coming up with 5 – or 11 in the case of West Ham’s leaky defence over the last week.

While backing at 33/1 isn’t a major risk, I certainly wouldn’t be backing at the 3/1 currently available on Davies. It is surely a risky strategy to be betting on the outcome of the next manager of a football club at such short odds, when there is uncertainty as to when the current incumbent will be leaving.

This isn’t like the Chelsea situation last season, when everyone knew Rafa Benitez would be leaving, so it was possible to bet on the outcome of a new manager.

The West Ham situation is totally different, David Gold and David Sullivan could back Allardyce until the end of the season – and possibly beyond, if he keeps them up with plenty to spare. Where might Billy Davies be then?

The two David’s also don’t have a track record of been trigger happy either, so beware if entering this market.

Despite this, Big Sam is still pretty much unbackable to be to the next manager sacked. He is currently a best price of 2/5 with Coral.

Another manager feeling the heat right now is David Moyes. At the moment, his position at Manchester United looks relatively safe (he is 16/1 to be the next Premier League manager out the door), and I don’t believe another defeat to Swansea City today would see the club’s hierarchy reach for the panic button.

What I think will influence them though, is the share price on the New York Stock Exchange. This is what I believe will ultimately condemn Moyes.

If the share price continues to nose dive under Moyes, then that’s when I believe the Glazer’s will act – no matter what Alex Ferguson and Bobby Charlton, etc, say. After all, we all know what the Glazer’s are interested in.

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Bets For Today

I am always on the look out for new betting systems and methods for making money for readers of this website. With this in mind, I thought I would write a post to bring it to your attention that I have added Bets For Today to the side panel in the ‘Betting Systems’ section.

Bets For Today is a free tipster email service. Personally, I don’t normally like giving out tips myself, but some people do like following tipsters, so it’s mainly for those readers that I am writing this.

The tips are daily, they are sent by email, and all tipster’s results are proofed on the website. By proofing the results in this way, they are leaving themselves open to any current members taking to Twitter, or other social media outlets, if the printed results don’t replicate the tips that were actually sent out.

The service is free to join, and you can unsubscribe at any time. The sports covered in the tips are Football, Horse Racing, Greyhounds, and you get Trading Tips to use on the Betting Exchanges.

As well as this, you also get occasional Free Systems, and Betting Advice and Help.

As long as you bet sensibly, there is really nothing to lose from giving this a try. If you want to sign up, just follow this link to Bets For Today….. and feel free to leave feedback as to how you get on using the service.

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Right time to back Man City for Premier League title?

Is now the right time to back Manchester City for the Premier League title?

The 7/4 currently on offer with Bet365 for City to win the league probably won’t return in a hurry – if at all – if Pellegrini’s side demolish Arsenal tomorrow, which they may well do.

The Champions League is gone for a few weeks now, and I believe that the competition had been effecting City in some of the away fixtures that fell around the time of Champions League weeks.

Containment seemed to be Pellegrini’s game plan, rather than sending his team out to win. City’s last two away games have seen a 3-2 victory over West Brom, and a 1-1 draw away at Southampton. Personally I think the Southampton match was a point gained.

If City can sort their away form out, I think that most punters would expect them to win the league. Their home form has been imperious. They are yet to drop a point at the Etihad Stadium, winning seven from seven. While Arsenal have the best away record in the top flight (5/1/1)

If City beat Arsenal on Saturday, their price will disappear. They are already favourites while 6 points behind the Gunners. So if you fancy City, now could well be the time to get on.

Bet365 have Manchester City at 4/5 to win the Saturday dinner time kick off. The Draw is 3/1 and Arsenal are 7/2. The Bet365 Bore Draw Refund also applies to this match.

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Premier League Betting

Manchester City seem to have come out of the weekend as the big winners in the betting as they now are favourites on their own to be the champions this season.

City were basically neck and neck with Manchester United and Chelsea before a ball was kicked, but their 4-0 demolition of Newcastle United on Monday night seems to have gone down as the most impressive result of the weekend.

From what I seen of the three matches, they all looked like glorified training sessions for the big three. They all won at a canter, and none of them ever looked to be in top gear. I actually though Chelsea looked the most comfortable, but I think their opponents have to be taken into consideration, as Hull – Tigers, or City, or whatever they are – were the weakest of the three opponents.

Ironically enough, Manchester United looked to have the most difficult fixture away at Swansea, and despite winning it 4-1, they now find themselves as third favourites.

At the moment Bet365 have Manchester City at 2.75, Chelsea at 3.00, and Manchester United are 4.00.

For United to drop out to 3/1 third favourites on the back of an impressive 4-1 win at Swansea is surprising and a bit baffling. Then again, if the football gambling community are expecting Wayne Rooney to be sold to Chelsea, that could be a big factor in this price.

It’s difficult placing a league winner bet at the moment. No one knows who will be at Old Trafford at the end of the transfer window, and I believe the odds currently reflect that. The only team that looks to have definitely finished their business is Manchester City, and I see Chelsea only being interested in Rooney.

Another factor why United’s price is longer could be that punters aren’t too impressed with David Moyes (so far).

Moyes seems to have been setting himself up for a fall with his transfer activity. I can’t see what’s going on with the Cesc Fabregas move, all the signs are that Fabregas isn’t going to move, so it’s probably going to look like a second snub after he missed out on Thiago Alcantara who moved to Bayern Munich.

I believe Moyes could be leaving himself open for a right shoeing off the media if United stutter over the coming few weeks. Not only will he get a good kicking over form, but also on missing out on Alcantara and (probably) Fabregas, and his handling of the Rooney situation. Knowing the press, they already have their pens ready.

This is one of the reasons why I find the Fabregas pursuit strange. Surely Fabregas should have been sounded out already? If he hasn’t been, this is a big mistake by Moyes, and will make him look amateurish.

A lot of this sort of business is generally done behind closed doors. Players make it clear they wish to sign before bids are made, I’m not convinced that has been done with Fabregas, while I believe Rooney has made it clear he is happy to sign for Chelsea.

Then again, maybe Fabregas has been sounded out, and he has made it clear he wants to come to United. And Rooney may still be at Old Trafford at the end of the transfer window, and Moyes will have played a blinder. The next 11 days or so will tell us one way or another. And only then do I believe we will see a genuine price on Manchester United.

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Pre Match Trading – Week 41 Results

4 June Japan v Australia / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.00
5 June England U21 v Italy U21 / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.79
5 June Sao Paulo v Goias / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.49
7 June Croatia v Scotland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 43p
9 June Netherlands U21 v Russia U21 / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.06
9 June Brazil v France / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.84

A week’s online football trading profit of £9.61

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £270.43. My football betting bank now stands at £370.43, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

It was a slightly busier period this week with six matches traded, compared to the to matches traded last week.

I traded all the matches using my two ticks method, where I place my lay bet two ticks below trading price – and my back bet, two ticks above trading price.

This method of trading seems to be working well at the moment. Although I haven’t been hit by a price going downhill like a runaway train lately, which is always helpful.

I suppose without properly analysing a block of results it will be hard to know whether a good run of wins is down to an improvement in strategy, or down to no one off large losses (which I had a spate of, a few weeks back).

I expect a quiet week next week as I will probably be trading cricket, with the ICC Champions Trophy currently in progress, and some golf, with the US Open starting on Thursday.

The Confederations Cup also starts on Saturday, so that could hopefully lead to some good trading opportunities from the weekend and onwards.

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Pre Match Trading – Week 37 Results

8 May Chelsea v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.11
9 May Leicester v Watford / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.84
10 May C Palace v Brighton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.43
11 May Aston Villa v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.16
11 May Man City v Wigan / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.94
11 May Espanyol v Real Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.25
12 May Watford v Leicester / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.09
12 May Stoke v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.56
12 May Malaga v Sevilla / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.07

A week’s online football trading profit of £21.45

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £250.46. My football betting bank now stands at £350.46, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

This is more like where I want to be. My weekly target is around 7.5% profit (basically I am happy with anything between 5% and 10%), and Week 37 seen a profit of just over 9% come in. And that was just from the nine matches traded.

The last few weeks have really seen a turn around in fortunes, and it is now starting to reflect in the betting bank.

Without wishing to bore, I am still using my two ticks above and below the back and lay price method (for those not familiar, I mention it every week now). And I am also sometimes going three ticks above and below, mainly on matches with lower liquidity.

Sometimes I’m finding I don’t get matched, but that’s ok as it’s slowly dawning on me that I don’t need to get involved in every match. And as making 9% profit from just nine traded matches shows, not having a losing trade can make a huge difference.

In the past I don’t think I put much emphasis on not losing. I think I traded with the attitude that I needed to get involved in as many matches as possible and in the long run the wins would outweigh the losses.

Which judging by the results from December to March, was clearly the wrong attitude.

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