Chelsea Relegation Betting

The unthinkable surely can’t happen can it? After last night’s 2-1 defeat away at Leicester, Chelsea currently sit in sixteenth place, just two places and one point off the bottom three, but does anybody realistically think they are going to go down?

At the moment there is a lack of togetherness in the bookies odds on Chelsea going down. Some bookies are as short as 33/1 or 50/1, but there are still a few offering 100/1 on the Blues going down as defending Champions.

At the moment Totepool, Betfred, Coral and Betfair are all offering 100/1 on Chelsea going down. If you haven’t already got accounts with any of these, you can open them here and get the following free bet offers…..

Personally, I don’t think they will go down. I only have one slight doubt in my conviction that Chelsea won’t go down, and that is because it does look to me that Mourinho has lost certain elements of the dressing room, if not nearly all of it.

He criticised the players quite emphatically after the Leicester defeat, using words like ‘betrayal’ and claiming that maybe they overachieved the season before, because of Mourinho himself, rather than the players. Talk like that is hardly going to win back the dressing room.

So if the owner continues to back Mourinho, is there any real sign of the current situation changing? That said, I can’t see the current situation being allowed to run until the end of the season.

So rather than Chelsea going down, it’s far more likely that Mourinho will be sacked well before that days arrives. This is backed up in the betting, with Mourinho 10/11 to be next manager out, and Chelsea at 100/1 to be relegated.

Mourinho also looks lost as to what he can do to put things right. He’s tried dropping players, and giving them a kick up the backside, and that hasn’t really worked. His one big weakness to me though is that he looks too stuck in his ways to have a really radical shake up. He recently went with the false number 9, but beyond that there has been no real change in formation, and still seems so reluctant to put any real trust in some of the squad players.

There was some fight in the second half against Leicester last night, but the damage was already long done. Some of the defending was awful, which it totally unlike any Mourinho side. In fairness to Chelsea though, they did create a number of good chances in the final 30 minutes, and on another day could easily have fought back for at least a draw.

It was probably the events after the match that were more telling though. Mourinho’s criticism of his players was stinging, and it’s hard to see how that is going to help repair what already looks a fractious relationship between manager and players. It’s starting to look like the writing’s on the wall for the so called Special One!

Pre Match Trading – Week 14 Results

28th November Southampton v Norwich / Match Odds – Won 38p
28th November Stoke v Newcastle / Match Odds – Lost £4.17
1st December Fulham v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.23
1st December Barcelona v Ath Bilbao / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £3.54
1st December Real Madrid v Atl Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.07
2nd December Granada v Espanyol / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £2.42
2nd December Burnley v Blackburn / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £3.93
2nd December Norwich v Sunderland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.39
2nd December Mallorca v Zaragoza / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.44

A week’s football online trading profit of £3.53.

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £108.55. My betting bank now stands at £208.55, I started off the experiment with a football betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

Week 14 was one of my worst week’s football trading using this system. As you can see from the first two games traded, I switched tactics and traded the outright winner market, as opposed to the usual Over/Under 2.5 goals market.

The Southampton V Norwich game was just a modest £40.00 trade as the majority of my betting bank was stuck in a large hole trading the Stoke V Newcastle game at the time.

The pre match trade on Stoke V Newcastle was a cock up brought about by a couple of cardinal sins. My first sin was to listen to someone else’s advice, and the second was me placing my bet with a view to what I thought would happen in the game, as opposed to what the market might do, pre match.

By that what I mean is that I thought Stoke would win, so when I heard on the radio that morning that they were just over Even money, I thought I had to have a bit of that. And when the market wakes up to the fact that Stoke are overpriced, the Even money on Stoke would soon get snapped up, meaning an easy pre match win.

I phoned my bet through at about 11.30AM, getting 2.08 on a Stoke win and thought no more about it until I got home. On checking my Betfair account at about 7.30PM, I was shocked to see Stoke where 2.24 to lay, and me looking at a red of about £8.00.

After a lot of frantic late trading I managed to get the red down to an acceptable £4.17.

This trade was flawed for a number of reasons. I shouldn’t be trading on the whim of a punters opinion on the radio, I shouldn’t be trading because I think a team should win (it’s irrelevant pre match, as it’s how the market is going to react that’s relevant), and I had no internet access during the day to see how the market was behaving (I phoned the bet through, I couldn’t keep ringing up to see how the market was behaving), basically I wasn’t in a position to react to any major market movements.

I have stressed on this betting site many a time that I should only trade when I can give it my full attention, and clearly this trade didn’t have my full attention.

For the rest of the week I went back to basics and traded the Overs/Unders markets and managed to make a profit trading these markets. I think sometimes I can get a bit over adventurous while football trading and end up trying to be too smart. It’s amazing how after a loss I go back to basics and just simply trade out for a profit at the first attempt, and as a result, I make money.

I do sometimes ask myself why I just don’t trade like that full stop! But I suppose if I did, I may miss out on finding a new niche to trade, or technique to use. After all, this is the right time to experiment, while I’m using a couple of hundred of quid – as opposed to a couple of grand.