Betfair Crashes Again

Saturday’s aren’t getting any better for traders and gamblers who use Betfair for placing their bets. Yet again yesterday (Saturday 31st March), there was another outage on the site on a Saturday afternoon, during the football fixtures.

It’s obviously not just the football gambling that gets affected, the main bulk of the day’s horse racing takes place at this time of the day as well.

It’s also nothing new, this sort of thing has been going on for a long time now. It’s got to a stage now where I wouldn’t dare risk getting involved in a big football trade, or bet, on a Saturday afternoon.

The reaction on Twitter was as to be expected. Lots of people claiming they will be opening Betdaq accounts as soon as possible. For my part, I would definitely recommend having a Betdaq account.

It’s not a perfect solution as depending on which market you are trading, the liquidity on Betdaq can be very low, or in some instances non existent.

It would give you the opportunity to potentially cover a bet though, if it was a big TV game or a main market (outright winner betting, etc), there could be an opportunity to cover your bet.

It stands to reason that the more punters who use Betdaq, the better the liquidity will get. Reading my Twitter feed yesterday, there would appear to be a whole host of traders wishing to jump ship if there was more liquidity and markets.

There looks to be a great opportunity for Betdaq to exploit if somebody wishes to take the bull by the horns.

Betfair can’t go on like this, they really need to get their act together in my opinion, they need to remember they are not the only betting exchange in town.

I believe it is a great product that works really well, but it is currently being ruined by basic elementary stuff. It’s not too much to ask for, to expect a website to work!

To open a Betdaq account and claim up to £/$/€200 in free bets, please click here….

Pre Match Trading – Week 19 Results

1st January West Brom v Fulham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.13
1st January Swansea v Aston Villa / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £9.71
1st January Swansea v Aston Villa / Match Odds – Won £1.16
1st January Southampton v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £2.59
2nd January Newcastle v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £3.41
2nd January Chelsea v QPR / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.02
2nd January Chelsea v QPR / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £1.41
6th January Mansfield v Liverpool / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 59p
6th January Celta Vigo v Valladolid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.77
6th January Udinese v Inter / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 86p
6th January Barcelona v Espanyol / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – LOST £4.00
6th January Napoli v Roma / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £5.28

A week’s football online trading loss of £15.69

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £139.32. My football betting bank now stands at £239.32, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

It had to happen one week, and unfortunately when it, it did so in spectacular style.

Yes, it was my first losing week! Obviously I’m going to be annoyed at losing, but the thing that really peed me off the most, was my reaction to losing.

It all started to go wrong with the Swansea V Aston Villa game. After that loss, my mind seemed to go AWOL and I lost track of my long term objective. I stopped thinking about the bigger picture and just got annoyed and went hell bent on winning back my loss, I was trading any match without even thinking about it.

I do believe I got away with it though, although it was more by luck than judgement. I had 6 losing trades over the week, but I only lost a week or two’s profit overall, so it wasn’t the worst outcome. Put it another way, I can remember doing a lot more damage to my betting bank in the past.

For the first time (I can recall) since I started doing this though, I got really frustrated and my football trading became reckless. I think it was the manner of the loss in the match that triggered the bad reaction.

It was one of those trades I have referred to in the past, where the odds just seems to drift for no apparent rhyme or reason, this time for about 8 ticks (sub 2.00).

What happened seemed strange to me, both teams had long been announced and the odds were stable, and then all of a sudden it went south by about 8 ticks.

In the past I have agonised about whether or not to sit tight and wait and hope for the odds to come back, or whether to just assume this is the odds’ new home, so trade out and start the process again from in the red.

Well this time I took the latter option, and to my incandescent rage, the odds then came back to where I had initially entered the trade. I was absolutely fuming, as I felt I had basically lost twice.

Without going into the mechanics of the trade, I have now been reminded that my biggest foe when I am trading is ’emotion.’ This week’s trading has shown me that no matter how much I think I have cracked it, ’emotion’ is a weakness that is always there waiting to pounce.

I imagine this is how an alcoholic must feel, for weeks he/she may feel in control, then one week something happens and it triggers off all the old demons.

For any new readers to the website, don’t worry I’m not getting my knickers in a twist over losing 15 quid in a week. I’m fuming about how my discipline went slightly out of the window after weeks of calm football trading, it is the process and how I feel I failed it that is disappointing me, the money is secondary at the moment.

In the long run, I plan to trade with a four figure (plus) betting bank. This week’s trading activities has shown me that I am still far from ready to be able to trust myself with this amount of money in a betting exchange account.

Ok, so I haven’t wrecked the whole thing, but it has just served to remind me how fragile the mind can be, and how sometimes – no matter how obvious it is to an on looker – I still can’t see the wood for the trees.

Betting Exchanges

The innovation of the betting exchange gave the gambling industry it’s biggest shake up for years. The betting exchanges totally transformed the online betting landscape and forced the conventional online bookmakers to awaken from their complacency, as they realised that us mug punters no longer needed to continue hand feeding them our hard earned cash.

I now rely on a betting exchange for all of my football trading and some of my football betting. In my opinion, they are brilliant for online betting, and my football trading couldn’t operate without them.

I actually have accounts with two betting exchanges, Betfair and Betdaq. There is a good reason for this, I use my Betfair account for my serious football trading, and I use my Betdaq account for my speculative, bit of fun bets.

Betfair currently charge commission at a rate of 5%, while Betdaq charge only 3%. The reason why I use Betfair and their 5%, is because they have more markets and far more liquidity, and for the markets I currently trade in, I need plenty of liquidity.

The 3% commission from Betdaq is great though, and as a result I am happy to use them for my speculative bets. The big games is where I have an opinion (that is usually wrong), and there is generally just about enough liquidity to get my ‘mug punter’ small bets matched in running on these games.

Unfortunately though, there is just not enough liquidity with Betdaq in the markets for my Over/Under 2.5 goals pre match trades, and Assured Soccer Profits, so I have to lump the 5% commission and stick with Betfair to trade these markets.

If you do prefer football trading to football betting, then a betting exchange account is a must. This is highlighted by the fact that Assured Soccer Profits and the Pre Match Trading, have both built and sell their trading products based on Betfair usage.

A betting exchange account is also needed for matched betting. With how matched betting works, without a betting exchange account it would be virtually impossible to implement this system.

While I’m on the subject of matched betting, Betfair offer a £20.00 free bet if your first bet loses, while Betdaq offer a £30.00 free bet if your first bet loses.

Cashing out these sort of free bets using the matched betting method is a bit of a pain in the backside. So an alternative to this is to open accounts with both, find an event with two ‘runners’ and back one with Betfair and one with Betdaq.

To qualify for the Betdaq free bet, your first bet has to be placed at odds of 2.00 (Even money) or greater. So basically find a bet at over 2.00 on Betdaq and put £30.00 on it. Try and find an event with odds of around 2.1 for this.

Then have £30.00 on the other runner with Betfair with odds of around 1.9 and have £33.00 on it. This way whoever wins, you will get back just over £61.00, and it will have cost you £63.00 to place the two bets.

But you will now have either a £30.00 free bet, or a £20.00 free bet, which you can now guarantee a profit with using the matched betting method.

How Matched Betting Works

Following on from my article about what is matched betting, here I’m going to write about how matched betting works.

To start with, you will need a betting exchange account. I use Betfair, there is others, including Betdaq.

The reason why you will need a betting exchange account is to lay off your first (qualifying) bet, and a proportion of your free bets (this is how matched betting makes money).

I have written an article about the best free bets to use for matched betting, and from that article I’m going to use a £50.00 free bet to give you an example of how matched betting works.

Some online bookmakers have a minimum stipulation that your first (qualifying) bet has to be placed at odds of 2.00 (Even money) or greater in order to qualify for the free bet. So for the benefit of this example I’m going to work on that theory.

First (and like with all matched bets I place), I would select a football match or sporting event where the odds with the bookmaker is as close to the odds with the betting exchange, as possible.

Then I would place my qualifying bet like this…..

Back Team A @ 2.00 (Even money) with online bookmaker for £50.00.

Lay Team A @ 2.00 (approximately) or nearest price, ie 2.02 or 2.04, on betting exchange for approximately £50.00, to cover qualifying bet and get as close to £50.00 back as possible.

Once this is all settled and I have received my free bet, I would then use my free bet on a different football match or sporting event like this……..

Back Team A @ 4.0 (3/1) with online bookmaker for £50.00.

Lay Team A @ 4.1 (approximately) or nearest price, ie 4.2 or 4.3, on betting exchange for £37.00 (approximately), this guarantees me a profit of around £35.00.

It breaks down like this…… if the free bet wins I will receive £150.00 from the online bookmaker and lose £114.70 on the betting exchange – a profit of £35.30.

If the free bet loses, I get nothing from the online bookmaker (but don’t lose anything, as it was a free bet) and I get back £35.15 on the betting exchange – a profit of £35.15.

As I already stated, this is just an example of how I would do things. The prices I have quoted in my example can’t be guaranteed. As a rule of thumb, if I find a bet of 2.00 (Even money) with an online bookmakers, the chances are it will be somewhere between 2.02 and 2.08 to lay on Betfair.

Likewise with my free bet example. If I found a price of 4.00 (3/1) to back with the online bookmaker, the price on Betfair to lay the bet would probably be somewhere between 4.1 and 4.4.

This is why I quote ‘approximately’ in my examples. If the qualifying bet is placed at 2.00, and the lay bet is priced at 2.06, the amount needed to lay the bet (after commission) would be slightly more than £50.00.

It is important to be patient and take time when looking for a qualifying or free bet for matched betting, as the closer the odds are between the online bookmaker and the betting exchange the better, as it results in greater profits.

In general though, it is highly likely that when placing any qualifying bets a small percentage will be lost. From my own point of view, if I was placing a £50.00 qualifying bet I would be looking to get a minimum of £47.50 returned on it, meaning a small loss of £2.50 (5%), any higher and I wouldn’t do it.

When it comes to the free bets, I always look to make 60% profit (ie, £30.00 returned on a £50.00 free bet). After I have taken off any possible loss from my qualifying bet, I would want a minimum total return of 55% of my free bet value, although I generally get 60% these days.

This is a typical process I have followed while cashing in my free bets for matched betting. I hope I have explained things clearly, if anyone needs any help with matched betting, feel free to leave a comment and ask – I’ll be very happy to help out in any way I can.