Football Betting Systems

Profits Using Pre Match Trading Tool

The Pre Match Trading tool has worked perfectly ahead of the England V Moldova match. I took a look at the Over/Under 3.5 goals market on Betfair last night, and immediately thought it looked too high. It was trading at around 2.08-2.10 on over 3.5 goals.

I then checked pre match trading, and the tool told me that the real price of over 3.5 goals should be 2.04, so I immediately put a back bet up at 2.10. The back bet got matched, and sure enough I managed to trade out this morning at 2.04. As I write, it is currently trading lower.

In the past I would have put a back bet up at 2.12, and a lay bet at 2.06. So I would have ended up out of pocket, as only my lay bet would have got matched, and the market is now trading well below the 2.06.

As I already stated, I thought the market looked high, but what I didn’t know was if I was correct in my judgement. And if I was correct, how high was it trading?

Having access to the pre match trading tool allowed me to know all these details, allowing me to put a larger gap in my back and lay bets (in the past I would have traded out for a one tick profit), and ensuring a nice profit well before kick-off.

More details about Prematchtrading can be found here…..

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Pre Match Trading – Week 43 Results

17 June Tahiti v Nigeria / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.80
17 June Tahiti v Nigeria / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £1.56
18 June Italy U21 v Spain U21 / Match Odds – Won £4.26
19 June Brazil v Mexico / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £1.04
20 June Nigeria v Uruguay / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.86
22 June Italy v Brazil / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.27
23 June Nigeria v Spain / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £2.62

A week’s online football trading profit of £12.33

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £288.07. My football betting bank now stands at £388.07, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

A slightly busier week that the previous one with plenty of Confederations Cup activity and the final of the Under 21 European Championships traded.

I slightly deviated from my usual Over/Under 2.5 goals trades to get involved in the U21 European Championships final as I could only see the Spain price in the 90 minute betting going one way.

It was trading at just under 1.8, and I couldn’t really see it drifting so I managed to trade it a couple of times, twice backing at 1.79, and twice laying at 1.77.

In fairness it didn’t come in as I expected it would, as I thought it might steam in 6 or 7 ticks, but it moved around enough to allow me to trade in and out a couple of times for a nice quick profit.

The rest of the trades were pretty much standard trades. I made a bit of a mess of both the Brazil trades, I should have picked up more than I did in their match against Italy, and I shouldn’t have lost in their match against Mexico.

In fact the Brazilians cost me throughout the whole bloody tournament.

Getting closer to that £400.00 barrier now….. something is bound to go wrong, arghhhhhh

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Brazil head the World Cup Betting

Well, I don’t think I could have called it much worse if I had tried too. For those not sure what I am on about, my blog post on Sunday about the Confederations Cup Final Betting said… If they are back on form tonight, I expect another trophy will be added to Spain’s growing portfolio.

What happened after that, I don’t know. Why did Spain perform so badly? Even football gamblers who fancied a Brazil win surely didn’t see that result coming!

I heard one Match of the Day pundit say that Spain were on the plane home after a minute and a half of the game, have to say I totally agree with that analysis.

I’d still take Spain to come out winners if they play Brazil in the World Cup next year. Torres and Mata both started on Sunday, and I don’t see either of them as first choice starters for me.

I also do think del Bosque used the competition to see how Spain faired playing a conventional number nine, and he also used it to give Torres a chance to prove himself. That said, Spain definitely wanted to win the trophy, and nothing can be taken away from Brazil, who were excellent and surprised me.

The crowd were amazing and I know it’s a cliche, but they surely must have been like a twelve man to Brazil.

I did a few quid on the game. When Brazil went a goal up, I thought they looked like a great lay on Betfair, I then topped that lay up at 2-0. Not my night I’m afraid! Never mind.

Anyway, Brazil are now the 7/2 favourites with the online bookmakers to win the 2014 World Cup. They are followed by previous favourites Argentina, and Germany, who are both 5/1. And Spain are now out to 11/2 on the back of that thrashing.

I still think the Spanish are the better of those four teams, and I would still back them to beat Brazil in a world cup match. Can Spain win a fourth tournament running though? The law of averages alone suggests not.

It’s a probability that they will get beaten by someone at the world cup next year. We have seen it many times in the past, the best side doesn’t always win a knock out tournament. And although I still see Spain as the best side, I don’t think I could back them to win next year’s world cup.

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Pre Match Trading – Week 41 Results

4 June Japan v Australia / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.00
5 June England U21 v Italy U21 / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.79
5 June Sao Paulo v Goias / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.49
7 June Croatia v Scotland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 43p
9 June Netherlands U21 v Russia U21 / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.06
9 June Brazil v France / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.84

A week’s online football trading profit of £9.61

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £270.43. My football betting bank now stands at £370.43, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

It was a slightly busier period this week with six matches traded, compared to the to matches traded last week.

I traded all the matches using my two ticks method, where I place my lay bet two ticks below trading price – and my back bet, two ticks above trading price.

This method of trading seems to be working well at the moment. Although I haven’t been hit by a price going downhill like a runaway train lately, which is always helpful.

I suppose without properly analysing a block of results it will be hard to know whether a good run of wins is down to an improvement in strategy, or down to no one off large losses (which I had a spate of, a few weeks back).

I expect a quiet week next week as I will probably be trading cricket, with the ICC Champions Trophy currently in progress, and some golf, with the US Open starting on Thursday.

The Confederations Cup also starts on Saturday, so that could hopefully lead to some good trading opportunities from the weekend and onwards.

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Pre Match Trading – Week 40 Results

29 May England v Rep of Ireland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.73
1 June Bayern Munich v Stuttgart / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.42

A week’s online football trading profit of £4.15

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £260.82. My football betting bank now stands at £360.82, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

Another quiet week, with just the two matches traded.

I only got involved in the match between England and Republic of Ireland once. It was one of those matches of which the market was hard to read, so after one trade I just decided to leave it alone.

It was a similar case with the Champions League final between Munich and Dortmund, this time my activity was limited as I was more interested in concentrating on making the most of the regular £50 Bet365 Free Bet for existing customers.

With this in mind, I just done a couple of trades in the afternoon, and then left it alone again. I was trying to get my qualifying bet (for my free bet) on at a certain price, so I didn’t want to have any distractions going on.

I know it’s not difficult to do both, but I find at times if I’ve got two things going on at once, one can accidentally get overlooked. This can lead to cock ups which can cost money, so on this occasion an over cautious safety first approach was adopted (some might call it sensible).

I’m hoping to get involved in more matches next week with the Under 21 European Championships starting and some World Cup qualifiers to be played.

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Pre Match Trading – Week 39 Results

20 May Mallorca v Betis / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.12

A week’s online football trading profit of £4.12

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £256.67. My football betting bank now stands at £356.67, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

Not much to report this week, as there was just the one match traded, so thankfully it was a win. I had to trade this match three times to get over £4.00 green on both sides.

I get the feeling it’s going to be a quiet few weeks over the summer. I know that there’s leagues going on all over the world, but it’s finding matches with enough liquidity to trade that’s the problem. It will at least give me the opportunity to try out the system on matches I know nothing about, which is something I have been looking to do for some time now.

I’ve mentioned it in recent posts, I want to look at the possibility of being able to use this system on any football match. In order to see if this will work in the long run, I will need to examine the difference between trading matches I know something about, and trading matches I know nothing about. I suppose at this time of year, I have no option but to try the latter.

The one match I traded this week is a prime example of this. If I’m totally honest I don’t know much about the two teams involved. So what’s the difference between trading this match, and one in South America (liquidity aside)?

Moving onto other issues, and the summer months will give me time to experiment with other systems and start to look at my season long bets for next year. I will probably leave placing my season bets for next year until new managers are announced and players are signed, but I will certainly keep an eye on football bookies online to see if there is any early summer bargains to be had.

Chelsea could be a big betting mover if Mourinho comes in. It won’t just be him, there is certain to be a couple of massive signings arriving with him. I believe the markets have factored in Mourinho arriving, but maybe not a couple of world beating signings. This is just an example of what I will be looking at.

I will also try out Assured Soccer Profits this summer, as that is a system that definitely requires no real football knowledge, so is ideal for this time of year.

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More Profits From The Bet365 Free Bet For Existing Customers

Saturday night’s Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund seen a nice risk free £33.25 made by using the £50.00 Bet365 free bet for existing customers.

In the end I chose to use the matched betting method to cash in the bet. As opposed to just having a risk free, free bet – as described in previous post.

For anybody interested, this is what I did. To start with I backed Bayern Munich with Bet365 for £50.00 at 1.75, giving me a return of £87.50. I then placed a lay bet of £50.00 on Bayern with Betfair, which after commission would have given me a £47.50 win (after commission), or a £40.00 loss.

This meant I paid out £90.00 on my qualifying bet, and was guaranteed £87.50 back. Resulting in a loss of £2.50.

Without wishing to overcomplicate things for people not familiar with this process, you rarely get all your money back with a qualifying bet due to Betfair commission (you pay commission on all winnings), and the fact that Betfair’s lay odds are generally higher than the back price with the bookmaker.

What it boils down to, is that I basically bought a £50.00 free bet for £2.50. And that’s good value in my book.

Going back to the qualifying bet, and I missed the 1.8 (4/5) available all Saturday morning on Bet365 for Bayern, and ended up having to take 1.75. I was a bit annoyed when I checked back that evening to see the 1.8 was back, but never mind.

The reason why getting the 1.8 available on Bayern would have been all the better, was because that was their back price on Betfair most of the day, meaning I could have placed my qualifying bet with minimum loss (less than the £2.50 I did lose).

Onto the free bet now. I waited until half time and had a look at the markets to see if anything was in the price range I was looking for. Over 2.5 goals was 3.75 to back with Bet365, and remarkably – was the same price to lay on Betfair.

So I quickly put the £50.00 free bet on with Bet365 @ 3.75. This meant I stood to win £137.50 with Bet365 (not including my £50.00 stake).

I then placed my lay bet of Over 2.5 goals on Betfair. I put £37.00 up at 3.75, this gave me a £101.75 loss, or a £35.15 win after commission.

So if Over 2.5 goals won I got back £187.50 from Bet365. £137.50 in winnings, and my £50.00 stake. Take away the £101.75 loss on Betfair from my £137.50 win with Bet365, and that meant a potential profit of £35.75 on my free bet.

If Over 2.5 goals lost, I would get my £50.00 stake back from Bet365, and I would win £35.15 (after commission) on Betfair. So I stood to win over £35.00 either way.

In the end, Over 2.5 goals won, which meant I got £35.75 back. After I took the £2.50 (from the qualifying bet) off, I was left with a risk free profit of £33.25

In one respect it was a bad result though, as both of the bets placed with Bet365 won. In an ideal world the two bets placed with Bet365 would have lost. This would have kept Bet365 happy, and it would have kept my betting bank in Betfair – where I need it for my general football trading.

As well as offering these £50.00 free bets to existing customers on a regular basis, Bet365 also offer new customers up to £200.00 in free bets. To open a Bet365 and claim these, please click here….

If you wish to open a Betfair account for matched betting, or/and football trading, please click here….

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Bet365 Free Bet for existing customers to use on Champions League Final

This weekend sees another Bet365 Free Bet offer as yet again they are running their £50.00 free bet for existing (and new) customers, this time to be used on Saturday’s Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

This represents another chance for us to bag ourselves another guaranteed risk free £35.00 using the matched betting method. This is where I would cover the qualifying bet on a betting exchange (I use Betfair). And then after I have placed the free bet, I would then lay off a proportion of the free bet to guarantee a return no matter what.

It basically works like this. For the qualifying bet, I would back Bayern at 1.8 on Bet365 for £50, and then I would lay Bayern on Betfair for approximately £50 (aim to get back as close to £90 as possible).

Once that’s all done, I would wait until half time so that a goal can’t be scored while placing the bets, and then place my free bet. I usually look for something at around 3/1 to back with Bet365. This means I get back £150.00 if the free bet wins.

I would then lay a proportion of the 3/1 shot on Betfair. It will usually be around 4.2 to 4.3 to lay. If I’m laying at 4.3, I would lay £35.50. This would give me a guaranteed profit of just over £33.70 after commission.

If you can find a 7/2 or 4/1 shot to back and lay, you should clear £35.00 profit.

Alternatively, you could just have a risk free, free bet. Again you will need to cover your qualifying bet on Betfair (ie, back Bayern for £50 with Bet365, and then lay them for approximately £50 on Betfair). And then have the £50.00 free bet in running on whatever you want. If it wins great, if it loses, so what, it’s a free bet and hasn’t cost you anything.

Either way, it represents great value and is why I would recommend to anyone that they open themselves a Bet365 account.

Remember, to qualify for the free bet, you will need to place your £50.00 qualifying bet pre kick off. You then place a bet in-running, the in-running bet is your free bet. If the in-running bet losses, you get your £50.00 back. It’s as simple as that.

There is one of these free bet offers every month from Bet365. I’ve been in this business now for a long time now and I can say that I’ve never known another online bookmaker offer a £50.00 free bet to existing customers on such a regular basis. I have rarely seen a bookie offer a £50.00 free bet full stop, never mind one every month or so.

Onto the match itself and at the moment Bet365 make Bayern Munich the clear favourites to win the cup. 90 minute betting sees Bayern Munich at 4/5, the draw at 3/1 and Borussia Dortmund at 7/2.

To win the Champions League outright, Bayern are 2/5 and Dortmund are 21/10, making the German champions the clear favourites.

I half think Bayern could run away with it, and I half think it could be a tight affair, I really don’t know to be honest. Considering Munich bottled the final last year, I would be a touch apprehensive about backing them at odds on in any capacity.

One bet I do like though is the ‘Method of Victory’ bet, which I think offers good value. I’m going to be backing penalties both ways, Bet365 currently have Bayern 12/1 to win on penalties, and Dortmund 14/1 to win on penalties.

As well as a bit of value, it’s the irony of the prospect of a German side losing a penalty shoot out at Wembley. It could only happen against another German team!

For more information, or to open a Bet365 account please click here……

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Pre Match Trading – Week 38 Results

13 May Brighton v C Palace / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 94p
13 May Sociedad v Granada / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £1.00
15 May Benfica v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.78
15 May Palmeiras v Tijuana / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £8.06
19 May Tottenham v Sunderland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 96p
19 May Newcastle v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.47

A week’s online football trading profit of £2.09

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £252.55. My football betting bank now stands at £352.55, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

When trading football on Betfair, it only takes one dodgy trade to ruin a weeks figures, and that’s exactly what happened this week.

The game in question I knew nothing about. It was a late night match on a Wednesday, and I tried to trade a gap in the market. Obviously the market was misaligned as my lay of Under 2.5 goals got matched (my back bet didn’t), and the price then continued to get backed in.

I placed my back and lay bets one tick above and below the market price. With the gap already in the market, I assumed that left me a lot of leverage (if the price was wrong or moved). Clearly that wasn’t enough leverage as the price was clearly wrong. And then to compound that misjudgement, the odds continued to get backed in.

I’m not sure if it was wrong to get involved in the match. I want to be able to use this system on as many matches as possible, so I need to explore trading football matches I know nothing about.

I want to find out if this is a system that can be used only on matches I know something about, or if it can be an emotionless, statistical system that can be used on nearly any match.

I’ve won and lost trading with and without knowledge. Sometimes though, knowledge is key. For example, if it was Manchester United V West Ham the Saturday before a Champions League fixture, it would be good to use the knowledge gained to know not to get involved before the teams are announced as Moyes may keep his big names on the bench, meaning a big price shift.

Moving forward, it’s something for me to ponder as I try to hone the system. I know trading Over/Under 2.5 goals a tick at a time sounds pretty basic (and it is), but trying to eliminate as many of the little things that can go wrong (as possible) is important, as some weeks this can be the difference between profit and break even, or loss.

Don’t forget, you can now follow football gambler on Facebook.

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Pre Match Trading – Week 37 Results

8 May Chelsea v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.11
9 May Leicester v Watford / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.84
10 May C Palace v Brighton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.43
11 May Aston Villa v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.16
11 May Man City v Wigan / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.94
11 May Espanyol v Real Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.25
12 May Watford v Leicester / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.09
12 May Stoke v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.56
12 May Malaga v Sevilla / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.07

A week’s online football trading profit of £21.45

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £250.46. My football betting bank now stands at £350.46, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

This is more like where I want to be. My weekly target is around 7.5% profit (basically I am happy with anything between 5% and 10%), and Week 37 seen a profit of just over 9% come in. And that was just from the nine matches traded.

The last few weeks have really seen a turn around in fortunes, and it is now starting to reflect in the betting bank.

Without wishing to bore, I am still using my two ticks above and below the back and lay price method (for those not familiar, I mention it every week now). And I am also sometimes going three ticks above and below, mainly on matches with lower liquidity.

Sometimes I’m finding I don’t get matched, but that’s ok as it’s slowly dawning on me that I don’t need to get involved in every match. And as making 9% profit from just nine traded matches shows, not having a losing trade can make a huge difference.

In the past I don’t think I put much emphasis on not losing. I think I traded with the attitude that I needed to get involved in as many matches as possible and in the long run the wins would outweigh the losses.

Which judging by the results from December to March, was clearly the wrong attitude.

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