13 May Brighton v C Palace / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 94p
13 May Sociedad v Granada / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £1.00
15 May Benfica v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.78
15 May Palmeiras v Tijuana / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £8.06
19 May Tottenham v Sunderland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 96p
19 May Newcastle v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.47
A week’s online football trading profit of £2.09
Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £252.55. My football betting bank now stands at £352.55, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.
When trading football on Betfair, it only takes one dodgy trade to ruin a weeks figures, and that’s exactly what happened this week.
The game in question I knew nothing about. It was a late night match on a Wednesday, and I tried to trade a gap in the market. Obviously the market was misaligned as my lay of Under 2.5 goals got matched (my back bet didn’t), and the price then continued to get backed in.
I placed my back and lay bets one tick above and below the market price. With the gap already in the market, I assumed that left me a lot of leverage (if the price was wrong or moved). Clearly that wasn’t enough leverage as the price was clearly wrong. And then to compound that misjudgement, the odds continued to get backed in.
I’m not sure if it was wrong to get involved in the match. I want to be able to use this system on as many matches as possible, so I need to explore trading football matches I know nothing about.
I want to find out if this is a system that can be used only on matches I know something about, or if it can be an emotionless, statistical system that can be used on nearly any match.
I’ve won and lost trading with and without knowledge. Sometimes though, knowledge is key. For example, if it was Manchester United V West Ham the Saturday before a Champions League fixture, it would be good to use the knowledge gained to know not to get involved before the teams are announced as Moyes may keep his big names on the bench, meaning a big price shift.
Moving forward, it’s something for me to ponder as I try to hone the system. I know trading Over/Under 2.5 goals a tick at a time sounds pretty basic (and it is), but trying to eliminate as many of the little things that can go wrong (as possible) is important, as some weeks this can be the difference between profit and break even, or loss.
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