Premier League Winner Betting

All the bluster of the Transfer Window is finally over, and we can now thankfully start to make our (so-called) informed decisions about who will win what, in this season’s Premier League.

From a personal perspective I like to wait until all the transfer window bullcrap is over before I decide who I think will do what, as it’s just too hard to call when you don’t know which players will be at which clubs, when the window finally shuts.

Despite all the money that changed hands, not to much has changed with regard to the Premier League winner betting odds. Chelsea and Manchester City are both 2/1, and Manchester United are 4/1, which is pretty much where they were.

Despite Arsenal signing Mesut Ozil, they are still outsiders at 12/1, and with none of the top 3 (in the betting) making a significant signing, there was no major shift in the betting.

Okay, so some might rightly argue that Marouane Fellaini is a significant signing at over £25M, but when it comes to a signing that punters believe can influence the title race, Fellaini doesn’t seem to fit that description.

Chelsea signed Willain and Samuel Eto’o, but surprisingly let Lukaku go with Demba Ba staying at the club, while Manchester City did all their main business pre season.

Basically, none of the three made a signing that made football gambling punters sit up and take notice, a signing that would really influence the football betting world.

To me Manchester United have pretty much stood still squad wise, and that is mainly why they are third favourites. They won the league last year quite convincingly, but I think seasoned watchers would say that it wasn’t with a vintage squad. That said, it is still a pretty strong squad.

For me they needed a right back, and they clearly wanted (and need) a creative midfielder, but unless they can get a top class world performer, then there’s no point in just buying for the sake of it. Can they be strong enough to win the league again? I’m not so sure, I think they are going to need City and Chelsea to under perform (again) this season.

Chelsea underwent a bit of a transformation season last year for me. Mourinho will get the balance of the team right, even if that means leaving Mata out, which all the early indications suggest he will. If Torres can recapture his top form, then Chelsea will be a force to be reckoned with.

Can they be stronger than Manchester City though? I thought that City majorly under performed last season. They basically chucked the league away that day Nasri ducked out of the way of Van Persie’s free kick in the last minute at Eastlands.

There are a few ifs buts and maybes for me, here. Can Torres perform, and can Pellegrini get Manchester City to perform to their potential? Whoever comes out on top there, will win the league in my view.

There is one other conundrum to throw into this mix here, and that is Eden Hazard. Hazard looks a top class player to me, he looks the sort of player who will one day take the Premier League by storm and win the league for Chelsea in the sort of fashion Eric Cantana and Cristiano Ronaldo did for Manchester United in the past – almost single handedly.

I’m not sure if that will happen this year for Hazard, but I’m sure he will develop into that sort of player some time over the next two to three years.

For now though, if asked to nail my colours to the mast, I’m going to go for Manchester City to win the league this year (I predicted that last year as well), and I believe the rest of the top 4 will be made up of the same four teams as last season (Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal – although not necessarily in that order).

Odds are based on the prices with Bet365, £200 in free bets are available to new customers

Pre Match Trading – Week 40 Results

29 May England v Rep of Ireland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.73
1 June Bayern Munich v Stuttgart / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.42

A week’s online football trading profit of £4.15

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £260.82. My football betting bank now stands at £360.82, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.

Another quiet week, with just the two matches traded.

I only got involved in the match between England and Republic of Ireland once. It was one of those matches of which the market was hard to read, so after one trade I just decided to leave it alone.

It was a similar case with the Champions League final between Munich and Dortmund, this time my activity was limited as I was more interested in concentrating on making the most of the regular £50 Bet365 Free Bet for existing customers.

With this in mind, I just done a couple of trades in the afternoon, and then left it alone again. I was trying to get my qualifying bet (for my free bet) on at a certain price, so I didn’t want to have any distractions going on.

I know it’s not difficult to do both, but I find at times if I’ve got two things going on at once, one can accidentally get overlooked. This can lead to cock ups which can cost money, so on this occasion an over cautious safety first approach was adopted (some might call it sensible).

I’m hoping to get involved in more matches next week with the Under 21 European Championships starting and some World Cup qualifiers to be played.

Free Bets For Existing Customers

As well as giving free bets to new customers, online bookmakers will also offer free bets to existing customers these days. This is nothing new, I have heard of this many times in the past, but from my own personal experiences it is getting more and more common.

Bet365 – Over the last year, I’ve had a £50.00 free bet for existing customers from Bet365 on average once every month to two. Bet365 usually do it when a big TV match comes around. You need to have a £50.00 bet on the match pre kick off, and then Bet365 will give you a £50.00 free bet in running. It is an easy way to make upwards of £30.00 from matched betting.

As well as the regular £50.00 free bet, Bet365 also offer new account sign ups £200.00 in free bets.

Paddy Power – I’ve had two free bet offers since the start of March, one for £25.00 on football, and one for £10.00 on horse racing – the horse racing one, just last week during the Grand National meeting at Aintree.

Paddy Power also offer regular money back specials, and there is a £30.00 in free bets for new Paddy Power customers.

I have a few quid sitting in my Paddy Power account, and I very rarely use it (as I do most of my football gambling on Betfair). So once in a while Paddy Power will offer me a free bet in an attempt to kick start me in to using their services again. Technically speaking this is a free bet for an existing customer, but it is a person specific one.

The Bet365 free bets for existing customers go a step further, as they are open to all new and all existing customers (unless your account has been limited).

It’s worth having online bookmakers accounts with Bet365 and Paddy Power just for these reasons alone, never mind the sign up offers. It’s also worth opening as many online bookmakers account as possible, for the reasons above.

As well as this, you will need a betting exchange account if you wish to make money from these free bets using the matched betting method, and there has never been a better time than now to open a Betdaq account.

Betdaq are currently on a promotional charge since they were bought out by Ladbrokes, and they are currently offering up to £200.00 in free bets, based on acquiring commission. You can open a Betdaq account here…

The return of an old foe

In fact, last weekend saw the return of two of my old foes – greed, and my penchant for what I call roulette style gambling.

Greed came in the form of my use of the £50 free bet offer from Bet365 to be used in running during the Manchester City V Manchester United game. I was a bit stumped all day what to use my free bet on, so I decided to watch the game and see if anything jumped out at me during the match, and if not, do something with it at Half Time.

With 30 minutes gone and the price of Over 2.5 goals out to 2/1, I reluctantly backed Over 2.5 goals in the hope that there would be a goal before HT – and so there was as City scored in time added on (the reason I was reluctant to back Overs was due to the fact that both sides were always going to shut up shop whenever the scoreline suited them – and so it proved).

So at this stage, I had got away with not wasting the free bet and was in a nice position to hedge my bet on Betfair and take £50 risk free money regardless of what happened. So what did I do? Well I got a bit sidetracked, missed the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half and decided then that I would wait (hope) for a second goal….. and the rest is history.

So I basically chucked away a free £50, who can afford to do that? I know I certainly can’t.

One thing that using the Over 2.5 goals at the 30 minutes mark did show me though, is that when I come to use all the free bets I have started listing down the left hand side of this page, I may well use this strategy again but in a game much more likely to produce goals.

The system would have worked on tonight’s game, had I not been greedy.

Onto my second foe, roulette style gambling. A week last Sunday I had a silly pound on the draw @ 60 in the Manchester United V Everton game when the score was 3-1, I fancied Everton to give United a run for their money, and so it proved.

I checked back about 10 minutes after I placed the bet to see it was 4-2, I started watching then and was given hope when it went 4-3, there was no point trading out at this point really as it would have been a minimal return, and after all it was only a £1 risk.

Then another Everton goal goes in and it’s now 4-4 and now I am looking to trade out. So I trade out and make around £35, happy days.

So then what happens? Well, not for the first time, I get carried away. All of a sudden it seems like a good idea to start having a silly £1 on all sorts of obscure games which I know nothing about.

Surely one will come in? If I keep going I’ll get one up and get my Man Utd V Everton winnings back? Erm, no one won’t come in.

But not content with that, I also lost the £35 I made on the cricket, and also the £25 I won backing Southampton in the AUQ market last Saturday.

To say I am pissed off with myself at the moment is an understatement.

I had two stand out bets last weekend. I really fancied Coventry to get hammered at Southampton, I was at their previous game against Doncaster and the players looked gone, they were there for the taking for Southampton. The other was a pre match trade on West Brom, they were around 2.18 (when I backed them Friday night) at home against Villa, I could only see the odds for this game going one way.

As it turned out, Southampton came in easy but the West Brom trade lost as they remarkably drifted out to around 2.26 to 2.3, unbelievable really given both teams form. I then ended up laying the draw in that match to try and recoup my pre match loss, another stupid thing to do that resulted in more losses.

My point about last weekend’s bets is that if I had just stuck to my original plan, one would have won and one lost, I won £25 on Southampton and lost £4 on the pre match West Brom trade, so I would have still been well up.

But no, I couldn’t leave it at that. So all in all after indulging in my ‘roulette’ style antics and being greedy with my Bet365 free bet, I have ended up losing out on £145 profit that I should have had. Yes the Man Utd V Everton win was a bit of a lucky bonus I suppose, but the others were not, and I have blown the lot of it so I’m not too happy with yours truly at the moment.

Pompey betting opportunity missed

When Portsmouth sold Peter Crouch to Tottenham at the end of July, I remember thinking that the rate Pompey are selling players that they were a good chance to get relegated.

I checked the odds at the time and noticed that you could still get 4/1 with some online bookmakers on Pompey going down and thought this was good value.

Regrettably I didn’t follow my instincts and now am still kicking myself for it. After their 2-0 victory over Burnley on Saturday I checked Pompey’s price on Betfair to find that they could be layed at 1.73.

All this means I could of had, say £100 on them at 4/1 with Bet365 (there is a £200 Bet365 Free Bet available to customers opening a new account) when I fancied them and then layed the bet off for £73 last Saturday leaving me with a free bet that could of possibly netted £327. It was a great football trading opportunity missed.

Never mind, I did back West Ham for relegation at 19.5 and they can currently be layed at 6 so at least I got one thing right in the summer heat.

Come on Franco, keep up the good work!

For season long bets (as any of these could have ended up being) I would cash in some free bets so that I can keep my betting bank free for my weekly football trading. These free bets can also be used for matched betting purposes.