Using Statistics To Gain An Edge

The use of statistics is a major tool in the armoury of a punter when it comes to betting on football.

For example, in the Premier League one of the most popular betting markets is Over/Under 2.5 Goals. This market is a statisticians dream. You can easily pull up all of the stats on Premier League teams, and you can plan your bets accordingly.

This means no betting on a hunch, you can accurately plan the teams whose matches are likely to have goals in them, or a likely to be drab affairs.

Obviously the bookmakers will also have access to these stats, but you will always get a match between two teams where the stats contradict, for example one team averages Under 2.5 Goals a match, and the other team averages Over 2.5 Goals a match, and that can be an area where you can find an edge.

In order to do this you will need to delve deeper into the statistics. You will need to look at the team who averages Over 2.5 Goals, and see where the majority of those goals were scored. For example, they might have won matches 4 or 5-0 against struggling teams, and had a few 0-0’s away from home against mid table teams.

Betfair £100 Bet Bundle
New customer offer. Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. T&Cs apply. For full terms and conditions, please see the Betfair website for further details

Likewise with the team who average Under 2.5 Goals. Have they played out a good few 0-0’s and 1-0’s against similar teams, but taken a few beatings away from home against higher placed teams? It could be that matches at that teams home ground are tight affairs without many goals, but they are poor on the road and concede a lot.

The statistics will tell you all this, and if you are prepared to put the research in, you can give yourself an edge and have a better chance of being successful.

The bookmakers base their odds on statistics, rather than hunches, so football punters have to be prepared to do the same. When Betfair are compiling their odds for the weekend matches in the Premier League, the guy or girl setting the odds doesn’t price them up on his/her gut feeling, it is based mainly on statistics, and also a bit on form.

Form is another area that can be used by punters to cash in. Not wishing to contradict myself (after saying odds aren’t set on a hunch), but if we have been following a team and know that they haven’t been performing, we can add this knowledge to the statistics and see if it gives us more of an edge.

The bookies will base their odds more on statistics than form, taking the two and combining it can give us punters the edge, so that’s why we have got to be prepared to get our heads down and do the hard work.

100/1 Enhanced Odds Champions League Acca From Betfair

Tuesday night sees the return of the Champions League, and Betfair are offering new customers a massive enhanced odds acca on the (so called) Big 4 teams still left in the competition.

TUESDAY NEW CUSTOMER OFFERS

100/1 Enhanced Odds Acca On Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Man City to all win their respective matches – New Betfair Customers
New Customers can get Barcelona, Bayern, Real & Man City at an enhanced 100/1 all to win. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets. Full T&Cs Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware

Betfair New Customers Offer

Starting on Tuesday night, and it’s the turn of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, who are both away at Juventus and Sevilla respectively. Moving onto Wednesday night, and it’s the turn of Barcelona and Manchester City. Barca’s first leg is at home to Roma, while Man City travel the short distance to Anfield, to face Liverpool in a domestic battle.

In Champions League Betting, Barcelona are the new outright winner favourites at 5/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power, having taken over from Man City after the quarter-final draw.

As well as the 4 Champions League matches across Tuesday and Wednesday, there is also a further 4 Europa League matches on Thursday night, with Arsenal and Atletico Madrid amongst the teams in action.

With the 8 matches across the 3 nights, if you’re having an accumulator bet, don’t forget to make sure you have acca insurance included. This ensures that at least if your acca misses by one, you will get a free bet, rather than just lose.

Everton V Man City New Customer Offers

Manchester City can move within 3 points of the Premier League title if they beat Everton in Saturday evening’s live TV fixture, and we have a couple of enhanced odds offers for new customers, if you think they will beat the Toffees.

25/1 Man City to beat Everton – New Betfair Customers
New Customers can get Man City at an enhanced 25/1 to beat Everton. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets. Full T&Cs Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware

Betfair New Customers Offer

20/1 Man City to beat Everton – New Paddy Power Customers
Copy if creative is included: New Customers can get Man City at an enhanced 20/1 to beat Everton. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets. Full T&Cs Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware

Paddy Power New Customers

If City can win, they will be able to seal the title when they take on rivals Manchester United, next Saturday (7th April). It goes without saying that this will act as a motivation for the City players, who will want to take the opportunity to rub Jose’s nose in it, after he caused a major storm in the aftermath of the Citizen’s 2-1 win at Old Trafford earlier in the season.

The match is being played at Everton’s Goodison Park Stadium, with kick off at 5.30pm. The match is live on BT Sports, with TV coverage starting at 5pm.

Goodison Park Picture
Goodison Park

In 90 minutes betting, Pep’s Manchester City side are just 4/11 to complete another victory. The draw is 4/1, with an Everton win at 17/2. Sergio Aguero is favourite in First Goalscorer Betting, the Argentine is 11/4 with William Hill.