For my Bundesliga tip this Saturday (31/10/20), I'm going to focus on Arminia Bielefeld V Borussia Dortmund for my prediction.
Bielefeld have made a reasonable start to life back in the top flight, while Dortmund are currently trying to juggle their commitments to both the Champions League and Bundesliga.
Arminia Bielefeld V Borussia Dortmund Tips
With the exception of a 4-1 defeat to Bayern Munich, Bielefeld have held their own so far in their first season back in the Bundesliga since 2009.
Going in their favour as well is the fact that Dortmund can't afford to take any chances in the Champions League this Wednesday, when they travel to Belgium to take on Club Brugge.
With Dortmund already having lost 1 of their 2 Champions League matches, they can't really afford to take any chances on Wednesday. This might result in a bit of squad rotation in the Bundesliga.
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Arminia Bielefeld V Borussia Dortmund Odds
Taking all of this into consideration, and odds of 4/11 on Dortmund are way to short to take.
Will Dortmund have one eye on the Champions League?
If Dortmund are fully focused on this one, then it should be a walk in the park. This is probably where the 4/11 price is coming from.
Even with one eye on the Champions League though, Dortmund should be too strong here.
Erling Haaland is one of the form strikers in Europe. And even if he doesn't start this match, he will no doubt come off the bench if required.
And while Dortmund haven't got the same level of resources as their elite rivals Bayern Munich, they can still rotate the squad and bring in quality players like Thomas Delaney and Thorgan Hazard, both of whom didn't start the midweek Champions League win over Zenit Saint Petersburg.
Arminia Bielefeld V Borussia Dortmund Prediction - 31/10/20
The Yellow and Blacks need 3 points on Saturday to keep pace with the teams at the top of the Bundesliga.
With that in mind, they will have to put out a reasonably strong starting eleven.
Such a side should be way too good for Arminia, and I can see Dortmund running out 2-0 winners. Or a scoreline along those lines.
Odds of 11/10 on the Handicap look good value, and I think it's worth the risk. One note of caution, maybe wait and see what starting XI Dortmund put out on the day.