Fulham host Cardiff in the 2nd leg of the Championship Play-Off semi-finals tonight, and as the Cottagers don't need to win, I'm going to focus the attention of my betting tips on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.
I see Fulham as the superior team, and odds of 21/20 on Scott Parker's team to win does look appealing. The problem for me is that Fulham don't need to chase the game.
Fulham are also a team with plenty of discipline. Meaning they won't recklessly chase a match they don't actually need to win.
This for me is one of those either/or matches. Form tells me it's going to be Under 2.5 Goals, but my head is saying that Cardiff need goals, and especially in the last 20 minutes, will have to throw caution to the wind.
Looking at the form, and Fulham matches don't involve too many goals, and they certainly don't concede many.
In the ten matches Fulham have played since the resumption, seven have been Under 2.5 Goals, and three have been Over 2.5 Goals.
Of the three matches with Over 2.5 Goals, one was a 3-0 defeat to Leeds, which can happen to anyone. One was a 2-1 win away at QPR, and the other match was the crazy 5-3 home win over Sheffield Wednesday.
Only Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday have scored more than 1 goal in a match against Fulham since the resumption.
This shows Fulham are a well organised, tactically astute team. They were also 8 points better than Cardiff in the Championship across the course of the season.
The only slight doubt I have is as I've already alluded too. Will Cardiff throwing caution to the wind late on result in a late flurry of goals?
And as we seen in last year's second leg between Leeds and Derby (2-4), these games can sometimes explode into life.
The last sentence can apply to just about any match though, and if I followed that philosophy I would probably never bet on football. So with this in mind, I'm going to follow the form.