Man City play Arsenal in their game in hand on their Champions League rivals today, and we are expecting to see plenty of goals, and a home win at the Etihad Stadium.
Yes, after 100 days away, the Premier League finally returns later, with Aston Villa hosting Sheffield United at Villa Park (6pm kick-off), and Manchester City taking on Arsenal, at the Etihad (8.15pm kick-off).
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Man City V Arsenal – Goals are to be Expected
I’m staying away from Aston Villa against Sheffield United in the first match. I’d prefer to see how they both restart the campaign, and nothing jumps out at me. So for today’s tip, I’m focusing on Man City V Arsenal.
It doesn’t take a tipping genius to predict goals at the Etihad, it’s a matter of selecting the correct bet.
City’s home matches this season average 3.46 goals a game, ironically less than their away matches (3.60).
Although Mikel Arteta has tightened things up at Arsenal, they still look to play football, and I can’t see that changing tonight. Can we really see one of Pep’s disciples turning up at the Etihad and parking the bus? No, I can’t really either.
And with the likes of Sergio Aguero and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on show, it’s hard to see anything other than goals.
So where do we look for the value? Well, over 3.5 goals tonight is Even money, while Manchester City to win on the Handicap at -1 is 5/6. I can see both of those coming in, but with the overs at Even money, I’m going with over 3.5 goals as my tip.
Today’s Premier League Tip
Pep Guardiola has Leroy Sane and Aymeric Laporte available for selection again. So even if one or neither start, I would expect to see them get a run out at some stage later.
Getting these two players back with 10 games remaining is a bonus for Guardiola. Without the enforced break, he may well have only had them for a handful of matches at the back end of the season.
City are in a strange situation really, they almost have little to play for. There is no real chance of catching Liverpool, and they are miles ahead of 5th placed Manchester United. As it stands, City are banned from next season’s Champions League, but for now, we’ll assume that they may get a reprieve.
Okay, so they still need around 15 points to ensure a Top 4 finish, but could staying motivated be a problem for the Citizens?
Arsenal on the other hand are the big outsiders in the race for a Top 4 finish, in the latest football betting they are 17/1 to land one of the coveted places. They also have a fight on their hands to get into the Europa League.
The Gunners have a free hit tonight. No one expects them to win, so they can play their natural game and see where it takes them. There is also the added bonus of no away crowd to deal with.
The match kicks off at 8.15pm, and is live on Sky Sports.