Even given Burnley’s recent improvement it’s hard to see anything other than a convincing 3 points for City at the Etihad this weekend as the Premier League returns.
This looks like one of those matches that resembles Roger Federer playing the world no 250 in the first round at Wimbledon. Where he just has to turn and go through the motions to win, with the bigger fish to fry coming further down the track.
City are as short as 1/20 with some bookies to win in 90 minutes betting. You can get 1/10 with Unibet, but on the whole they are unbackable. They are only 1/3 in the half time/full time market!
The draw is a best price of 14/1 with Betfred, who also have a Burnley win at 40/1, they are a mere 33/1 with most of the other layers.
So where is the value in this match? It is hard to find, but I have been scratching around and have come up with a couple of options.
First up is the Match Result and Over 3.5 Goals market, where City are 4/5 with Betfair. And the second one is in the handicap market, with City at 8/11 to win, starting at -2. I’m a bit torn between the two bets, so I have decided to tip both of them.
As I eluded too above, it’s not if City win that we’re betting on here, it’s by how much are they going to win by. My only concern this week, and it applies to Liverpool away at Huddersfield, is how the players come back from the international break.
City and Liverpool both have players from South America and Africa, and particularly for the South Americans, there is a hell of a lot of travelling involved (albeit in first class).
Sometimes the players can look jaded, and these first games back can sometimes be turgid affairs, especially in the Saturday lunch time fixture. Luckily, our match isn’t at this time. So I’m hopeful it will be normal service for City.
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