The use of statistics is a major tool in the armoury of a punter when it comes to betting on football.
For example, in the Premier League one of the most popular betting markets is Over/Under 2.5 Goals. This market is a statisticians dream. You can easily pull up all of the stats on Premier League teams, and you can plan your bets accordingly.
This means no betting on a hunch, you can accurately plan the teams whose matches are likely to have goals in them, or a likely to be drab affairs.
Obviously the bookmakers will also have access to these stats, but you will always get a match between two teams where the stats contradict, for example one team averages Under 2.5 Goals a match, and the other team averages Over 2.5 Goals a match, and that can be an area where you can find an edge.
In order to do this you will need to delve deeper into the statistics. You will need to look at the team who averages Over 2.5 Goals, and see where the majority of those goals were scored. For example, they might have won matches 4 or 5-0 against struggling teams, and had a few 0-0’s away from home against mid table teams.
Likewise with the team who average Under 2.5 Goals. Have they played out a good few 0-0’s and 1-0’s against similar teams, but taken a few beatings away from home against higher placed teams? It could be that matches at that teams home ground are tight affairs without many goals, but they are poor on the road and concede a lot.
The statistics will tell you all this, and if you are prepared to put the research in, you can give yourself an edge and have a better chance of being successful.
The bookmakers base their odds on statistics, rather than hunches, so football punters have to be prepared to do the same. When Betfair are compiling their odds for the weekend matches in the Premier League, the guy or girl setting the odds doesn’t price them up on his/her gut feeling, it is based mainly on statistics, and also a bit on form.
Form is another area that can be used by punters to cash in. Not wishing to contradict myself (after saying odds aren’t set on a hunch), but if we have been following a team and know that they haven’t been performing, we can add this knowledge to the statistics and see if it gives us more of an edge.
The bookies will base their odds more on statistics than form, taking the two and combining it can give us punters the edge, so that’s why we have got to be prepared to get our heads down and do the hard work.