With the sacking of Paul Lambert from Aston Villa yesterday, we now have two active next manager markets, a possible third with Leicester, and a long term next Newcastle manager market, likely to become hectic in the post season.
Over the years I have heard bookmakers moaning about how these markets are too unpredictable, and they don’t like them. They cite the Howard Wilkinson to Sunderland 66/1 bet a few years back as a bad day for the poor bookies on these ghastly markets.
The Howard Wilkinson bet was was hardly a major sting. Yes, it may have cost a few grand, but it was hardly a 6/4 favourite ridden by AP McCoy winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup scenario.
So far since Harry Redknapp left QPR a few days back, we have seen Tim Sherwood and Michael Laudrup get backed in to odds on favourites for the vacant QPR manager’s job. We now see Tim Sherwood is odds on favourite to be the next Villa manager.
The same Tim Sherwood was also recently backed in to heavy odds on favourite for the West Brom manager’s job at the start of the season, before Alan Irvine got the gig.
Chris Ramsey is now odds on favourite for QPR, but could anybody really confidently predict he will be the next QPR manager?
As well the next manager markers, Nigel Pearson was heavy odds on favourite in the ‘next manager to leave his post’ betting market, which paid out on Paul Lambert last night. Imagine how much money at ridiculously low odds the bookies must have taken on Pearson over the last few days? He has looked like a dead man walking.
These markets look more like a cash cow to me, never mind moaning about Howard Wilkinson all those years back, the bookies must make fortunes from them now. They probably recouped the Wilkinson money in one day alone recently, never mind the subsequent years between.
I have seen a couple of punters on Twitter who just say lay, lay, lay these next manager markets (on Betfair‘s Betting Exchange), and I’m beginning to think they are right.
I’ve had my finger’s burnt in the past, and I’m sure adopting the lay, lay, lay policy, I would again. But I am of the opinion if I just placed lay bets on odds on favourites to level stakes (ie, £50.00 a time, per candidate), that in the long run I would be way up.
There are occasions when a candidate is identified early, and he just steadily gets backed in and gets the job. Usually you can spot them at a fairly early stage though. When you get situations like the recent Newcastle market, and the current QPR one though – where no one really knows what’s happening, you can just keep on laying.
If you originally layed Tim Sherwood in the QPR manager market, once Michael Laudrup came into odds on, you would be well in profit by now. And there could be countless more favourites yet, with an owner who like chucking grenades into the Twittersphere.
Cricket World Cup Betting
Slightly off the beaten track here, but the cricket world cup in Australia and New Zealand starts tomorrow, and 888Sport have a treble odds offer on Moeen Ali to be Top England Batsman, they have trebled his odds from 4/1 to 12/1 for new customers. This offer is only available up until the start of the tournament, which starts at 10pm on Friday 13th February (UK time).
England go into the tournament with up and down form, having thrashed the hapless West Indies at the start of the week, before losing to Pakistan in their final warm up match yesterday. This comes on the back of beating India twice in the recent tri-series, but getting routinely beat by Australia. Our friends over at CricketBettingBlog have more cricket world cup betting offers, and stacks of help and information about betting on the cricket world cup.