Small wins and one big loss meant week 38 of my pre match trading results seen a profit of £2.09, this was from 6 matches traded.
Pre Match Trading Results – Week 38
13 May Brighton v C Palace / Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Won 94p
13 May Sociedad v Granada / Over/Under 3.5 Goals - Won £1.00
15 May Benfica v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Won £4.78
15 May Palmeiras v Tijuana / Over/Under 2.5 Goals - LOST £8.06
19 May Tottenham v Sunderland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Won 96p
19 May Newcastle v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Won £2.47
A week’s online football trading profit of £2.09
Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £252.55. My football betting bank now stands at £352.55, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.
When trading football on Betfair, it only takes one dodgy trade to ruin a weeks figures. And that is exactly what happened this week.
The game in question I knew nothing about. I tried to trade a gap in the market, and it backfired.
It appear that the market was simply misaligned. My lay of Under 2.5 goals got matched (my back bet didn't), and the price then continued to get backed in.
I placed my back and lay bets one tick above and below the market price. With the gap already in the market, I assumed that left me a lot of leverage (if the price was wrong or moved).
Clearly now there wasn't enough leverage, as the price must have wrong.
Was This The Wrong Match To Trade?
I'm not sure if it was wrong to get involved in the match. I want to be able to use this system on as many matches as possible. So I need to explore trading football matches I know nothing about.
I want to find out if this is a system that I can use on matches I know nothing about. Or if it can be an emotionless, statistical system that can be used on nearly any match.
I've won and lost trading with and without knowledge. Sometimes though, knowledge is key.
I know trading Over/Under 2.5 goals a tick at a time sounds pretty basic (and it is). But trying to eliminate as many of the little things that can go wrong (as possible) is important, as some weeks this can be the difference between profit and break even, or loss.