Pre Match Trading – Week 32 Results
1 April Chelsea v Man Utd / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 93p
1 April Leeds v Derby / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.85
2 April Paris St-G v Barcelona / Over/Under 1.5 Goals – Won £2.46
2 April B Munich v Juventus / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 32p
3 April Malaga v Dortmund / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 94p
4 April Tottenham v Basel / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.41
4 April Chelsea v Rubin Kazan / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £12.97
6 April Reading v Southampton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.31
6 April Norwich v Swansea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.33
6 April West Brom v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goal – Won 89p
6 April Watford v Cardiff / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.65
7 April Tottenham v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.05
7 April Liverpool v West Ham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.66
7 April QPR v Wigan / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.47
7 April Valencia v Valladolid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 67p
A week’s online football trading profit of £13.97
Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £176.23. My football betting bank now stands at £276.23, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.
Back to old ways, plenty of wins and one biggish loss. I say biggish, as there has been some fairly bigger ones over the past few weeks.
After the loss on the Chelsea match – which was stupid and should have been avoided – I got stuck in to the trading in an attempt to win it back. I don’t mean that I chased, I just got a lot more active than I had been. Amazingly it worked as I went on a runs of wins that put me nicely back in profit.
I also traded other sports last weekend and cashed in £10 in FREEbets I got offered over the Grand National meeting at Aintree. As well as the horse racing I got involved in some cricket betting on the IPL and I also traded some rugby union in the Heineken Cup.
I’m finding betting on other sports quite enjoyable at the moment. When I win, the wins are more profitable than the football trading, but the risks are bigger I suppose.
That’s why I am sticking to the plan with the football trading. This offers me a more sedate pace to work at. I believe steady growth is the way forward, not a couple of decent sized wins followed by a disastrous loss.
Going back to the Chelsea loss and the reason why I know it could have been avoided is because I was trading it in the morning before I went to work, and I could kind of see where the price was heading long before I was due to leave the house.
I’m very reluctant to leave a bet on when I’m away from my PC for a few hours as I don’t have any chance to react to big price shifts (not that I always react when I am at my PC, but that’s another story).
When I left that morning I could have traded out for a £1.00 (approximately) loss. I only needed a one tick movement to be in profit, and my bet had already been nibbled at so I knew my money was first in the queue.
The reason why I claim to know where the price was heading was because the big money was starting to come in, and it was looking to lay Over 2.5 goals (I had been trading over night, and was green by morning, but I then re-entered the market hoping for a couple more quid profit).
I believe this was because the market knew that Benitez would be picking Torres and co, basically the bulk of the side that lost to Southampton. As a result of this, the market wasn’t expecting goals.
I was of the opinion that this view contradicts Chelsea in the Europa league, as most of their games have had a lot of goals in them. Anyway, as I’ve said on here before, when you are looking to trade price movements, you need to try and read what the market thinks will happen, not what I think will happen in the game.
I can call the match right, but I’m trading pre match, so I have to be out of the trade before the game kicks off. If I base my bets on what I believe will happen in the match, and I’m going against the belief of the market, I’m never going to be in a position to trade out pre match for a profit.
The trick to this trading is reading how the market is behaving, not placing my bets based on what I think will happen in the match…..
Quite often when I leave a bet up, it’s usually because I’ve a fair idea it will be matched by the time I check back. And generally it has been matched.
If I’m being honest I wasn’t confident that this bet would be matched when I checked that evening, and it wasn’t. This makes the loss all the more stupid, as I actually had a fair idea of what was going to happen, and still fell into the trap.