Pre Match Trading – Week 31 Results
26 March Montenegro v England / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.41
26 March Chile v Uruguay / Match Odds – Won £4.10
27 March Venezuela v Colombia / Match Odds – £2.72
30 March Southampton v Chelsea / Match Odds – LOST £34.98
30 March Everton v Stoke / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.83
31 March Aston Villa v Liverpool / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 56p
31 March Mallorca v Deportivo / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.91
31 March Espanyol v Sociedad / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.58
A week’s online football trading loss of £19.87
Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £162.26. My football betting bank now stands at £262.26, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre kick off using Betfair.
One obvious disaster with the Southampton V Chelsea match. I put my bets up on the Wednesday night and my lay was matched by the time I got up on Thursday.
By this stage the price had already moved the wrong way for me, all this meant my money was tied up in the trade until Saturday, meaning I missed out on trading opportunities on Friday.
I could have traded out there and then (Thursday morning) for a couple of quid loss, but I was of the opinion that the Chelsea price would come back in.
I got the feeling on Thursday that the market felt that – with two games to come in three days – Chelsea might put out a weakened team (on the Saturday), which (in hindsight) is the point I should have exited the trade. I assumed that the market was wrong and that Chelsea would prioritise the league, but Rafa being Rafa, decided differently.
Even then, I still expected the Chelsea price to come in. I assumed that the reason why the price was long (in the first place) was because the team was already widely suspected to be weak. When the team was finally announced on Saturday afternoon, the price drifted again, showing that it hadn’t already been totally factored in to the price.
Overall the price just kept drifting. It got to the point in the end where there was nothing really I could do, I was doomed with the bet and I just had to accept it. It’s not often we see a side like Chelsea trading at around 2.20 away at Southampton. Even taking the result out of the equation, I still expected a Chelsea weakened team to get backed in, not to keep drifting out, which it did – eventually to 2.40 and beyond.
Maybe I don’t know as much about football as I think I do. In analysing the bet, I suppose there had to be an element of doubt about the Chelsea side with the two games in three days coming up. If there is an element of doubt, the plan is not to get involved. So this has to go down as a bad mistake on my part.
Sometimes I can accept a trade can be hit by some bad luck, but not on this occasion. This was just a hopeless trade and I have to take the blame.
I did do a bit of trading in match to try and reduce the loss, but it was based on Chelsea coming from behind and winning. So in the end, it cost me more money. This just goes to show how a bad choice can have a knock on effect (if you are not disciplined enough, which I’m not).
It’s something I’m getting pretty sick off now. I am wondering if it is worth it, yes, I am still in profit (overall with pre match trading), but it is very, very slow progress and incredibly frustrating. I had far more success betting on the Cricket and Rugby Union recently, so I am wondering if I would be better suited to betting on other sports?
To bet on sports in general is something I have done a lot of in the past. Over the years I have gambled on Golf, Tennis, Snooker, Darts, Rugby, Cricket etc, but I decided football betting was going to be my main gambling route.
I’m probably just sounding off as I am a bit frustrated with things. If I hadn’t had success on the cricket and rugby union, I would probably be a lot more annoyed than I was on Saturday.
Anyway, I was bit naughty after recording my Chelsea loss as I had a few £2.00 bets in running on the Saturday afternoon matches (I don’t usually do this any more).
I got lucky with my £2.00 lay of Under 3.5 goals in the Forest V Brighton match at half time (it finished 2-2 with three very late goals). I got matched at 1.05, so at least I got £38.00 back, which was a nice bonus. I think all in all on Saturday, I lost about £15.00 – £20.00.