Pre Match Trading – Week 25 Results

12 February Celtic v Juventus / Match Odds – Won £4.07
13 February Real Madrid v Man Utd / Match Odds – LOST £16.31
14 February Tottenham v Lyon / Match Odds – Won 52p
15 February AC Milan v Parma / Match Odds – Won £3.54
16 February Luton v Millwall / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 90p
16 February Luton v Millwall / Match Odds – Won £4.71
16 February Oldham v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST 95p
16 February Granada v Barcelona / Match Odds – Won £2.18
17 February Sociedad v Levante / Match Odds – Won £1.15
17 February Sociedad v Levante / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.21
17 February Chelsea v Brentford / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £1.75
17 February Man City v Leeds / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won £1.31
17 February Huddersfield v Wigan / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £3.95
17 February Valladolid v Atl Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.14
17 February Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.87

A week’s online football trading profit of £3.14

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £181.77. My betting bank now stands at £281.77 I started off the experiment with a football betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

I’m not going to go into detail about where things went wrong, it has been written every week for the about the last 4 weeks now. Anyone who follows these results will know the theme by now, the words ‘deja vu’ spring to mind.

What I will say is that I traded 15 different markets just to make £3.14. Turn the one big loss into a loss consistent with the other trades/losses and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to do the maths. The other largish loss (Huddersfield V Wigan) was conducted on my phone from a children’s playground, another ‘no no’ in my list of things not to do.

My problems are clearly of a discipline nature. I will have weeks where trades will naturally go wrong, it’s the law of averages and I accept that. This is why it is imperative that I sort my discipline out. It’s been two steps forward, one and three quarters back so far this year, and things need to change.

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2 Responses

  1. James says:

    “Trading from the playground” – I’ve done that. Phone trading although convenient, just isn’t a good thing to do.

    Something I’m about to look at (I’ve decided I will never be able to be displinned enough to not make a mess of live trading) is simply arbing, across the bookies, ala matched betting.

    Do the lay at current odds, odds that are one click less than a bookmaker (use oddschecker to find them) then do the back bet at the bookie. To try and avoid losses I’m aiming for markets with tight odds and lots of liquidity and where more than one bookie has the same back odds.

    I’m hoping for small, but more certain profits.


  2. Hi James, have your tried it out yet?

    I’m sure it probably would work and it’s something I’ve thought about doing. The thing that puts me off is that I can imagine it is a very slow process, this pre match trading is slow progress, but I think arbing would be even slower. Not convinced I would have enough discipline on that one to be honest.

    I’ve wrote it on here loads of times, it’s finding what suits your style of gambling that’s the key thing (in my view). ie, ‘lay the draw’ didn’t suit me as I had no discipline when it came to trading out at 0-0, so I never use that system. Although it’s far from perfect, and my discipline does cost me at times, I see pre kick off trading as the system that best suits my style of gambling.

    If arbing works for you, stick with it. It sounds like you’ve done your homework. To be honest, I’ve thought for a long time that I don’t have the discipline either, but the pre kick off stuff has shown me that my discipline is not that bad after all. Maybe a period of arbing might teach you discipline, if nothing else?

    Let me know how it’s going.


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