Pre Match Trading – Week 23 Results

2nd February QPR v Norwich / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £7.53
2nd February Newcastle v Chelsea / Match Odds – Won £3.48
2nd February Newcastle v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £3.05
2nd February Espanyol v Levante / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.69
2nd February Granada v Real Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.75
3rd February Malaga v Zaragoza / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.61
3rd February West Brom v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.32
3rd February Man City v Liverpool / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.00
3rd February Valencia v Barcelona / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 96p
3rd February Atl Madrid v Betis / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.06

A week’s online football trading profit of £8.29

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £164.31. My betting bank now stands at £264.31 I started off the experiment with a football betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

At the end of December I had £255.01 in my account, and at the end of last week’s trading I had £256.02 in my account, so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that January was a bad month trading wise.

At the start of this week’s trading I wasn’t aware of that statistic, but I was aware that January hadn’t been a great month and so was looking to get February off to a good start.

It all started off ok as I began trading QPR V Norwich on Friday night, I did my usual thing and put a back and a lay up and went to bed and slept on it, and in the morning both had been matched and I was green to £1.00 on both sides of the trade.

There was still some gaps in the market, so I carried on trading on Saturday morning, then at around 9.00am the market suddenly jumped about 8 or 9 ticks, and as usual of late, I was on the wrong side of the trade at that precise moment.

I immediately assumed that this must have meant that Loic Remy had failed a fitness test (I heard he was doubtful on Friday), as I couldn’t see any other player’s absence moving the market that significantly. I’ve come to accept that this is one of those occupational hazards with regard to this method of trading, at times I am trading against people who know more than I do, and I just have to accept it.

Anyway, no official word was out, and the market continued to tick over. I then traded away working on my loss and I managed to get myself down to £2.49 red on both sides of the trade by about 11.30am. At this point I thought, I’ll take that and move onto another match to trade.

Looking back and analysing what I’ve done so far, and I have to say I don’t believe I’ve done much wrong. I don’t know what time Remy is having a fitness test at, and there is only so much risk I can pre-empt. Also the teams haven’t been officially announced yet, and I’m out of the trade just before the time the teams will be becoming common knowledge. I also only have a moderate loss (about 1% of bank), so just move on and win it back on the next match or two (remember, it’s a long term plan).

As I have wrote above, I don’t think at this stage I’ve done much wrong. But then I decide to go back in to the market, it’s behaving in a manner that suggests to me that Over 2.5 Goals will come back in a couple of ticks, and then I can (hopefully) green up.

Problem was, it didn’t. It then done another about turn and headed back out again, leaving me stranded for the second time with kick off fast approaching.

I can’t decide if I was right or wrong to go back in, the market did deceive me, but following the logic I did has won me money plenty of times in the past.

Where I do feel I got things wrong, is that sometimes a trade just isn’t happening, it doesn’t feel right, so in these instances I should just accept a loss and get out and move on… and this trade had all those hallmarks. I had been unlucky with it, had done things by the book (so to speak) and was still down. Maybe in these instances, I need to be more disciplined and accept my loss and move on?

This could also be psychological, as at this stage I’m effectively in chasing mode. So as a result of this, am I making irrational decisions?

Whether it be gambling or trading, the same hard and fast rules apply. I still have to be rational, and I still have to follow the usual disciplines and rules.

These are some of the issues I need to iron out and take a decision on. I can’t just ditch a trade every time because the first price movement works against me, I also can’t keep letting myself lose 3,4 5% on one trade. The conundrum is just when to dump a trade and get out (beyond the obvious reasons), and that is something I’m going to have to solve.

Compared to the two trades last week that cost me so much, I don’t think this one is anywhere near as bad, although at the time, it sure felt it.

Considering I lost on the Newcastle V Chelsea (Over/Under 2.5 Goals) game straight away after, I am amazed that I still managed to turn the weekend in to a profit. Looking at the positives, that is good considering my confidence was fairly shot at this point.

I did profit on the outright market on the Newcastle V Chelsea match, and this has got me thinking about maybe looking towards this market a bit more.

I think this could be a slower moving market and could be traded over and over for a couple of days prior to kick off. Like in this instance, Chelsea were never going to drift much beyond the 2.04 I backed them at, so I just kept backing them at 2.04 and got lays matched at 2.02 to make a profit on this game.

I’m going to look into this more next week. I may find a game where I think a team is at their price limit and get involved in the market at that point, and see how it goes.

Anyway, although January wasn’t a great month, it wasn’t a losing month. And although I suppose that is crap from a profits perspective, it is a hell of an improvement for me compared to previous days. Eight months to a year back, a bad month for me would have involved losing a good bit of money, so I’ll take break even months as bad ones any day.

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