Pre Match Trading – Week 22 Results
21st January Southampton v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.03
22nd January Aston Villa v Bradford / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 70p
23rd January Swansea v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.54
26th January Stoke v Man City / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.29
26th January Bolton v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £13.89
26th January Man Utd v Fulham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.42
26th January Zaragoza v Espanyol / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.86
26th January Deportivo v Valencia / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.33
27th January Real Madrid v Getafe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 54p
27th January Brentford v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 70p
27th January Leeds v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Won – £1.06
27th January Oldham v Liverpool / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £11.08
27th January Barcelona v Osasuna / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – Won 68p
27th January Mallorca V Malaga / Over/Under 2.5 Goals LOST – £1.56
A week’s online football trading LOSS of £9.38
Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £156.02. My betting bank now stands at £256.02, I started off the experiment with a football betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.
Three losing trades this week, and two fairly significant and avoidable ones. One big loss like this can wreck a week’s work, two is a disaster for it. And it is all the more annoying when you work hard to repair the damage done after the first stupid loss, only to undue all the good work by making the same cock up just after you get back in front again.
With regard to the Bolton V Everton loss, the worst part about it is that I was green (around £1), and instead of trading out and moving on (like I was doing last week when I won), I ended up slipping back into the old habit of getting greedy and re-entering the market to try and extract a couple of more quid profit out of the trade.
This is not such a bad tactic when there is a few hours to spare before kick off, but in this instance there was only just over an hour to kick off. The cardinal sin I committed here was to get involved (again) at a time when I should have been looking to get out of the trade.
In basic terms, I try and be out of the trade before the teams are announced as this can lead to massive market shifts and leave you in a big hole if you are in the middle of a trade and the market swing works against you. So for this reason if I am green with about an hour to kick off, I get out and stay out until the teams have been announced and the market has re-settled, or I just get out and move on to another match.
In this instance I was still involved trying to chase a small loss when the teams were announced, this small loss then turned quite significant as the market kept on running away from me. I sat back and hoped the market would come back a bit, but it didn’t, it just kept moving in the wrong direction.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, all gamblers/traders know this, but in hindsight I should have obviously got out for an average loss and watched the market to see if any opportunities arose to recoup some red.
This is a long term strategy, it is ok to take a small loss on some matches as I know I can get it back on another game, but sometimes I seem to be forgetting this and trying to make sure I am green on every match, which is stupid really (and very unlikely).
Anyway, after that stupid loss I managed to fight back and get myself back in front again, marvellous, a pat on the back for me. So what did I then go and do on Sunday afternoon…………. the same f—ing thing again on the Oldham V Liverpool match.
I’m not going to go into detail about it, as it is still pissing me off a full week later (that’s why this post is late).
This is starting to worry me a bit now, as not learning and carrying on making the same stupid mistakes is reminiscent of the bad old days of mug punting (wait for next week’s post, oh yes, there’s another one).
That is a place I don’t want to go back too, and I have to say these trades have again knocked my confidence, especially coming so soon on the back of the loss in early January.