Pre Match Trading – Week 19 Results

1st January West Brom v Fulham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.13
1st January Swansea v Aston Villa / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £9.71
1st January Swansea v Aston Villa / Match Odds – Won £1.16
1st January Southampton v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £2.59
2nd January Newcastle v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £3.41
2nd January Chelsea v QPR / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.02
2nd January Chelsea v QPR / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £1.41
6th January Mansfield v Liverpool / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 59p
6th January Celta Vigo v Valladolid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.77
6th January Udinese v Inter / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 86p
6th January Barcelona v Espanyol / Over/Under 3.5 Goals – LOST £4.00
6th January Napoli v Roma / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – LOST £5.28

A week’s football online trading loss of £15.69

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £139.32. My football betting bank now stands at £239.32, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

It had to happen one week, and unfortunately when it, it did so in spectacular style.

Yes, it was my first losing week! Obviously I’m going to be annoyed at losing, but the thing that really peed me off the most, was my reaction to losing.

It all started to go wrong with the Swansea V Aston Villa game. After that loss, my mind seemed to go AWOL and I lost track of my long term objective. I stopped thinking about the bigger picture and just got annoyed and went hell bent on winning back my loss, I was trading any match without even thinking about it.

I do believe I got away with it though, although it was more by luck than judgement. I had 6 losing trades over the week, but I only lost a week or two’s profit overall, so it wasn’t the worst outcome. Put it another way, I can remember doing a lot more damage to my betting bank in the past.

For the first time (I can recall) since I started doing this though, I got really frustrated and my football trading became reckless. I think it was the manner of the loss in the match that triggered the bad reaction.

It was one of those trades I have referred to in the past, where the odds just seems to drift for no apparent rhyme or reason, this time for about 8 ticks (sub 2.00).

What happened seemed strange to me, both teams had long been announced and the odds were stable, and then all of a sudden it went south by about 8 ticks.

In the past I have agonised about whether or not to sit tight and wait and hope for the odds to come back, or whether to just assume this is the odds’ new home, so trade out and start the process again from in the red.

Well this time I took the latter option, and to my incandescent rage, the odds then came back to where I had initially entered the trade. I was absolutely fuming, as I felt I had basically lost twice.

Without going into the mechanics of the trade, I have now been reminded that my biggest foe when I am trading is ’emotion.’ This week’s trading has shown me that no matter how much I think I have cracked it, ’emotion’ is a weakness that is always there waiting to pounce.

I imagine this is how an alcoholic must feel, for weeks he/she may feel in control, then one week something happens and it triggers off all the old demons.

For any new readers to the website, don’t worry I’m not getting my knickers in a twist over losing 15 quid in a week. I’m fuming about how my discipline went slightly out of the window after weeks of calm football trading, it is the process and how I feel I failed it that is disappointing me, the money is secondary at the moment.

In the long run, I plan to trade with a four figure (plus) betting bank. This week’s trading activities has shown me that I am still far from ready to be able to trust myself with this amount of money in a betting exchange account.

Ok, so I haven’t wrecked the whole thing, but it has just served to remind me how fragile the mind can be, and how sometimes – no matter how obvious it is to an on looker – I still can’t see the wood for the trees.

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2 Responses

  1. Gunter says:

    Congrats…139% in 19 weeks is very good. I understand that most of your trades are over/under 2.5 goals. How do you decide to get in a trade? Is it just a hunch that the odds will shorten, or do you have a system? Thanks in advance.

  2. Cheers,

    It’s just a hunch really, my original plan was to put £100 back up at (ie) 1.76, and after it got matched I would then put a £100 lay up at 1.75, and so on and so on, slowly accumulating small profits.

    I now sometimes put backs or lays up simultaneously (ie, I’d put bets up trying to back Over 2.5 at 2.02 and back Under 2.5 at 1.99 at the same time).

    Or if there is a gap in the market I may get involved. For example I made a bit on the Carlisle V Coventry game last Sunday, sometimes the less obscure matches can be profitable…….. but in the long run I hope to trade with bigger amounts, so those markets would be little use then.

    I tend to try and get in early as well, the 30 minutes before kick off in a big game can be slow going with thousands waiting to be matched. I’m just putting trades up for the Man Utd V West Ham match tomorrow night now, but that can be risky as I can’t watch the market for 20 hours, and thing’s can change quickly. I suppose the key to things is probably quick in and out’s, something I haven’t been doing too much of lately, that’s probably part of the reason why I lost the other week.

    I honestly can’t really answer the question in full, it is generally I just get involved where I feel like it, and it varies what matches I trade. I have now started to think that this is a flaw in my system, I should by now have worked out a formula for whether to get involved or not, but I suppose while I was winning, I wasn’t bothered.

    If (and when) I do get round to putting a list of do’s and do not’s together, I will publish it on here, I have no reason to keep it too myself, and I can honestly say there is no secret formula.

    I just started off messing around with a tenner last summer during the Euro’s and I noticed it was easy to make a few pence a game, and the idea grew from there. I now do it with over a couple of hundred, but I wouldn’t trust myself or my system (or lack of system) with a grand or more (at the moment), as I am no where near confident enough with it. It’s just trial and error, it’s the only way to learn.

    I had hoped by now that I might be able to read a market and tell how it’s going to behave, but I honestly can’t. I have just noticed they have a tendency to move backwards and forwards a tick or two, and I trade those ticks.

    One thing I would strongly advise, is just trade one tick (price movement) at a time, if you back at odds of 2.00 and can get a lay matched at 1.99, take it… If you start being a smart arse and waiting for 1.98 or 1.97, it tends to go wrong (unless it’s obvious the price is crashing), believe me, I know from experience. Also, I would recommend working in percentages, winning 58p (for example) doesn’t sound great and there is the problem of wanting to make more money, I started off by trying to break it down that if I can win 0.5% ten times, I would have 5% profit. Try to take the pound signs out of the equation, it’s not easy though.

    Good luck, any time you want to know anything, just ask. It’s no problem.

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