Pre Match Trading – Week 17 Results

22nd December Tottenham v Stoke / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.87
23rd December Swansea v Man Utd / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.36
23rd December Chelsea v Aston Villa / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.57

A week’s football online trading profit of £8.80

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £126.13. My betting bank now stands at £226.13, I started off the experiment with a football betting bank of £100.00 and use around 75% of my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

A very quiet week’s football trading this week, with only three pre match trades. As I pointed out in last week’s post, unless I can focus properly I’m not going to get involved, and as a result, I only had time to get involved in three matches.

I’m well behind my target amount of 33% profit a month (of betting bank) at the moment, but I won’t complain as I never intended to rush this process, and my discipline seems to be holding up well.

It is a seventeenth week of successive profits though, which now proves beyond any (small remaining) doubt to me that this process works. On only two or three weeks have I come close to recording a loss, and on all those weeks I wasn’t properly focused and I still ended up in profit – albeit very small.

I also did an assured soccer profits trade again this week, on the Leeds V Chelsea cup match. These are handy to do when I haven’t got time to do any pre match trades (such as with the midweek games).

Luckily for me I traded out when Leeds went 1-0 up, as it would have got nasty in the 2nd half had I not. I ended up making a profit of £4.75 (not included in pre match trading statistics).

More information about Assured Soccer Profits can be found here…..

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6 Responses

  1. Paul Turton says:

    Hi i have signed up to the prematch trading website and had a look at videos but to be honest i don’t have a clue what im doing.There is a game tonight in the welsh league but like i say i don’t have a clue what im doing.I have had a look in the chat room but there’s nothing happening.Is it better to wait until the premiership games tomorrow and it might become clearer.Cheers Paul

  2. Hi Paul, yes mate, sorry I’m a bit late replying. I would wait for a 3pm premier league kick off to get involved, as you will probably need games with higher liquidity, and without looking at the Welsh league game, I’d doubt very much that there would be anything like enough liquidity involved in that game to trade.

    Personally, I try and use games with medium sort of money, (I’m doing Norwich V Man City, Under/Over 2.5 goals now and there is about a grand plus to back/lay in both markets) a big TV game might have too much money, while a Welsh league game wouldn’t have anywhere near enough. The Premier League 3pm kick off’s can be quite good, as the money is more spread across the games (as opposed to all the money trading a live TV game), and there’s not too much money involved to keep your cash tied up for ages waiting for it to clear. That’s how I find the Under/Over 2.5 goals market, which is what I generally trade in (I think that the Pre Match Trading people trade more markets than what I do).

    When I started off, I started using £5 to £10 until I had a better idea as to what I was doing. In general if you are using a lot of money, if you trade out when/if things start going wrong, you shouldn’t lose too much. And put a limit on what you will allow yourself to lose, ie 2% or 5% of your betting bank, what ever you are comfortable with.

    Don’t worry if your first couple of trade don’t win, mine didn’t, just stick with it and if you are patient it should work out for you. Like with most gambling/trading, stay disciplined, get out before you lose too much and just start again on another game. If you stick too that you should be ok. I hope this has helped, if you need any more advice just ask.

  3. Paul Turton says:

    Cheers for getting back to me mate.How do you know what to trade if your not using pre match trading or is that secret.

  4. No mate, no secret. There are two things I generally look for, matches with a few hundred pounds waiting to be backed or to lay (as opposed to thousands), or matches with gaps in the market.

    Ideally, I usually try and find a game with a few hundred quid waiting to be matched, that’s why the 3pm Saturday games are usually more profitable. A 4pm Live Sunday kick off might have £25k in the queue about an hour to 30 minutes before kick off. It seems all the money is spread around on the 3pm Saturday games, making it easier. While a big Live TV game will have all the money concentrating on that alone.

    If I do get involved in a big TV game, I try and go in early (or not at all), for example I’ve traded the 12.45 Saturday kick off Live TV games’s on Friday nights before and made money (at this point there is sometimes only a few hundred in the queue). While by about 11.30am on Saturday morning, I would usually bail out (on the 12.45 kick off).

    An example of a game with a gap in the market is a Portuguese game I traded on Saturday between Estoril and Porto about 2 hours before kick off, and I had £8 green on either side about an hour before kick off.

    A match with a gap in the market might look like this. ie, 1.8 to back – 1.86 to lay, I would try to fill the gap, in this situation I would put a back in at 1.85 and a lay in at 1.81, that’s what I did in the Estoril V Porto match last Saturday. The only downside to these sort of games, is there might not be enough money in the market to even up your loss if things go wrong. The Welsh game you mentioned might look like this (the main reason why I said I would leave it, is because you are new to it).

    I’ll try and explain how I would trade (what I would call) a fluent market with a few hundred quid in it as best as I can, here…. ie, say the Over 2.5 goals market is showing – 2.00 to back (£300 in queue), 2.02 (£250 in queue) to lay – I would back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02 and put £170 in the queue, I would then lay @ 2.00 and put £170 in the queue and wait to see if it gets matched. Sometimes the price will go the wrong way and you might have only one bet matched and you need to get out for a small loss and start again.

    Without wishing to complicate things, sometimes I might only put 1 bet up, depending on how the market looks. And then when that has been matched, I would try and get the right price matched to guarantee a profit.

    I remember one night trading a Spanish game, where I was backing Unders at 1.99 and backing Overs at 2.02, and I just kept ticking the money over. Every time I got one side of the trade matched, I would back the other side and just kept doing that (they’re not all as easy as that. I just stumbled across that game by chance).

    On the flip side, I’ve just lost £9 on Swansea V Villa (over 2.5 goals) in the 20 minutes prior to kick off. I’ve honestly not found any formula to finding a match. It’s pot luck, I just keep looking. Sometimes I probably get involved in games that I shouldn’t to be honest. But as I know I will only lose around 5% of betting bank, max, I don’t mind doing this too much at the moment, as I feel I am learning what not to do. At the same time, I would want to cut that out if, say, I was trading with a grand, as opposed to the current £175 – £200.

    Start off with a tenner or something small on a match, and just see how it goes. You will start to notice a trend, I haven’t worked out what the signs are to be honest, I just know sometimes when I get involved that a game looks like it could be good to trade.

    I hope this makes sense. Keep asking questions if you’re not sure, I don’t mind. And I’ve honestly got no secret formula, and I don’t mind sharing what I know.


  5. Peter Donnelly says:

    I think I have read all your blog from the beginning and I reckon that you are doing brilliant. 17 weeks of continuing profit is amazing. Keep it up mate.

    I have followed you on twitter and look forward to reading any more advice that you have to offer.

    I am still completely irrational when it comes to trading with no discipline at all. I just dive in and lose. So reading that you once was the same, gives me hope that I can turn it around.

    Any help is always appreciated.

  6. Cheers Peter, I was always diving in mate and if I still just ‘gambled’ I would probably be doing the same just now.

    I haven’t updated the trading results for a couple of weeks now, but I’m fairly sure I had a losing week last week, so it just shows that nothing is perfect. I find it’s how I react to losses that’s important, in the past I would have gone crashing in and probably bottomed out my account after a losing run, thankfully last week I didn’t.

    Hopefully that sort of behaviour is behind me, but I have to be honest, I felt like having a big bet and trying to win the money back. It’s like ‘chasing losses’ still lurking in the background, waiting to pounce.

    One thing I have found helpful (my next post mentions this), is getting myself a second betting account. I only use Betfair for my serious trading (because of liquidity) now, so I have since got myself a Betdaq account as well, which I put about £30 in and use for my speculative bets, and fun trading. I found this has helped because in the past when I got tempted to have a bet, I would use the same Betfair account, and it meant that I would be using the same betting bank – and usually all of it, when I got on a bad run.

    As I only have a small amount in Betdaq, I find that I don’t like letting it bottom out so I gamble according to that. Leaving my true betting bank in Betfair untouched, and only to be used for my serious trading. I hope that makes sense.

    Cheers, Dean

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