Pre Match Trading – Week 13 Results

21st November Arsenal v Montpellier / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost 64p
22nd November Liverpool v Young Boys / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost 50p
24th November Sunderland v West Brom / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.78
24th November Everton v Norwich / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £2.15
24th November Valladolid v Granada / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 38p
24th November Malaga v Valencia / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £3.69
24th November Betis v Real Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.62
24th November Vasco da Gama v Flamengo / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.26
25th November Espanyol v Getafe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.76
25th November Swansea v Liverpool / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.09
25th November Freiburg v Stuttgart / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.06

A week’s football online trading profit of £8.97.

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £105.02. My betting bank now stands at £205.02, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use all my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

I’m pleased to have doubled my betting bank on schedule (after 3 months). I gave myself a modest target at the start of the process to make about 33% a month, which roughly meant I should have doubled my starting bank (at the very least) after 3 months.

In hindsight, I actually feel the results could be a bit better. Over the last couple of weeks I have been rather busy doing other things and haven’t put 100% into my football trading, I feel this has contributed to a few of my losses.

On the whole though, I’m not going to complain, as I would have taken winning this amount over this period when I started my experiment.

I now really do feel after 13 weeks that this format works. Yes, I lose on the occasional match, but I’ve made a profit every week, and that is saying something.

Another reason why I believe this works is because when I do lose, it’s not very much, it’s generally only 1-2% of betting bank, which is manageable.

So far the only things I have identified that I believe could break my bank is Betfair crashing mid trade, or a lack of discipline.

The lack of discipline could come in many forms, such as not exiting a trade before kick off (due to trying to trade my way out of a small pre match loss), maybe forgetting I’ve put a bet on, or not making sure I’ve fully exited a trade properly pre kick off. Basically a lack of discipline, or rank bad carelessness.

Onto the two significant losses I suffered during this week’s trading. I was really annoyed with my trade on the Everton game, a touch of complacency kicked in I’m afraid. I put a back up and got matched, and almost immediately there was an easy green available for just over a pound (on each side of the trade) with the usual one tick movement. So instead of taking it I decided I would wait for a two tick movement, and guess what happened…..the price swung back the wrong way for me, and I ended up losing money on a trade that I should have profited from.

I think I need a kick up the backside like this every so often, it helps keep me wary that there are pitfalls that can cost me if I’m not more professional in what I do. I knew the rules and I ignored them, that is simply what cost me in this game.

The Malaga game was just one of those occasions where I took a position and it turned out to be wrong. These things will happen from time to time, it was a loss of less than 2% – as I wrote earlier, a manageable loss.

The important thing is not too react in the wrong way. There is no point chasing or doing anything rash, I just need to move on to the next game and try and get it back over the course of the day. The previous 12 week’s results have shown that this is more than possible to achieve.

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