Pre Match Trading – Week 12 Results
13th November Braintree v Tranmere / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.29
17th November Arsenal v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £1.67
17th November Newcastle v Swansea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.81
18th November Millwall v Leeds / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.97
18th November Fulham v Sunderland / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.79
18th November Getafe v Valladolid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.30
18th November Sampdoria v Genoa / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £2.85
A week’s football online trading profit of £5.64.
Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £96.05. My betting bank now stands at £196.05, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use all my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.
This was a pretty frustrating week’s football trading. It started off well with the Braintree match and then it started to go wrong after that.
Braintree was the only midweek match I managed to trade as I didn’t get home from work until too late to get involved in any of the other night’s matches. It’s all the more frustrating as I’m home in time for kick-off, it’s just that it’s too late to give me time to monitor the market before getting involved in any trades.
This is because I’m not letting myself trade a match now unless I’ve got a feel for the market – ie, watched it for 5 to 10 minutes to see how it’s behaving.
The Arsenal V Spurs game frustrated me greatly, also, as I was in a strong position about an hour before kick-off. Then after a lay (bet) of Unders at about 12.15pm (it was a 12.45pm lunch time kick off), the price came in about 4 ticks. I left my back (bet) up and waited and hoped for the price to drift back out, but it didn’t.
I have previously written about trading out at a point (for a loss) when the price has settled down, and starting the process over again. As I was busy doing something else (basically, not focusing on my trading), I just left the trade and kept checking back every 5 minutes or so, hoping to see that I had greened up.
It didn’t, so about 5 minutes before kick-off I cut my losses and took my red.
It’s another one of those dilemma trades. I had made a decent green trading the match a few hours before kick off, trading the gaps while the market was quiet.
I’m now starting to wonder if I would be better leaving these games before the big hitters arrive on the scene and saturate the market, instead moving on to the next match. The flip side to that theory is that good market swings can be had in the 10 minutes prior to kick-off.
After that loss I got myself back up to a reasonable profit with four wins, that was all then ruined by a stupid trade on the Sampdoria match.
As I mentioned before in this post, I don’t trade a game unless I can monitor the market for about 5 to 10 minutes first. Maybe a new rule I need to implement is no trading a match if I’m due to go out before it kicks off.
This is what I did with the Sampdoria match. I promised the Missus a pub meal and I dragged it out until as late as possible but finally at about 6.30 I had to give in and go. At the time I was slightly green on the match, but instead of taking a modest profit, I put another bet up and planned to trade it on my phone.
Big mistake, as I can’t check things like what side the money is queuing up on, etc, on my phone. I did tell myself ‘no football trading’ from the pub in the past, and generally I have stuck to that principle.
The worst thing about this is that I wasn’t red when I left, I could have just took my small green and closed the trade out. This was simply bad discipline, rather than a breakdown in my system.
It was a frustrating end to an average weekend. I had a lot of things to do last weekend and that’s why I didn’t trade too many matches. I could have half heartedly traded more matches and possibly lost more money, but thankfully I showed patience, which is the correct way as I am working on a long term plan here (a few percent profit a week).
Having the right mental approach to this will be vital in the long run, it’s ok while I’m trading with a couple of hundred quid, but if I want to times everything by 10, then I will have to sharpen up my act.
Anyway, it may have been a small profit, but it was still a winning week and my 12th week’s continuous profit.