My main focus from football trading these days is to try and make money from matched betting and my own variation of pre match trading, but along with these trading methods, I do allow myself to trade some other football markets.
One such market I am currently trading is the ‘Next Manchester United Manager’ market on Betfair, which I’ve allowed myself £100.00 to trade with.
It all started off in a bit of a shabby manner, but I am now finding it a good learning curve for trading long term markets, and for my football trading in general.
I could green it up at the moment, but I am going to leave it, as it could be years yet before this issue is settled as Alex Ferguson is showing no sign of letting up.
This gives me plenty of time to green up my positions more profitably as different candidates should come and go into favouritism over the course of time. This will allow me to bide my time and wait for the right prices to back runners I am red on, or I can continue to lay outsiders if their odds shorten, which will increase the decent sized green I currently have on the field.
At the moment Pep Guardiola, David Moyes and Jose Mourinho are the three main candidates. I’m £100.00 red on Pep and Eric Cantona, £80.00 red on Mourinho and £40.00 red on Moyes. I also have a medium red on Martin O’Neill and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, with the majority of the rest of the field showing £200.00 green.
I’m not worried about my position at the moment. It is possible that both Pep and Mourinho could get tempted by the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City or PSG. Pep’s representatives were spotted at the San Siro watching AC Milan three or four weeks back, so he could be in the running there also.
It is also conceivable that any candidates could take a job like Chelsea and be hired and fired before Ferguson quits United, meaning they could still get the gig at Old Trafford. The point is though, if they do take another job in the meantime, their odds will tumble.
Trading these markets isn’t always about what you think will happen, it’s how you think the market will react to a bit of speculation, or a newspaper article, etc.
There is also the prospect of being able to green up if a steamer comes in from nowhere, always a strong possibility in these markets. A manager’s stock can also rise and fall quite quickly these days, I remember looking at this market a couple of years back to see Martin O’Neill as favourite and trading below 2/1, he is now available at over 20/1, and is still worth a lay at that price in my view.
Candidates come and go as O’Neill did, that’s why I’m not worried about having a large red on Guardiola and Cantona at the moment.
One red I am trying to reduce though, is the one I have on David Moyes. I think if Ferguson chooses his replacement it could well be Moyes. I’ve also been of the view for a while now that Moyes with Phil Neville as part of his back room staff (or maybe even his assistant) could be a real runner in a couple of years time. And if Ferguson does fancy Moyes for the role, he may also decide to go if/when he thinks Moyes is primed for the job.
The other night I noticed Gary Neville got backed into 10/1, I put a lay of 11/1 up but didn’t get matched. He is already drifting, which just goes to show that if you’re in the right place at the right time, there is some money to be made. Another one who comes in every now and again before drifting is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, I’ve now just put lays up on both of them and left them, hopefully next time I check back they will be matched.
Checking back regularly can be a bit of a problem though as keeping focused on these sorts of markets can prove difficult, as it is just so easy to forget about them. For these reasons I will never leave a lay up that could cause me a serious problem if I forget about it.
All my other football trading is going well at the moment. Pre match trading hasn’t had a losing week yet, I’m stepping up my matched betting by finding more free bets, and I’m just starting a trading experiment using the Assured Soccer Profits system.
Here’s hoping for more successful football trading!
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