Pre Match Trading – Week 11 Results

5th November West Brom v Southampton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 70p
7th November Celtic v Barcelona / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.23
7th November Braga v Man Utd / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 54p
8th November Tottenham v NK Maribor / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £3.42
10th November Leicester v Nottm Forest / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £6.88
10th November Arsenal v Fulham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.14
10th November Augsburg v Dortmund / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.54
10th November Aston Villa v Man Utd / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.00
10th November Zaragoza v Deportivo / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.32
10th November Malaga v Sociedad / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £3.94
11th November Man City v Tottenham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.73
11th November Newcastle v West Ham / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.55
11th November Levante v Real Madrid / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 64p

A week’s football online trading profit of £23.79.

Total Pre Match Trading profits to date is £90.41. My betting bank now stands at £190.41, I started off the experiment with a betting bank of £100.00 and use all my available bank on my trades, which are all done pre match using Betfair.

I’m very happy with this weeks football trading results on a couple of levels. To start with I made a profit of over 10% of my betting bank which is beyond my weekly target amount of between 5% and 8%.

The other thing that pleased me was my match trading discipline and some (not all) of my match selections.

I got the Tottenham game wrong on Thursday (8th) and took my hit. I was happy (not with losing obviously) that I showed the required discipline to just trade out and accept my loss. The other thing that pleased me was that the penny dropped with regard to a price running away from me when I get into negative territory (can only trade out for a red).

Usually when a price runs away from where I entered the market I generally expect the price to come back to somewhere near to where it was when I entered the trade, so I have a bad habit of sitting back and waiting. Sometimes this doesn’t happen though, the price will continue to drift or shorten away from my lay or back, so my potential red is continuing to grow while I just sit back and watch.

When I put it like that, why the hell do I just let this happen? Why do I just automatically assume that the price will come back to where I need it too? It’s stupid really.

Well in the Tottenham game I didn’t sit back. I acted and just got out and accepted my loss. It was close to kick off (about 5 minutes) so rather than re-entering the market and trying to reduce my green, I just clicked my mouse and closed the screen. If only I had learnt to do that 10 years ago!

So I was pleased with myself there.

Another part of my pre match trading that pleased me was how I reacted in the Real Madrid game on Sunday (11th).

I put a lay up of Under 2.5 goals at 2.64 and left it, I checked back and I was unmatched, but the price had drifted out to 2.74. I thought this was a bit odd, but at the same time I thought it surely won’t carry on drifting, so I backed it at 2.74 and placed a lay at 2.72.

Checked back about two minutes later and it had been matched, but the price had come into 2.64 again. I was a bit bemused by it all, so amazingly I decided I would have nothing more to do with this particular market as something was obviously going on. I evened up my small green and again clicked my mouse and closed the page. Again, if only I could have learnt to do that 10 years ago!

It turned out that the pitch was waterlogged, I can only assume that was the reason for the market’s erratic behaviour. This is where I should have been on Twitter trying to find out what was going on (so I suppose that was a failure on my part, if I’m being harsh on myself).

But the positive to take out of this was my decision making clearly was correct. I’m hoping this is me being able to read signals better, as opposed to just a lucky hunch I had.

Of some of the other matches, Chelsea V Liverpool had too much money in the market, so I left it. Whereas Leicester V Nottingham Forest just had a few hundred quid ticking over at any time, so I kept on trading it, it was quite easy to be honest (and was my largest win of the week).

Maybe I have stumbled across something there. A match with a particular (modest) amount of liquidity in it’s seems better for my trading methods. Whereas in the 4pm TV game on a Sunday afternoon the liquidity may be too high, but if I where to start trading a live TV game about 3 to 4 hours before kick off, the liquidity could be more at my level.

It’s something for me too keep an eye on, and it’s yet another element to pre match trading for me to try and learn.

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