Week 8 Results
17th October Poland v England / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £4.75
20th October Tottenham v Chelsea / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £1.39
20th October Liverpool v Reading / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.04
20th October Norwich v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 85p
20th October Palmeiras v Cruzeiro / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 15p
21th October QPR v Everton / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 80p
21st October Osasuna v Betis / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.92
Profit of £8.12.
Total Pre Match Trading Profits to date – £44.94. Betting bank now stands at £144.94, started off the experiment with £100.00 betting bank.
On the whole I would take that as a decent weeks pre match trading profits. But there was a couple of mitigating circumstances. First, the Poland V England. Trading this game was a fairly easy trade and in hindsight I could (and should) have made far more that I did. Second, I made a bit of a cock up on the Tottenham V Chelsea game.
In fact, the Tottenham game absolutely infuriated me. About 20 minutes from kick off, I was just over £2.50 green on both sides of the trade. I sat there and looked at the market in the knowledge that it was a bit spooked by the (just announced) absence of Gareth Bale.
This had resulted in Over 2.5 goals drifting out two or three ticks, so I thought that was probably as far as it would go and backed it – in the belief that the market had maybe over reacted to Bale’s absence, and would subsequently correct itself.
No, the market continued to drift, I sat there continuing to watch it in the belief it would soon turn back, and guess what? It didn’t. The match was about to kick off, so I traded out for a loss of £1.39.
I was at least happy with my discipline in trading out for a loss pre kick off. I said in last week’s round up that I needed to start to close my position pre match. This enables me to have true pre match trading records.
Back to the Spurs game, and at that moment I made my mind up there and then that from now on I am going to move on to the next match as soon as I manage to green up a trade. I’ve have since had a slight rethink about this though.
It did infuriate me though, hence my reaction to start to believe that once I was green I move on. I followed this procedure for the next few games I traded.
That was until my last trade of the weekend in the match between Osasuna and Betis on Sunday evening. I greened up and then watched the market for a while. It suddenly dawned on me that 1.99 on Unders and 2.02 on Overs was just continually getting matched.
All in all I went in 4 times over trading £100.00. There was less than a grand at a time on both markets and the money just kept turning over.
So looking back I believe it is just a judgement call about when to pull out of trade and finish with it.
In hindsight, maybe I should have left the Spurs game alone when the news came out about Gareth Bale not playing. But I imagine there will come a game some time soon in which I make a couple of extra quid on the back of a spooked market from some team news. It really is a hard one to call.