My second week’s pre match trading was a quiet one due to the international break, meaning only a couple of trades.
The first one stuck out like a sore thumb. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that Belgium were going to get smashed in the betting, and that’s exactly what happened. I backed them on the Monday evening and just left the bet, only trading out on Friday morning I think it was (if memory serves me right).
It was effectively a risk free bet, every where I looked, on Twitter, on forums, on blogs etc, people were claiming they intended to back Belgium. The biggest risk I found was a discipline one, I got that carried away in my own mind that Belgium would easily win that I got tempted to just leave the money on and back them outright to win.
Obviously the reason to me doing pre match trading is to avoid doing things like this, so I was happy that common sense prevailed and I didn’t back Belgium outright, although I was a bit annoyed when I watched how comfortably they won. But never mind, I stuck to my original plan and that’s the main thing.
Week 2 Results
7th September Wales v Belgium / Match Odds – Won £6.32
7th September Argentina v Paraguay / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.29
Week 2, profit of £7.61
I think it would be naive to think that an obvious pre match trade like the Belgium one will come around every week, but there must be games priced up slightly wrong most weeks.
Maybe saying priced up wrong is the wrong way to describe them, I suppose it is more a match in which the betting fraternity believes there is massive value and if you are on to it early enough, you can ensure a risk free profit pre match. It would be great to be able to read the markets well enough to spot these games, they could be in the lower leagues or abroad, but I am sure they are out there somewhere.
The other match I traded was just a straight forward in and out of the Over/Under 2.5 goals market a couple of times. No science there yet, just a hunch and a hope that I can back a tick higher than I lay, a couple of times or more.
I do believe that these is a way of reading these markets, maybe from the Correct Score market, but I’m yet to learn that. And as I say, at the moment I’m trading them on a hunch in general. Let’s hope it lasts for a while.