Pre Match Trading Update – The First Month
During September I have been experimenting with trading football matches, pre kick off. I have given myself a betting bank of £100 and I have been using this amount in pretty much all of my trades to date.
At the end of September I have to say I am satisfied with my results so far. In fairness, they are nothing special, they are not going to make me rich in the next 6 months, and I doubt anybody reading this will see a profit of £29.41 as anything to write home about.
But what the past month has told me, is that pre match trading works. A return of £29.41 in a month is a pretty healthy return, percentage wise. To put it another way, if I was working with a betting bank of £1000.00, it would have been a return of £294.10, which is more than decent.
I did encounter some problems along the way. In a few of the games I let the match kick off with my trade still not matched up. I was waiting for the price to move a tick or two, to enable me to green up for my profit. In the long run I can’t carry on doing that as an early goal would probably see a months work ruined.
If I’m down on a trade as a match is about to kick off I need to take my punishment, red up, and move on. After all, when I look at the bigger picture, I’m basically risking the best part of my £100.00 betting bank in order to try and win £1.00 to £1.50. Is that really sensible?
I certainly hope I wouldn’t be taking stupid risks like that if I was working with a £1000.00 betting bank.
The Everton V Newcastle match during Week 4 represented a bit of a disaster. In the end I lost £8.80, but it could have been a lot worse.
At kick off I was just over £16.00 red, but after a bit of in match trading I managed to halve my losses. My maximum liability while trading during the match was around £20.00, so I suppose it wasn’t a massive risk considering where I was at the start.
This was a trade were I put two bets up in the morning, went to work and came home to see that only one bet had been matched, but the price had gone the opposite way to what I thought it would, meaning I was looking a large red. The bet was on Under/Over 2.5 goals, I thought it would be a tight match and the Under 2.5 goals’ odds would shorten, instead they lengthened.
I did a similar thing a couple of weeks earlier when I backed Belgium to beat Wales about 5 days before kick off, but the difference (I believe) is that half the gambling community were making it clear they were going to back Belgium, where as in the Everton game, that wasn’t the case.
I’ve thought long and hard about these two bets. Obviously one won and the other cost me a large red. So where they both wrong? Or maybe both right?
I’m not 100% sure to be honest, but as I mentioned above, half of Twitter and the forums I was looking at were claiming they were going to be backing Belgium, while I don’t recall seeing anyone saying they would be backing Under 2.5 goals in the Everton V Newcastle match.
Therefore I can only conclude that the Belgium bet was an informed calculated risk, whereas the Everton game was just my view of what I thought the market would do, without any justification for thinking in this way.
Of course any price can move the wrong way, and leaving bets up while I’m at work and unable to react is risky and unprofessional. I suppose some are riskier than others though, and it’s up to me to work out which are which.
Anyway, it’s good to know that I can make money using this method. I’m going to work hard to not get complacent using this method, I now know that something can go badly wrong at any time doing this if I take my eye off the ball.
With this in mind I’m going to stick to my plan of just using my betting bank (as opposed to topping it up) for the time being, if I can continue in the same vein of making around 7%-8% a week over next few weeks, then I may consider putting a bit more money in the account to trade with. But first I need to become more confident in my ability to read the markets.
There is another way I could top my account up, and that is by starting to do matched betting again. This is a method using free bets that made me over £300.00 at the back end of last season, from a starting bank of £100.00.
A lot of that money was reload offers from Bet365, and some of it was from Cash Back sites who I opened two bookmaker accounts through. I only actually opened three new online bookmaker accounts in all, so clearly I have a lot more bookies and free bets to work my way through.