Wow, four weeks profit in a row, what’s going on? This is unheard of for me, and achieved despite a set back with the first pre match trading activity of the week.
Is this the dawn of the new me? Patience and discipline, decent bet selection, not getting carried away, etc? Well, I’d say that at the moment, the answer to that question is definitely a big fat ‘No’.
A step in the right direction? Definitely ‘Yes’.
I have found a couple of chinks in my armour. The idea with this system was to try and eradicate as much risk and gambling as possible, and to put myself in a situation where I wouldn’t be relying on my discipline (or lack off as the case is) being up to scratch to prevent me from doing something daft.
Unfortunately I have found a small discipline issue that I really do need to address, but at the same time I might be able to prevent it from becoming an issue as I learn the market better. Hopefully, moving forward I’ll be in a position to have matched all my bets and to be out of the trade before my discipline becomes an issue.
What I am waffling on about is not having completed my so-called pre match trades before the game has kicked off. In Week 4’s results there are at least 2 matches I wasn’t out off and finished before the game kicked off. Instead I was hanging on for the first couple of minutes waiting for the price to move the couple of ticks I needed for the trade to be complete and in profit – a slight contradiction to the concept of pre match trading!
Anyway, I’ll address this issue in more detail in a separate blog post.
The first trade of Week 4 turned out to be a bit of a calamity. I lost £8.80 on Everton V Newcastle, and that was a result at the time as I had previously been looking at a loss of over £16.00 – all my previous 3 weeks winnings.
I did a bit of in-match trading and managed to half the losses. I then accepted in my head that if I could break even this week, I would be more than happy with this as I am embarking on a long term project (as AVB might say).
This is a good show of patience and discipline and I was very pleased with my reaction, as in the past I would have probably tried to win it all back in one go and bottomed out my Betfair account.
I will blog in more detail about what happened with the Everton V Newcastle match. I am currently not sure in my mind if it was a stupid trade, bad luck, bad trade selection or bad trade execution, etc. I did a similar thing a couple of weeks back in the Wales V Belgium match and won, so I’m not sure if I was wrong or just unlucky, and what (if anything) I could have done differently.
Anyway, enough, here is Week 4’s Pre Match Trading Results
17th September Everton v Newcastle / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Lost £8.80
18th September Real Madrid v Man City / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.29
22nd September Southampton v Aston Villa / Match Odds – Won £1.36
22nd September Chelsea v Stoke / Match Odds – Won £1.19
22nd September Birmingham v Barnsley / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.27
22nd September Betis v Espanyol / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £1.42
22nd September Fluminense v Nautico / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 94p
23rd September Mallorca v Valencia / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.03
23rd September Liverpool v Man Utd / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 91p
23rd September Man City v Arsenal / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won 66p
23rd September Ath Bilbao v Malaga / Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Won £2.99
Week 4, profit of £6.26
This takes the overall profit to £22.23, about a 20% profit for the 4 weeks to date. Not too bad, I suppose.