Oh no, the return of next manager markets on Betfair

After a bad experience in ‘Next Manager’ markets on Betfair when ‘Arry’ Redknapp went back to Pompey, I decided to give up trading them as I just didn’t trust getting involved in markets that were obviously influenced by people who knew more than I did.

That was until I spotted what I believed to be a great chance to ‘lay’ Terry Connor in the next Wolves manager market a few weeks back. I played it safe with regard to laying Connor and ended up with something like £1.27 green on him, with the field at around £80 green and 5 or 6 of the other candidates with well over £100 green.

To be honest, I actually enjoyed it, I couldn’t believe it, but I did.

So last week when the West Brom, Aston Villa and Liverpool next manager markets opened up I was actually quite excited.

A week on and I have had enough of the bloody things, they require non stop attention, they are unpredictable and are damn right stressful. You just can’t take your eye of them for 5 minutes in case you miss a massive market swing – which I have done loads of times already.

Take the Liverpool market for example, Roberto Martinez was favourite to start with, but I spotted late on Thursday night that one or two newspapers had started to run a story about Liverpool asking Swansea for permission to speak to Brendan Rodgers.

So with this in mind I placed a bet on Rodgers and went to bed in the belief that his odds would come tumbling down in the morning when all the early risers got up and seen the reports.

Wrong! I got up and his odds hadn’t budged, barely a tick difference.

So I thought that he obviously won’t drift, so I’ll go to work and leave my bets matched and won’t bother laying out again for a scratch trade. What happens? Within an hour of me leaving I hear on the radio that Rodgers has declared he doesn’t even want to meet Liverpool to discuss the job, let alone take it if offered.

So after this I’m already chasing my tail in the Liverpool market.

I then backed Rafa Benitez on the back of reports Liverpool want to speak to him, and he drifts, so I lay him for a slight red. I then back AVB on the back of reports Liverpool want to speak to him, and for about 36 hours his odds barely move, so I lay some of my trade back.

Thankfully I left some green on AVB and he has now gone favourite, but if his odds had moved 24 hours earlier I would have been able to green the field. As it stands he would have to be trading at about 1.2 for me to be able to green the field now.

I have at times over the weekend thought about throwing my shovel away, but I just can’t leave the market alone, it’s like an addiction. At the moment I am green on most of the front runners with the exception of Roberto Martinez and Rafa Benitez.

I am not overly worried as it stands, but a flier coming out of the field from nowhere could land me in trouble as I haven’t been able to green up the field so far.

In the Villa market I am scratch the field with a large green on a couple of outsiders and small green on two of the favourites. While in the West Brom market I am red on Chris Hughton, green the field and I have a couple of quid on a couple of candidates I have a hunch for.

But please, hurry up and finish and put me out of my misery.

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2 Responses

  1. lay small, only leave offers up that are well under the current market and try to lay as many of them as possible. The more guys you lay, the bigger buffer you have to play with on everyone else. The only backing I ever do is tiny bets at huge odds on guys I think might be a decent fit, generally just leave the backing to the mugs listening to all the rumours on SSN & Twitter…

  2. Cheers Scott, it slowly dawned on me during the Liverpool manager market that laying was the best method here. Got caught out trying to be a bit too smart, when just applying some basic rules would have seen a comfortable profit. Sometimes I am my own worst enemy with regard to over complicating things.

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