Apologies for being a bit late with this weeks results, anyway here is the Assured Soccer Profits system results for the week 13/02/12 – 19/02/12……
14/02/12 Coventry v Leeds – Won £2.38
15/02/12 AC Milan V Aresenal – Lost £10.80
15/02/12 Ayr v Falkirk – Won £2.02
15/02/12 The Strongest v Santos – Won £2.19
16/02/12 Trabzonspor v PSV – Lost £2.52
16/02/12 Porto v Man City – Won £1.90
16/02/12 Steaua Bucharest v Twente – Won £2.14
17/02/12 Hoffenheim v Mainz – Won £1.09
17/02/12 Fiorentina v Napoli – Won 47p
17/02/12 Reading v Burnley – Won £1.34
18/02/12 Chelsea v Birmingham – Won 55p
18/02/12 Nurnberg v FC Koln – Won £3.18
18/02/12 Kaiserslautern v Mgladbach – Lost £1.00
18/02/12 H Berlin v Dortmund – Won £2.09
18/02/12 Sunderland v Arsenal – Won £1.38
18/02/12 Tigres v Atlas – Lost £7.50
19/02/12 Aberdeen v St Johnstone – Lost £7.45
19/02/12 Cesena v AC Milan – Won £5.43
19/02/12 Gijon v Atl Madrid – Won £2.37
19/02/12 Levante v Rayo Vallecano – Won 78p
19/02/12 Paris St-G v Montpellier – Won £3.70
Won £3.74 overall.
A profit of just £3.74 from 21 games traded isn’t exactly value for money and when you take into consideration the amount of time invested, last weeks effort resulted in a very poor return.
There is a lot of games where I have only won around £1, with three games only seeing a return in pennies. Without analysing them in too much detail, I know that I was over cautious in a lot of them. For example I traded out of Chelsea V Birmingham at 0-1, when the smart money was saying an equaliser was fairly likely.
As a result of this over cautious approach on some of the games, I struggled to absorb the losses. In the cases of the Tigres v Atlas (lost £7.50) and Aberdeen v St Johnstone (lost £7.45) matches, I wasn’t over cautious and they both went and bloody drew 0-0, costing me.
There is an obvious inconsistency there which needs looking at with regard to which matches I am over cautious in. Should I trade in a cautious way in all matches, or none at all? If I’m going to accept £7.50 reds, then I need to be winning more green, when I do win.
Small £1.00 wins aren’t going to be sustainable against £7.50 losses in the long run, it needs to be at least a 1/3 ratio (£2.50 wins against £7.50 losses) or something around that mark in the long run. ie £2.50 wins against £7.50 losses, with a 1 loss in every 5 or more matches traded, rate – which I believe is possible.
Of last weeks games, I lost 5 out of 21, which is a better than a 1/4 loss/win ratio. Work that out on a loss rate of £7.50 to a win rate of £2.50 and the profits would be greater than what I just achieved.
Onto the games themselves and of the losses there was one match in particular which had mitigating circumstances. If I had a red card procedure in place I would have reduced my red in this one match, but at the same time I don’t want to apply a hard and fast rule with no flexibility – to games in which a red card occurs.
For example in the Tigres match, the market supported a home goal, Tigres then had a man sent off in the 1st half and the market totally changed its approach and seemed to suggest Tigres would be happy with a 0-0. There was a point when I could have got out for a loss of around £2.00, so in hindsight I should have just cut my losses. Given the unheeded market warnings, this match has to go down as a bad judgement call from myself.
But going back to my original dilemma, and would a rule with no flexibility have worked there? It may well have done. But at the same time, if that had been a red card for the opposition (away team) then the market would surely have further supported a goal for the home team (who were the favourites going into the match), which would suggest that having a rule that I get out if there is a red card would be stupid.
Taking that on again, say a red card came at 0-0 in the 75th minute of a game and I still had a smallish red on 0-0 and a bit of green on any other score, would it be worth trading out for an all round loss at this stage? As any side in that position would just put all 10 men behind the ball at this stage.
This is why I think I’m correct to be flexible when it comes to red cards, I just need to judge the game better in future and weigh up the options in a more balanced way.
Going back to the Chelsea V Birmingham game and my judgement was in question there as well. At 0-1, it was stupid really to take my green and not lay 0-1 when another goal was almost assured. Not only did I not lay 0-1, I also closed out my position to leave a profit of just 55p, when I was green to around just under £2.00 at the time of it going 0-1.
Not my greatest trade I have to say, but I was experimenting with the over cautious approach at the time. I believe that if I was to do it that way in the long run, every game would have to be treated the same way as the margins of error would be so small. Anyway, I don’t think that will be a route I will be persisting with much more.
I have though almost settled on a lay ratio between the different score lays, but it is still in the final stages of being tightened up. The problem I have though is that I realistically need a trade to start going wrong to see how the situation can be rectified, that is why I am persisting with very low stakes at the moment that should see a maximum loss of £10.00 on any given game.
It’s the 0-0 loss that is the bigger more common problem though and that is where I really need to tighten up my trading technique. More information about Assured Soccer Profits can be found here.