Can a value bet ever be too short a price?
I endured yet another frustrating night with the Championship fixtures on Tuesday.
All day long I had it in my head that Peterborough were absolutely certain to get nothing against Cardiff tonight. They were priced up at 6 to 6.2 on Betfair, but I thought as this is the Championship where anything can happen, are they a touch too long to lay?
So what did I do? I went and threw a few 0-0 lays in for easy money and turned it into a multiple. And what happened? Yes, a 0-0 in the Birmingham V Hull cost me the whole bet.
I ask myself, why the hell did I do that? Why do I keep doing these stupid things?
Peterborough not to win was basically a 1/5 shot, I hate backing at odds that short, so that is where the problem arises. If I had just done that bet and the ‘Posh’ had sneaked a 1-0 win, I would be kicking myself just as hard and asking myself why I was backing at such short odds.
I often find myself facing this sort of conundrum, where I strongly fancy something, but short odds put me off. But if it is a so called banker (I am aware nothing is certain), then surely it’s worth doing, is it not?
Is a 1/5 banker I’m 99% certain off, a worse bet or worse value than an even money shot that I’m about 75% certain off, but carries more risk?
This is the kind of situation that I really seem to struggle with. When does a short price become too short? And what is value?
If for example the New Zealand rugby team were 1/5 to beat Italy in New Zealand, I would probably be rubbing my hands with glee and thinking this is buying money, 1/5 wouldn’t be too short then, would it? I’d snap that up in an instant, surely any gambler worth his salt would also do so?
I think I may be answering my own question as I write this!