It was all going so well – and then Saturday happened. I traded five games on Saturday using the Assured Soccer Profits system, and four of the ba—-ds lost, wrecking what had been up to that point a good week – I couldn’t believe it!
I can accept that a couple of them might have been risky trades, but the law of averages surely meant that three of those five games wouldn’t end up 0-0, but that’s exactly what happened. Birmingham V Wolves and Nottingham Forest V Leicester both had potential to be low scoring games, but I expected that maybe one goal would decide these games.
With that in mind, maybe I would have been better off taking the approach I adopted in the West Brom V Everton game the week before, yes, the approach that I claimed I would follow from now on – but didn’t bother just a week on.
The reason why I abandoned the West Brom approach so soon was because I thought that 0-0’s are fairly rare and that I may as well just take them on the chin. I decided that the money I could win by not trading out so soon, should outweigh the loss that the odd 0-0 will cost.
After what happened on Saturday though, maybe another slight adjustment is needed. Maybe in future when I do a game that I believe could be low scoring, I should set the bet up for a minimal loss on 0-0, with the majority of red on the higher score in the trade. And if I anticipate a few goals, set the trade vice versa.
For the record, the 4th loss, Derby V Crystal Palace obviously wasn’t down to a 0-0, it was down to an early goal before I got 0-0 matched and a subsequent lay of 1-0 – maybe in future I should just get out of a game that has a goal before a 0-0 lay is matched.
Of the 15 games traded last week between 02/01/12 and 08/01/12, I recorded a loss of £16.12. Here is a list of those games…..
02/01/12 Rochdale v Preston – Won £4.70
02/01/12 QPR v Norwich – Won £3.32
02/01/12 Blackburn v Stoke – Won £4.37
02/01/12 Portsmouth v Watford – Won £1.90
02/01/12 Rio Ave v Sp Lisbon – Won £3.73
03/01/12 Wigan v Sunderland – Lost £14.13
03/01/12 Man City v Liverpool – Won £2.01
04/01/12 Everton v Bolton – Won £1.47
04/01/12 Newcastle v Man Utd – Won £4.89
05/01/12 Valencia v Sevilla – Won £5.13
07/01/12 Birmingham V Wolves – Lost £10.00
07/01/12 Derby V Crystal Palace – Lost £7.90
07/01/12 Nottingham Forest V Leicester – Lost £10.24
07/01/12 Santander v Zaragoza – Won £5.70
07/01/12 Sociedad V Osasuna – Lost £11.07
All this means I now have a running profit of £78.32 using this system, I will update my Assured Soccer Profits results page in full over the next 24 hours.