Has the penny finally dropped with the ASP system?
I traded two games today, West Brom V Everton and Sunderland V Manchester City, using the Assured Soccer Profits system. I ended up winning the princely sum of £2.04, but a penny may have dropped and I’d like to think that today could be a watershed moment for me in how to use this system more efficiently going forward.
I have had a good week with the system overall, it has gone a long way to recouping some serious losses from West Brom V Manchester City and the subsequent chasing I did afterwards, activity which I will update on tomorrow.
Back onto today and whilst watching West Brom V Everton I got the distinct feeling that the game could have 0-0 written all over it. As a result of this I bailed out of my 0-0 lays when the price was 6.2, rather than at half time when 0-0 is usually around 4.3, my usual exit point.
After exiting 0-0, I found myself with a red of £2.40 on 0-0, and a green of £1.09 on all other scores. I think AUQ was in green for a few pence.
Basically, £2.40 was a loss I could live with and it wouldn’t have ruined all my good work of the previous 4 or 5 days. A week ago I would have got out at half time. If I had waited until half time today, I would have been looking at a red of around approximately £13-£15 such was the shortness of the 0-0 price. As I stated above, the usual half time price for 0-0 is generally around 4.3.
0-0 actually hit this price in the 35th minute today, such was the markets lack of expectation of goals.
In affect, when I traded out I left myself with a £2.40 bet at odds of just above 2/5 on the match not finishing 0-0, which was probably somewhere slightly under what the market price was at the time. But the crucial point is that if a goal had been scored before the 35th minute, I would have won a few more quid.
Onto Sunderland V Man City, I layed AUQ pre match for 8.8, I had about £35 liability on this score. I also layed 0-0 at 13 in first couple of minutes of match.
After what happened with Schalke the other week and with Man City having scored bags of goals this season, I reduced my AUQ liability and again layed 0-0 after about 15-18 minutes.
I was going out and when I left the house I was in the position of 0-0 £30 red, AUQ £11 red, any other score £6 green, at about the 20 minute mark.
My first obvious mistake is getting involved in a bet when I was going out (I already knew that) and my second mistake was expecting a Manchester City goal. I only done the bet in the knowledge I was going out because it was City and they were bound to score, right? Wrong!
Because I expected City would score I didn’t bother worrying about an exit strategy, like the one I used in the West Brom V Everton match. As a result of this when I got to where I was going at half time, I could only back 0-0 (on my phone) to leave me with £16 red on the goalless outcome.
I had to take it, as I remember only too well what happened in the West Brom V Man City match a few days back. So I left myself with £16 red on 0-0, £11 red on AUQ and 95p green on all other scores.
As I was thinking about writing this blog post it started to occur to me that the West Brom V Everton game was the way the system is supposed to be used. It has got me thinking back to watching the videos about this system and how the games should be traded.
I have in the past been guilty of excepting a loss on 0-0 from time to time, with the perception that the wins will outweigh the losses in the long run.
If I had waited until half time in the West Brom game to exit, I would still have left a £1 green on all other scores. So in effect I would have stood to win the same (as I actually did win), but lose 5 or 6 times more (had it finished 0-0).
All I lost was the opportunity of winning around £5 with a goal in the 10 minutes before half time. I suppose it comes down to weighing up the balance between what I might win with a goal between 35 minutes and half time, against what a 0-0 would cost me if I waited until half time to reduce liabilities.
Obviously trading out on 35 minutes reduces the window of opportunity for the first goal to be scored, but the wins are of such a minimum amount with this system that one big loss can write off a week’s winnings, so it’s now starting to dawn on me that not losing or seriously limiting losses, should be the first rule of using this system.
As it happened the late Sunderland winner bailed me out, but if it had of finished 0-0 then I would have wiped out most of Saturdays profits, which would have been another set back for my trial of the system.
In the past I have left bets to run in the hope a goal would come, I soon learned that was wrong. I then decided that I needed to get out at half time, I know believe that to be wrong.
So in conclusion, taking both these trades into consideration I am now going to implement the system in the way I used it in the West Brom V Everton game.
I’m now going to (discipline pending) try to bail out when I’m at the stage where the loss will only wipe out the profits for a maximum of one or two matches, rather than a day or two’s profits – like I have sometimes been doing.
I have stressed time and time again that I am learning with this system. To any regular readers it probably seems that I am learning very slowly and I couldn’t disagree with that. In fact it could be argued that if I had been hit round the face with a wet kipper with the information on it, it still wouldn’t have sunk in. In hindsight it seems so bloody obvious that you don’t let one potential 0-0 match wipe out a day or two’s profits, so why has it taken me so long to realise? Doh.
For anyone interested in the system, more information can be found here.