The weekend just gone (ending 18/12/11) has seen me record my first weekly running loss in over a month. It was a disappointing performance from myself and I am very peed off with how I handled a couple of losses on Saturday.
I started off recording a loss of £16.75 on Newcastle V Swansea using the ASP method, that wasn’t the real problem though and that loss could have easily been absorbed.
The big stinger came in the form of a very greedy lay of Any Unquoted score in the Schalke v Werder Bremen match, which ended up 5-0 to Schalke. I suppose this one will also have to go down as an ASP loss, as I don’t generally lay AUQ as a rule.
Where I went wrong here was choosing a game with a high 0-0 price, meaning I didn’t have a chance to get a 0-0 lay matched. To compensate for this I overdid AUQ and layed it to the tune of £40 liability.
Bearing in mind it was 3rd against 5th I didn’t anticipate a goal rush, and a result of this I didn’t lay 1-0 when Schalke opened the scoring. It soon went 2-0, so all I could do was sit on 2-0 and hope that Schalke shut up shop. Not a chance.
I’ll go into more detail of where I went wrong in this game when I write my ASP round up later in the week.
After these losses I had a visit from the infamous red mist. I hadn’t seen it for a while, but it’s definitely still here within me.
I layed 0-0 in the half time Correct Score market in the Milan match for a large chunk (it finished 0-0 at HT). At half time I then backed over 3.5 goals and AUQ score, which was definitely a case of me chasing my losses.
Now I’m fairly certain that had I not had big losses earlier in the day I would never have done those bets. I would have just played the percentage game and got on over 1.5 goals at half time (which is my staple bet in these circumstances), which would have won.
Due to my red mist moment, instead of recording a modest win on AC Milan, I instead registered a large loss. I then done the above mentioned over 1.5 goals bet in the 2nd half of the Porto game, and duly won.
Looking at my account, if I had done the same on the Milan game I think I would probably have had a scratch week by Sunday night. My weeks performance was quite good on the whole, and this has helped me to only record a loss of just over £20, when it could have been much worse.
Despite the losses, I’ve managed to put a positive spin on it. I’ve basically been aiming for 7% profit a week, so if I look at my account since I started my 7% weekly target on 13/11/11, I’m actually still above my target amount .
Week Ending – Bank – Target Amount (7%)
18/12/11 – £178.00 – £171.09
11/12/11 – £199.96 – £159.90
04/12/11 – £160.57 – £149.44
27/11/11 – £153.18 – £139.67
20/11/11 – £143.56 – £130.54
13/11/11 – £122.00
The only problem is that I am in a bit of a hole in the Bangladesh V Pakistan test match, so I could be well down by this time next week. Anyway there is still time to get out of that with limited losses (here’s hoping).
As I wrote above, I will be back later in the week with an update on my Assured Profits System trading, despite having two losing weekends with the system, I’m relieved to say I’m still showing an overall profit – and hopefully, I’ve learned a valuable lesson or two.