Trading Update – More questions than answers

Another week has passed since my last post, so apologies to my one or two readers there. I do intend to update much more often, but what with lack of match action and not much spare time I didn’t get round to posting anything over the past 7 days.

Anyway, I seem to remember writing last week that from now on I was going to have to justify every single penny that I staked, I have to admit that I have failed miserably in that challenge.

I got involved in some of the Irish leagues last week with mixed results, won here and lost there, not a big problem trading them. But it seems that once I have logged in to my Betfair account that I just can’t leave it, as after the Irish games I still went on to gamble on more (shall we say) obscure leagues.

I find when I do this it just comes down to being a numbers game, one game comes in and the next one losses. I do try and pick a game with a heavy odds on favourite involved, or one where Over 2.5 goals is 1.9 or lower. Then if the under dog is winning at the 70 minute mark I get involved, or if the score is 0-0 in the game with goals expected I get involved at around the hour mark.

I also had some success laying the HT scores in these particular types of matches after about 40 minutes, in fact I would say that is where the majority of my wins has come from over the last week. Again if the under dog is leading I lay the HT score, in the games with goals expected I layed 0-0.

There was plenty of other matches that weren’t justified to be betting on either, but I have to admit I won on some of them. There was a Spanish 2nd division game where the the underdog went in front on around the 20 minute mark (I think it was), I waited until about the 35th minute and put a HT Correct Score lay up (of 1/10) and it got matched remarkably early (due to lack of liquidity) and the goal duly arrived. That was one success.

It was bizarre because after the equaliser, the HT score was getting matched at 1.2 a full 2 or 3 minutes after the goal and I’d been matched at 1.10 a good 5 minutes earlier. It seems that the lack of liquidity leads to people taking false prices.

I also layed Under 1.5 goals at 0-0 in quite a few games at around the 70th minute, I got a good result in a couple of them, but Santos on Sunday night was nearly perfect with them scoring about 30 seconds after I was matched, if only they could be all like that.

On to the games I (allegedly) know something about, and I got involved in Charlton V Tranmere at HT on Saturday. Charlton had been in reasonable form lately and were top of the league so I didn’t think it was unreasonable to lay Under 3.5 goals (price was 1.27) at HT with Tranmere winning 0-1, hoping for a couple of goals before about the 70th minute so I could trade out for a profit.

There was no change to the score and after about 75 minutes the Under 3.5 goals lay was looking dead in the water so I layed Under 2.5 goals as well, nearly straight away the suspended sign came up and it went 1-1. I traded my liability down to £1.50 if it stayed 1-1, leaving enough green on Over 2.5 goals to cover my losing Under 3.5 goals lay. It finished 1-1 and I ended up £1.50 down.

No massive damage there, but it did leave me with more questions than answers again. Should I have just waited for 20 minutes (into the 2nd half) and seen what the score was then?

Using the Charlton game as an example (with them 0-1 down), basically if I don’t get an early goal the Under 3.5 goals lay is dead, I then dig myself a bigger hole by laying Under 2.5 goals, and then if there is still no goal I lay the Correct Score as well, so in some cases I end up losing 3 times.

This technique I’m attempting is far from the finished article, it already has enough flaws in it, so it’s pointless adding a potential third losing bet. The general technique is to usually lay one bet in a game and then if it’s going wrong I lay the correct score when it goes below 1.4 to try and cover my losing bet, so I am already looking at the prospect of losing twice.

Maybe I need to just do what I originally intended in these situations and just wait, if it’s still 0-1 after 60-70 minutes, then get involved. If Charlton had been 2-1 up by then, then I’ve missed out and I just have to move onto the next game. In doing it this way I’m obviously going to miss out on some winning bets, but I will also miss out on losing three times on the one game.

It could be that I just have to start trading with this system after the 65 minute mark of every game, who knows, but it is a thought that I will have to give serious consideration too.

Another game I picked up a couple of quid on was Liechtenstein V Scotland before a ball was even kicked, I layed Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 and then backed it at 2.14 pre match. This got me thinking should I invest more time looking for potential market changes before a game even starts, maybe checking the weekend markets on a Thursday/Friday evening, although in this case the biggest price shift seemed to come in the couple of hours prior to kick off.

All in all it’s been a bit of a confusing week and I’m a bit unsure of just where to go from here really.

I have the option of just trading games I have knowledge of, or do I continue with my laying of random games and try to develope a particular system that creates a long term profit using the numbers game, then there is looking to trade before kick off and the fourth option is implementing the Assured Soccer Profits system which I’m currently looking into. There are more questions than answers.

Anyway, despite listing a few notable wins above, there was also plenty of notable losses and I ended the week with just over £31 in my account, which gives me a week’s profit of £9, but that’s still a full £59 down for October.

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