Did some Japanese league games on Saturday morning.
Saturdays Trading (24/09/11)
G-Osaka 0-2 Kofu – Lost £3.50 . I started by laying Under 3.5 goals just after half time. I laid it in increments of 1.13, 1.05. After the score went 0-1, I laid it again when it got down to 1.07 – with a total liability of £3.00 (over £30.00 green).
I could have traded out for scratch when the score went 0-1 in the 62nd minute, but as Osaka were strong favourites and don’t often fail to score I left the bet to run.
At 0-1, I also later laid Under 2.5 goals at increments of 1.2, 1.07 and 1.04 for a liability of £3.50 with over £35.00 showing green. I then laid the Correct Score for £3.00 at 1.31 (£1.00 liability) expecting an Osaka equaliser.
Luckily the under dogs scored a second late on, which won my CS lay and covered my Under 3.5 goals bet. I then hoped for a late Osaka consolation for my Under 2.5 lay, which would have given me a massive green, but unfortunately it didn’t come. I got involved in too many bets and traded the game fairly badly in my view.
Kawasaki 1-1 Shimizu – Lost £1.00. I checked the statistics and both of these sides appeared to have goals in them. So with this in mind and the score 0-0 at half time I put up a lay of Under 2.5 goals for £15.00 at 1.16 with a liability of £2.40. At the time the price was in the 1.2s, so I knew a goal could scupper my bet. yes, you’ve guessed it, at 1.17 the suspended sign appeared for the first goal and my bet wasn’t matched, I wasn’t amused, it was followed by a fairly swift equaliser which annoyed me even more. I ended up laying the Correct Score late on for £3.00 at 1.3 for a loss of around £1.00.
Iwata 1-0 Niigata – Won £3.00. The frustration of missing a lay in the above game made me get involved in a game I shouldn’t off. I know I won on this match, but it was a risky trade in my view. There is only one 0-0 in both of these teams recent fixtures, but Niigata games aren’t the most productive in the goals markets, for this reason I believe I should have left this game alone.
Anyway, I laid Under 1.5 goals for £12.00 at 1.25 with a £3.00 liability. No goal came so I laid the Correct Score (0-0) for £3.00 when it got down to 1.3 (£1.00 liability) to hopefully cover my Under 1.5 lay. I then laid it again for another £3.00 at 1.13, and with a late winner for the home side, I ended £3.00 up on this trade.
Not a great start to the day with the J.league trades, both results and discipline wise. I kept an eye on Rangers in the lunch time game, but they were 0-2 up away at Dunfermline in less than 20 minutes, so I didn’t get involved with them.
Mainz 1-2 Dortmund Lost £1.00. Not sure exactly what happened here. I laid Under 3.5 goals very late on (score was 1-1) for £33.00 at 1.03, Dortmund scored at around the 90 minute mark. Was trying to trade out for an all round green and the suspended sign came up with the Correct Score price trading at 1.2, I thought happy days, another goal. It was actually full time. Very strange.
Middlesbrough 0-0 Ipswich Lost £5.50. I laid Under 2.5 goals in 2nd half at 1.08 for £25.00 (£2.00 liability). Later laid the Correct Score to cover this bet and a losing (at the time) trade in the Portsmouth V Blackpool match.
Portsmouth 1-0 Blackpool – Won £7.00. I laid Under 1.5 goals for £8.00 at 1.25 with £2.00 liability. As I mentioned in the trade above, I was basically laying the Correct Score in both games to cover both bets. Late goal arrived and I made a slight profit on the two games combined.
I did expect the goal to come from Blackpool in this game as they were the ones who seemed to be making all the chances according to the stats, when I looked at one stage in the 2nd half, Portsmouth hadn’t even managed a shot on target.
Ath Bilbao 1-1 Villarreal – Lost £1.75. I laid Under 3.5 goals for £25.00 at 1.03 (75p liability). Then laid the Correct Score at 1.3 for £3.00 with £1.00 liability.
Stoke 1-1 Man Utd – Lost £2.00. Had a feeling this one might finish 1-1 so didn’t get involved too heavily. Laid Under 3.5 goals (at 1-1) and tried to cover bet with Correct Score lay.
Lokomotiv Sofia 0-0 Cherno More – Lost £4.00. Laid Under 1.5 goals late on for £3.00 liability, then laid Correct Score for £1.00 liability. Both lost, don’t ask me what I knew about this game, as I haven’t a clue.
Real Madrid 6-2 Rayo Vallecano – Won £7.00. Could have been more. I had £3.00 on Any Unquoted at 4.4 (for around £10.00 win), but as my last bet went tits up, I played safe and traded out for a £4.00 all round green at half time (2-0). Big mistake, Real scored their 3rd within about 5 minutes of the restart. Also laid the half time score at 1.3 for £3.00, which also won.
I’ve wrote it in previous blog postings, how many times do you trade out of Real or Barca only to see the original bet come in easily!!! This was a prime example of a previous bet influencing the current one, also I suppose I was taking into consideration that Madrid had failed to score in their previous two fixtures and might not be at their most confident.
Breda 1-0 Utrecht – Won £1.75. Started off with a lay of Under 1.5 goals at 0-0 late on for £10.00 at 1.3 (£3.00 liability). I then laid the Correct Score at 1.3 for £3.00 to cover my Under 1.5 lay, goal arrived and I bought back £1.25 of my Under 1.5 red, leaving some green in case of a 2nd goal.
Napoli 0-0 Fiorentina– Lost £8.00. Started to watch the 2nd half on Betfair and the game seemed to be remarkably open for an Italian league game. With this in mind I laid Under 2.5 goals, I then laid Under 1.5 goals, and then the Correct Score to cover the lot. Got involved in too many bets on one game, slipped into old bad habits and it cost me.
Sao Caetano 2-2 Icasa – Won £22.00. As a result of the frustrations of the Napoli match losses, I got involved in two Brazilian games I probably shouldn’t have. I laid Under 3.5 goals (when 1-1) for £23.00 at 1.2 and 1.12. Goal arrived in 86th minute and I was trying to green out, there was sod all liquidity in the Under 3.5 goals market and I just couldn’t get matched. Then another goal arrived and it was happy (very, very lucky) days.
Bragantino SP 1-1 Portuguesa SP – Lost £5.50. Like above, I only got involved because of the Napoli game. No such luck in this one, I laid Under 3.5 goals (£4.00 liability) at 1-1, and then the Correct Score when it reached 1.3 (£1.50 liability), no goals and a double loss.
Ponte Preta 2-1 Duque de Caxias Won £3.00. Just laid the Correct Score late on when it was 1-1, 90th minute winner gave me nice bonus win.
Flamengo 2-1 America MG Won £1.00. I laid Under 3.5 goals in increments up to a liability of £4.50. I then laid the Correct Score (1-1) for £4.50 win to cover the Under 3.5 lay, late goal arrived and I then bought back some of my Under 3.5 goals red, leaving plenty of green on Overs just in case.
That was it for Saturday night, some lucky late night trades on Brazilian football – which I have to admit I know nothing about – got me back on track. I didn’t have a bet on Sunday as I was at a Christening, will publish Monday’s results and end of week profits later in week.