When is the right time to green up and get out?
A trading technique I use a lot is to lay Under 1.5 goals in the 70th minute of a game that is still 0-0 and that I expect goals in. I always green up after the first goal and depending on the teams involved, I either go 50/50 green or 25% green on Unders and 75% Overs.
Another trade and slight variation of this I sometimes use is laying Under 2.5 goals at the start of the 2nd half if a game is still 0-0, the problem and uncertainty that arises here is in the instance of a goal before or around the 60 minute mark, there is always plenty of time for a 2nd goal. So what do I do?
This situation arose last Saturday in La Liga in the game between Granada and Villarreal, I traded the game for a relative low loss of £3.00. I started off by laying Under 2.5 goals at around the 55th minute mark. The price was 1.14 on
Almost instantly Granada scored, in fact it was within a minute of me placing the bet. Excellent, I can now trade out for a nice win as Under 2.5 goals is now trading at 1.42.
But, I only partially traded out, the game ended 1-0 and as I also ended up laying the Correct Score later in the match (in an attempt to cover my bet when it became obvious that Over 2.5 goals had no chance), I ended up losing £3.00, rather than taking some green in the 56th minute
At first I was kicking myself for being greedy at the time of the goal, but on reflection I’m now not so sure I was wrong.
For example, if I had just switched my computer on to start trading and I noticed that at the 60 minute mark, Granada, a newly promoted side were 1-0 up at home to Villarreal, an established side who regularly finish high in La Liga, then I would most certainly have laid Under 2.5 goals if the score was still 1-0 at around the 70 minute mark, as I would have been expecting an equaliser.
Rather than laying Granada, I would usually lay the goals market in case Granada managed a 2nd (that’s another debate in itself for another day).
So was I really wrong not to trade out? I don’t believe there is a definitive answer to that question, some people would say yes, and I believe some would also say no.
Obviously on this occasion the right thing to do was to trade out, but that’s said with hindsight. If Villarreal had equalised around the 70 minute mark, the price would have been Evens and I could have had an even better win (than the green I could have taken). I would have been kicking myself if I had traded out and this had happened.
Having decided to stay in the bet, if Villarreal had equalised I would have been patting myself on the back and telling myself it was a smart and obvious trade.
This leads me to another question…. As enough bets go down due to no goals at all, is it advisable to take a decision as I did in this instance and stay in the trade to try and compensate for the bets with no goals? Or do I simply get out for small profits no matter what on all occasions?
To be honest, as I said earlier I think it is an impossible question to answer.
I could have taken a minimal green from this game, some will say that is better than red and that it true. But a lot of small percentage wins can be wiped out by one loss, that’s why occasionally I need to win a bit bigger. My general trade of laying Under 1.5 goals in the 70th minute has no exit strategy, it is a bet I have accepted I am going to lose on at times and I have to cover that with bigger wins.
If you get tempted by the big win, maybe you are the sort of person who needs to get out at the first available opportunity as your judgement might become distorted by the green eyed monster. If you can maintain discipline and keep a clear head, maybe on certain instances it is worth staying in the trade.
For example, why would you trade out of a Barcelona game after they go 1-0 up? As on most occasions they go on to win 3 or 4-0, and you sit there thinking why the hell did I trade out at 1-0 when I could easily have won more.
I tend to trade in running these days, taking the teams involved and the match situation into account. If I don’t have confidence in another goal, I get out. If I do, I stay in.
I’m still not convinced I did the wrong thing in the Villarreal example I gave, maybe I should have greened up after it went 1-0 on 56 minutes and then went back in at the 70 minute mark (another entry point I use) and laid Under 2.5 goals again. Apart from that slight alteration, I’m currently struggling to convince myself one way or another. Maybe in future, that slight alteration is the way to go.
On the whole I think I will stick to my policy of judging each game on it’s own individual merits. I know that gives me licence to hang myself at times, but I have to learn to judge calculated risks better – and most importantly, get my match selections right.