It could have been a lot worse
A major disaster (in betting terms) was averted this weekend, but some questionable tactics were employed in doing so.
I had a topsy turvy day on Saturday, but compared with that, Sunday was a complete roller coaster. Before I get onto Sunday’s fiasco, here are Saturday’s trading results……
Saturday’s Trading (17/09/11)
Blackburn v Arsenal – Won £4.00. Laid Under 6.5 goals when score was 2-2 for £10.00 at 1.13 with £1.30 liability. Two quick Blackburn goals meant I could green up for £4.00 all round. Great start to the day.
H Berlin v Augsburg – Lost £4.00. Easy come, easy go. Score went 2-2 and as Berlin were odds on favourites I expected another home goal. I laid Under 5.5 goals for £10.00 at 1.3 for £3.00 liability. No goal arrived so I laid Correct Score to cover bet. Finished 2-2.
I then had a brainwave to lay all the promoted sides at half time in the Premier league. Norwich, QPR and Swansea were all 2-0 up at half time and I wrongly thought at least one of them wouldn’t win.
Bolton v Norwich – Lost 50p. Laid Norwich at half time at 1.10 for £10.00 with £1.10 liability. Score went 1-2 so I covered my bet. Had 50p on 1-3 late on to ensure a profit no matter who scored. Finished 1-2.
Swansea V West Brom – Lost £4.25. Laid Swansea (2-0) at half time at 1.13 for £10.00 with liability of £1.30. Quick third goal for Swansea ruined that so I laid them again at 1.03. Then late on I laid Under 4.5 goals for £10.00 (£1.00 liability), before a Correct Score lay. Stayed 3-0.
Wolves V QPR – Lost £3.00. Laid QPR at half time, they were 1.19 so I laid £10.00 with £1.90 liability. I then later laid Under 3.5 goals, the 3rd goal came too late and the price only went back to where I started from so I reduced my loss and left some green on Overs hoping for a 4th goal. Finished 0-3.
Granada v Villarreal – Lost £3.00. I laid Under 2.5 goals just before Granada scored in the 56th minute. Excellent, I can now trade out for a nice win. But no, the green eyed monster took over and I only traded out half of my red and stayed in as I expected the yellow submarines to equalise. I think I’m right in saying that they missed a bloody penalty too. Finished 1-0 and I lost on Correct Score as well.
In fairness if I had switched my computer on and seen 1-0 to Granada after an hour, I would have laid Under 2.5 goals, so can’t beat myself up about it too much.
Trabzonspor v Istanbul BB – Lost £2.50. Laid Under 2.5 goals at half time. No goal came I laid Under 1.5 after around 70 minutes, got an away goal in the 87 minute so I traded out for a bit of a green and hoped for an equaliser. Finished 0-1 and topped off a bad day all round.
I ended up losing £13.25 on Saturday. What followed on Sunday was nothing short of a discipline and brain malfunction. I’m not even going to attempt to go through the results as there is over 5 pages of them in my Betfair account, I’d be here until Christmas trying to evaluate them, and that would be if I could even remember what happened with half of them.
I’ve clearly got involved in way too many matches, and most – probably about 80% – of them were matches well outside of the criteria I laid down in late August. All in all I traded a massive 22 different games, and I didn’t place my first bet until around 4.30 in the afternoon.
There was also multiple lays in these fixtures, I would have started off with laying Under 2.5 goals, then 1.5 goals, then Correct Scores, etc.
I started Sunday with £103.00 in my account, I soon found myself down at about £85.00 and with a larger than ‘my system‘ allows bet going on Porto, my account was showing just £70.00.
The turning point seemed to come when I laid Under 5.5 goals in the Mattersburg v Austria Vienna match, the score was 2-2 at the time. There seemed to be a massive difference in the Correct Score price (around 1.90) and the Under 5.5 goals price (1.06), so I laid £50.00 on Under 5.5 goals for £3.00 liability and almost instantly the suspended sign came up, I couldn’t have timed it better.
I immediately traded out to around £12 green on Under 5.5 and £25.00 green on Over 5.5, left it 5 minutes and laid some more Under 5.5 and there was a late 6th goal (finished 2-4) giving me a win of around £30.00. If only they were all like that.
I also backed 3-1, 3-0 and AUQ in the Benfica match, which strictly speaking is against my current staking plan, but as I was in reckless mode I just went for it and it came in for another £10.00 win.
After another couple of successful trades, my account was amazingly up at £142.00. I then did a couple of totally uneducated stupid late night trades which lost me £17.00, before eventually calling it a day at about 11pm.
I didn’t have a bet on Monday, so after such a ridiculous week I would have to say to end it £3.00 up on the previous week’s total was very acceptable, and/or very lucky. From my £100.00 starting bank, I’m currently at £125.00.
In a way Sunday’s performance cost me a win on Monday. Sporting Lisbon were 0-2 up away from home at Rio Ave, it was half time and they were trading at 1.04/1.05. Anyone who has followed Sporting’s results lately would know that they are the sort of team to toss that sort of lead away, and so they did, as by the 63rd minute it was 2-2 and the draw was favourite at Evens, with Sporting out to 2.8.
Sporting were well worth a lay at 1.04, but as I had earlier decided to have a night off to try and start to discipline myself again I left it alone. Under 5.5 goals was also worth a lay after it went 2-2, again I left it alone, and again the goal came right on schedule (74 mins). So basically, Sunday’s antics further cost me on Monday.
I hope to have now got that all out of my system and my account just about survived to tell the tale. I’m going to try and keep things tight this week and try to justify every bet I place with good reasons for doing so. I need to keep telling myself that continued growth is the aim here, no matter how small.
One or two games, like Granada V Villarreal on Saturday have posed a question or two for me that I will go into more detail with in a blog post later on in the week.
I’ve also now got access to the members area of the Assured Soccer Profits System, at a first glance it looks very impressive with video tutorials and plenty of statistics, so I will spend the week looking into it further and will report back when I have sussed it out a bit more. From what I’ve read on Twitter and other blogs about the system, the vibes seem quite good.