It would be fair to say that Wednesday night’s Champions League trading didn’t quite go according to plan (no bets on Tuesday).
I checked at half time to see that four of the eight games were still 0-0 so I knew that there was some potential, straight away Real Madrid and Inter Milan caught my eye.
I tried to get a bet on Dinamo Zagreb V Real Madrid, I had my lay of Under 2.5 goals first in the queue at 1.3 and the suspended came up for a goal at 1.31. Price immediately went out to 1.85, I wasn’t amused!
Ajax V Lyon Lost £6.00. I only got involved in this bloody game as I read on Twitter at half time that there had been a lot of chances in the game. Pre match I had no intention of getting involved as the two sides seemed evenly matched and in general that goes against my match selection criteria.
I laid Under 2.5 goals after about 55 mins. I then laid Under 1.5 goals after about 75 mins, before topping things off with a Correct Score lay to cover all my losses (with hindsight the word chasing stands out to me here), got my comeuppance as the game finished 0-0.
I’m not blaming anybody but myself here, I know that when someone tweets (or says) that a game looks to have goals in it, that sometimes you will get goals, and sometimes you won’t. But the bottom line is that this game was well outside the original criteria I decided on when I started this particular trading method.
Even if goals had come, it was still a wrong call and I shouldn’t have got involved. I generally look for a game where one of the teams has an odds on Starting Price, and is preferably at home. I believe Ajax were just over Even money to win this one.
Inter Milan V Trabzonspor – Broke Even. I intended to wait until 60, 70 minutes and lay Under 1.5 goals expecting a late goal or two from Inter. Got my lay of £10 (£3 liability) on @ 1.3, and as it was Trabzonspor who ended up scoring first (in the 76th minute) I left all the green on over 1.5 goals, obviously expecting an Inter equaliser.
Obviously this turned out to be the wrong choice as it finished 0-1. Not sure if I was totally wrong to do it this way though, in similar instances how many times have the favourites equalised and the Overs has come in?
But the intention of this system is also to try and leave a game with some green. So I could call this a badly executed trade as I came away with nothing after Trabzonspor scored. What I should have done was made sure I left with about 20-25% green (on Unders), leaving the majority of the green (75-80%) on Overs, to ensure some profit.
This in a nut shell is one of the major dilemmas of this system. Do you green up all round after one goal? Or if the underdog scores first do you leave the green on one side in anticipation of the favourite equalising?
In hindsight with the Ajax bet going tits up, it would have been better to have left with some profit from the Inter match. But at the same time one late goal in either game would have reduced, or totally wiped out my overall red.
Itagui Ditaires v Deportivo Cali – Won £1.00. I laid Under 3.5 goals late on with the score at 1-1. Itagui were odds on favourites at the start of the match, so I have no problem with this trade. No goal came so I laid the Correct Score (@ 1.3) to cover my bet and hopefully take a small profit. It worked as Itagui scored a winner with what must have been the last kick of the game.
Finished the night £5 down thanks to the obvious blunder.